• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern June 29-July 2 Heat Wave

Iceagewhereartthou said:
Any heat wave stinks and no heatwaves are the way to go. However, if one has to experience a heat wave, those are the best kind to have.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I hate summer but this one up until this hasn't been that bad. A stretch that was too dry but temp wise it has been good.
 
FFC just issued Heat Advisories for their entire forecast area under 1400', with the exception of Lookout Mountain.

1688154255977.png
 
We only hit 98 after 100 yesterday and 99 on Wednesday. Going the right way here and most of the next week is actually below normal
 
_nevi said:
People on this forum cry about the percieved dearth of snowfall in the SE during winter ... getting rain in Texas during summer seems that way as well. Depending on how this summer goes, I may have to write off Texas as a cursed, forsaken state.
Click to expand...
Either way you slice it Texas has still gotten more snow and ice storms and longer lasting arctic air than anyone in the SE outside for the mountains the last 3 winters. No matter how little rain or how big a drought they are in in certain parts of the state or how many times they have hit 100 degrees over and over and over the last several summers they still seem to kick our butt in the the winter weather department here lately for whatever reason whether it is La Nina or not they have been taking it to us recently when it comes to winter weather. Hope it changes next winter but who knows. At least Nina is history. Will see.
 
_nevi said:
Maybe it's La Nina. Or maybe it's, more specifically, the oscillations associated with La Nina (-PNA and/or -PDO). I don't know what it is. But something definitely needs to change because the winter cold snaps are also a part of the curse: their potency (particularly Feb 21') compared to years prior, in conjunction with the heat and drought, makes things far more stressful for plant life across the state than in the past.

Now, the period from spring 21 through spring 22 was relatively nice (including both a nice summer rain-wise, with the greatest warm December the following winter). The cold snaps weren't as potent/focused on Texas.

The Jan 22' events brought more impact to the SE (namely the Carolinas), while Dec 22 had a more board-wide involement of cold anomalies. Early 23 (late Jan, early Feb) featured icy weather in Texas, but impacts were limited to a specific region (a triangle from Midland to DFW, then SW down I-35 to San Antonio),with elsewhere avoiding it.

It seems to be the tendency of specific amplified patterns in these recent years, with winter western trough/eastern ridging and then vice versa during summer. Both are of no benefit to Texas: instead, the ideal would be more zonal and/or elongated patterns (for example, a Bermuda pattern ridge extending through versus a Sonoran bubble ridge). As a bonus, the zonal patterns span the length of the South, so there's better chance of board wide impacts for stuff like winter storms (for you all that like them).
Click to expand...

It called Arctic Amplification that's weakening the jet-stream. Any zonal pattern will be brief.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
_nevi said:
Maybe it's La Nina. Or maybe it's, more specifically, the oscillations associated with La Nina (-PNA and/or -PDO). I don't know what it is. But something definitely needs to change because the winter cold snaps are also a part of the curse: their potency (particularly Feb 21') compared to years prior, in conjunction with the heat and drought, makes things far more stressful for plant life across the state than in the past.

Now, the period from spring 21 through spring 22 was relatively nice (including both a nice summer rain-wise, with the greatest warm December the following winter). The cold snaps weren't as potent/focused on Texas.

The Jan 22' events brought more impact to the SE (namely the Carolinas), while Dec 22 had a more board-wide involement of cold anomalies. Early 23 (late Jan, early Feb) featured icy weather in Texas, but impacts were limited to a specific region (a triangle from Midland to DFW, then SW down I-35 to San Antonio),with elsewhere avoiding it.

It seems to be the tendency of specific amplified patterns in these recent years, with winter western trough/eastern ridging and then vice versa during summer. Both are of no benefit to Texas: instead, the ideal would be more zonal and/or elongated patterns (for example, a Bermuda pattern ridge extending through versus a Sonoran bubble ridge). As a bonus, the zonal patterns span the length of the South, so there's better chance of board wide impacts for stuff like winter storms (for you all that like them).
Click to expand...

_nevi said:
Yea, I'm aware — it seems to be favoring particular patterns (i.e. western trough during winter, Sonoran ridging during summer) that is turning Texas into a cursed, forsaken state (as opposed to the ridges and troughs being more "randomized").
Click to expand...

I mean, last winter overall still ended up above average temp-wise for Texas.

DFW averages 2" of snow per year, and it's perfectly normal for it to get brief cold snaps and intermittent snow/ice events. In total, DFW got about 1.8" of sleet last year, right in line with climo.

Feb '21 was indeed highly unusual, especially with respect to coverage/duration and the fact that ERCOT's capacity is under even more strain these days because of the explosive population growth, but even it wasn't entirely unprecedented (see 2011 and 1983).

As far as Summers, 2019-2021 were fairly pedestrian by Texas standards, if not a bit on the cool side. And don't forget, the hottest Summer of all was way back in 1980. With respect to this Summer, it's too early to judge how it will playout. Although with the Canadian wildfires having similar cooling effects in the atmosphere as the big Volcano eruption did in 1992 across the NE US and the burgeoning El Nino amplifying the STJ, any ridging and potential heatwaves going forward are looking a lot messier, especially for North Texas (see the way the pattern played out through mid-June for example).

But my overall point is there isn't enough hard statistical evidence to suggest the weather patterns are becoming any more wonky for us than usual, other than the frequency of tornado outbreaks having taken a huge nose dive (which is a good thing).
 
Last edited:
NorthDFWwx said:
I mean, last winter overall still ended up above average temp-wise for Texas.

DFW averages 2" of snow per year, and it's perfectly normal for it to get brief cold snaps and intermittent snow/ice events. In total, DFW got about 1.8" of sleet last year, right in line with climo.

Feb '21 was indeed highly unusual, especially with respect to coverage/duration and the fact that ERCOT's capacity is under even more strain these days because of the explosive population growth, but even it wasn't entirely unprecedented (see 2011 and 1983).

As far as Summers, 2019-2021 were fairly pedestrian by Texas standards, if not a bit on the cool side. And don't forget, the hottest Summer of all was way back in 1980. With respect to this Summer, it's too early to judge how it will playout. Although with the Canadian wildfires having similar cooling effects in the atmosphere as the big Volcano eruption did in 1992 across the NE US and the burgeoning El Nino amplifying the STJ, any ridging and potential heatwaves going forward are looking a lot messier, especially for North Texas (see the way the pattern played out through mid-June for example).

But my overall point is there isn't enough hard statistical evidence to suggest the weather patterns are becoming any more wonky for us than usual, other than the frequency of tornado outbreaks having taken a huge nose dive (which is a good thing).
Click to expand...

Yeah I mean we can sit here and talk about 2021 all day but I lived in Dallas from 2014-2021 and I had exactly one winter besides that with a real snowfall... It was rough. 5 winters in a row nothing more than a flake basically

Also the 90s were bad for snow too while the east coast had the blizzards so I think a lot of it is cycles

The summers have always been iffy outside of a few days here and there but still 1980 and 2011 haven't been topped. Just imagine if it was over 110 everyday like it was then...

Heck up here our all time high is still from 1936! Has yet to be topped
 
Last edited:
Got to 94.3 before the storms came. Now it’s raining and trying to blow my corn over yet again.
 
First 90 degree day of the year for about 2 hours and it stormed and dropped it right back down in the 80’s and with cloud covered. Good luck to everybody in the mid to upper 90’s. I’ll at least be at most 90-91 this early week which is a win if the rest of the SE is hovering around 100 during the summer.
 
Already 85 but I can see cumulus starting to pop. 1.07” yesterday for our best rain in a long time.
 
I don't think I have ever seen a watch for only a 3 1/2 hour time period before.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 433 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-033-063-065-069-077-083-101-127-131-135-145-181-183-185-
195-022200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0433.230702T1825Z-230702T2200Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE CASWELL DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE
HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH
NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PERSON
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WILSON
 
Some storms to my north.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN VANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

* AT 316 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BUFFALO SPRINGS TO NEAR VIRGILINA TO NEAR ROXBORO, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OXFORD, STOVALL, DABNEY, TUNGSTEN, SATTERWHITE POINT MARINA, STEELE CREEK MARINA & CAMPGROUND, BULLOCKSVILLE, KERR LAKE AND JOHN H KERR RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES, POWER LINES, AND DAMAGE MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't think I have ever seen a watch for only a 3 1/2 hour time period before.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 433 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-033-063-065-069-077-083-101-127-131-135-145-181-183-185-
195-022200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0433.230702T1825Z-230702T2200Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE CASWELL DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE
HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH
NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PERSON
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WILSON
Click to expand...

I have..
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top