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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
 
922
WTNT31 KNHC 301444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 18.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and
Brava.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago
* Fogo
* Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.9 North, longitude 18.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to
continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo
Verde Islands on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a topical storm during the next
day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a
tropical cyclone tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These
rains could produce life-threatening flash floods.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo
Verde Islands on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Click to expand...
882
WTNT41 KNHC 301444
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has
continued to become better organized, and is producing a large
area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a
well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical
storm could form an any time today or Friday. Given the high
chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a
portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Most of the intensity
guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast.

The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow
pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west-
northwest during the next few days. By the end of the forecast
period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system
reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. This is consistent with
the output of the global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 12.9N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/0000Z 13.2N 20.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 31/1200Z 13.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 14.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 15.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 16.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
Click to expand...
 
Is this the system that is expected to head out to sea?
 
979
WTNT31 KNHC 301734
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 19.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago
* Fogo
* Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.9 North, longitude 19.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual
turn toward the west-northwest is expected to continue during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to
move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm during the
next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a
tropical cyclone tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to
8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo
Verde Islands on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Click to expand...
 
[
428
WTNT31 KNHC 302341
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 20.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago
* Fogo
* Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.1 North, longitude 20.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 11 mph (18 km/h), and a general west to west-northwest
track with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the disturbance or the tropical
cyclone is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde
Islands on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is
expected to become a tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a
tropical cyclone tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to
8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo
Verde Islands on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


/QUOTE]
Click to expand...
 
360
WTNT31 KNHC 310239
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 20.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santiago
* Fogo
* Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.2 North, longitude 20.9 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion toward
the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the disturbance
or the tropical cyclone is expected to move near or over the
southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is expected to become
a tropical storm Friday or Friday night.

Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a
tropical cyclone on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to
8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo
Verde Islands on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Click to expand...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yes, it's not going to impact any part of land fortunately.
Click to expand...

Well, technically the Cape Verde islands will be impacted but that’s about it. If it stays weak and takes longer to organize than modeled there’s always a chance to but it should recurve safely away from the US.
 
models have shifted west but I still expect a recurve for now... it's gonna be so far NE already, really hard to get to the US from there

The GFS does it get close to Bermuda before it goes NE though

The FV GFS is moving west near Bermuda at day 12 with insane ridging along the EC, summer just doesn't want to go away?
 
Last edited:
The 0Z GEFS (~20 members) has two camps now split pretty evenly: camp 1 recurves well east while camp 2 makes to it at least 60W with some of those threatening/hitting Bermuda. One of camp 2 actually hits the Delmarva Peninsula of the US east coast. Prior runs had either all or almost all in camp 1 although 1 on the 18Z GEFS hit the US (SC) and 2 on the 6Z threatened the US east coast. Neither of the last 2 EPS (51 members) hit the US. However, regarding the CDN ens (~20 members), 2 from the 12Z and 3 from the 0Z of 24 hours ago hit the CONUS. I haven't seen the new 0z CDN ens yet.
 
EPS is evenly split amongst an OTS route, PTC 6/Florence just meandering SE of Bermuda, or getting pushed westward towards the SE US &/or eastern seaboard. Don't write this storm off as a "fish" storm...

eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_264 (2).png
 
Yeah if PTC 6 continues to take it's time organizing and developing, the chances of it recurving safely away from the US will begin to diminish especially if the ridging builds back in strong like some models are hinting at.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah if PTC 6 continues to take it's time organizing and developing, the chances of it recurving safely away from the US will begin to diminish especially if the ridging builds back in strong like some models are hinting at.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's not organizing as fast as the models expected. Even the GEFS had a few members send it towards the US yesterday.
 
175
WTNT31 KNHC 311437
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

...A TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT FORMED YET BUT STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 22.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.7 North, longitude 22.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to continue for
the next three to four days. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as
a tropical storm later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or Saturday.

Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a
tropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo
Verde Islands later today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Click to expand...
176
WTNT41 KNHC 311437
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

The circulation is better defined this morning, but the associated
convection is rather weak. In fact, Dvorak numbers have not
changed overall, and do not support classifying the system as a
tropical cyclone yet. It seems like both NHC and the global models
predicted the development of a cyclone too soon. Nevertheless, the
environmental conditions are favorable for both genesis and
strengthening, and a tropical depression or a storm is expected to
form later today or Saturday. The shear does not appear to be a
problem at this time, but the cyclone should be moving over marginal
SSTs, limiting the amount of intensification. The HWRF model
changed its tune to a more reasonable one, and it now shows more
modest strengthening. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous
one, and continues to be very close to the intensity consensus.

The disturbance is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees
at about 11 kt. The subtropical high should continue to steer the
system toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward
speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the
ridge will induce a more northwestward track over the open Atlantic
Ocean. This is supported by the track guidance which continues to
be in very good agreement for the next 3 days. Thereafter, the
guidance envelope widens and becomes bounded by the westernmost
ECMWF and the easternmost GFS models decreasing the confidence
in the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 13.7N 22.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0000Z 14.1N 24.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 01/1200Z 14.8N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 15.5N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 16.2N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.5N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 22.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
Click to expand...
 
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