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Pattern July Fry

SD said:
We are going to find a way to end up with that next ridge over the region and it's going to be terrible
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The models seem to be going back and forth with this. Some now have another ridge right on top of us, but it was WAY out in fantasyland. The next one will probably not be over us, but it has been trending east slowly. I have not looked at any 12z stuff yet, so things may have changed. I would not like to be in the southern plains in about a week, though. I think they are in for it out there.
 
Just looked at the 12z GFS and it shows a monster ridge over the Rockies in the long range, where it stays all the way through. Another ridge develops just off of the southeast coast late in the run. Our area looks to be in a weakness between the 2 ridges, but this out at 300+ hours and of course it'll change.
 
The 12z Euro is horrible in the 300+ hour range. A 600 dm ridge centered on Memphis TENN. At 342 it has Columbia SC at 108. Thankfully this is way out here and will hopefully change.

I just looked again and it's incredible. It shows a LOW of 90 where I live on 7-19-2026.
 
This Is Fine GIF
 
JHS said:
The 12z Euro is horrible in the 300+ hour range. A 600 dm ridge centered on Memphis TENN. At 342 it has Columbia SC at 108. Thankfully this is way out here and will hopefully change.

I just looked again and it's incredible. It shows a LOW of 90 where I live on 7-19-2026.
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Yes we are in trouble. Models have been trying to retrograde the ridge west for about 3 months and it happens for a couple hours then its right back in the east. Bet the streak
 
Ensembles keep reverting back to having the trough axis directly overhead. It's not ideal. I keep seeing the CPC wanting to put AN precip over us and keep thinking Why?
 
Made it to 100.8 today. ILM saying dewpoints are going up tomorrow which won't be fun. Hopefully enough debris clouds from any storms that develop will help.
 
Looking at todays NWS forecast for my location it seems the ridge is breaking down somewhat and we have a chance for storms. High for my work location is at 98 and a 60% chance for rain tonight seems like a win. That said I wouldn't be surprised if we dont see a drop as that has been the norm for the area.
 
With these runs the last couple of days there's a shot reporting stations like Myrtle Beach don't get enough rainfall by 8/1 to even get over 10" for the year. Sounds absurd but here we are with NWS reporting just under 9" year to date.
 
Sky is looking a little more stormy today with the clouds blowing up. Some storms are firing up now in NC. Hope to get some storms come through here in the next couple of days.
 
The house was nailed by a thunderstorm while I was away today. It hasn’t even cleared yet, but with it having slacked off, there was steam coming up off the road.

I’m afraid that this probably came too early, and it’s going to clear up, and we’ll have steamy crap tonight when I try to walk.
 
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