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Pattern Jarring January

Seems like the AO wants to take another dip around that time frame as well.

ao.sprd2.gif
 
12z cmc tried to move moisture in next Thursday Friday like the Euro. But the cmc shoots the high offshore pretty quickly while the Euro keeps the cold around for longer

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12z gfs has the same general idea as the Euro and cmc next Thursday/ Friday

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Looks like the GFS is breaking image.png a little piece of energy off of the NS down into the southeast. CMC also has it but it drops it over Virginia

Edit: GFS also has a 1030 HP parked in South Georgia which is killing us
 
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Hmmm the GFS is showing something very weird over the Greenland area in the 180hr+ range. I don't know what that is, but it's interesting.
 
Arcc said:
Hmmm the GFS is showing something very weird over the Greenland area in the 180hr+ range. I don't know what that is, but it's interesting.
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Euro has the same idea which really slows down the flow keeping the colder air in place longer . That's how the euro kept the southeast cold long enough on the 00z run for that winter storm

12z gfs
00z Euro
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c443a42b16aef4381c158154140b44cc.jpg


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CMC was actually really close to something on the 19th. Send me a little clipper action into the Apps and I'll be happy. I will be at the Indian Casino that weekend
 
Storm5 said:
Euro has the same idea which really slows down the flow keeping the colder air in place longer . That's how the euro kept the southeast cold long enough on the 00z run for that winter storm

12z gfs
00z Euro
78cf4868d67e838feafcd55cd3fb52f0.jpg
c443a42b16aef4381c158154140b44cc.jpg


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Makes it even more interesting. When the GFS was posted above, I said to myself there is only one way that look would lead to a snow storm and that one way is what it's showing. Been a long time.
 
Thing is, will that even verify even with the Euro? I'm worried it won't. Something just tells me we might get screwed again.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Thing is, will that even verify even with the Euro? I'm worried it won't. Something just tells me we might get screwed again.
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I’ll never in my life trust a model again, even 3 days out. I use to think If you were within 3/4 days you just had to worry about it shifting around some or getting a little weaker/stronger but no even 3 days out it’s bad.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I’ll never in my life trust a model again, even 3 days out. I use to think If you were within 3/4 days you just had to worry about it shifting around some or getting a little weaker/stronger but no even 3 days out it’s bad.
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Can the models be bad ? Yes, but they are just one tool used to make a forecast . I think In the southeast it's the unrealistic expectations that make it seem like the models are busting all the time when in reality it's people forgetting we live in the southeast . Let's be real winter weather is rare in the southeast and SOOOO many thing have to come together for systems to work out. I think people see systems on the models and just assume it's logical without really understanding how the model got to thst conclusion in the first . Many times you can look at 500mb and then the surface output and realize the two don't match up. But i think it all starts with the unrealistic expectations
 
I have been saying I wouldn't be surprised to see something happening wintry here the end of next week since we're going to be so warm tomorrow. It seems for whatever reason we get a good shot at winter weather here about 7 to 10 days after hitting near 70 in winter. Maybe the rubber band snapping back.
 
Storm5 said:
Can the models be bad ? Yes, but they are just one tool used to make a forecast . I think In the southeast it's the unrealistic expectations that make it seem like the models are busting all the time when in reality it's people forgetting we live in the southeast . Let's be real winter weather is rare in the southeast and SOOOO many thing have to come together for systems to work out. I think people see systems on the models and just assume it's logical without really understanding how the model got to thst conclusion in the first . Many times you can look at 500mb and then the surface output and realize the two don't match up. But i think it all starts with the unrealistic expectations
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to add to that I think people attach themselves to all the solutions the models show bringing snow while not giving just as much weight to those that don't. If I see 25/51 ensemble members on the Euro showing me getting measurable snow at HR 120 that is a huge signal for a storm, yet still statistically only 50% chance taken verbatim.
 
Storm5 said:
Can the models be bad ? Yes, but they are just one tool used to make a forecast . I think In the southeast it's the unrealistic expectations that make it seem like the models are busting all the time when in reality it's people forgetting we live in the southeast . Let's be real winter weather is rare in the southeast and SOOOO many thing have to come together for systems to work out. I think people see systems on the models and just assume it's logical without really understanding how the model got to thst conclusion in the first . Many times you can look at 500mb and then the surface output and realize the two don't match up. But i think it all starts with the unrealistic expectations
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It happens everywhere. Cantore was in Minneapolis this morning and he said they were origianally forecast to get 8-12, lowered to 5-7, then 2-4, now will end up with less than an inch.
 
Coach B said:
It happens everywhere. Cantore was in Minneapolis this morning and he said they were origianally forecast to get 8-12, lowered to 5-7, then 2-4, now will end up with less than an inch.
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Sure it happens everywhere but again , winter weather isn't that common in the southeast so expectations are crazy unrealistic down here . Up there they are happy when systems bust . I lived in Michigan for 4 years . People love it when systems bust

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