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Pattern Jarring January

Shawn said:
Well Euro's cold would be colder for most areas than the last cold snap if it were to verify. At least in many locations.
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It looks like as of now the Op may be too far west with the trough and a bit too far south. The EPS doesn’t support the cold temps for the gulf states but more or less puts it over NC/SC. Likely fake news for a lot of those areas (as of now)


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Seeing the EPS/Euro city charts, it has the coldest temps predicted of the next cold snap, plus the EPS continues slowly backing away from the moderation after that.

Edit: And the EPS did pretty well I thought with the last one.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Seeing the EPS/Euro city charts, it has the coldest temps predicted of the next cold snap, plus the EPS continues slowly backing away from the moderation after that.

Edit: And the EPS did pretty well I thought with the last one.
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EPS mean for the lowest low here is 11, well lower than the last cold snap. This is one chaotic roller coaster.
 
When you say that this cold snap will be stronger than the last one you have to take into consideration the area you're speaking of. For my area the last cold snap was 7 1/2 days without getting above freezing and two morning lows that were Sub-Zero with one being -8 there is no way this cold snap will be that strong or stronger for my area. Keep that in mind when making those statements that's all I'm asking.

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metwannabe said:
When you say that this cold snap will be stronger than the last one you have to take into consideration the area you're speaking of. For my area the last cold snap was 7 1/2 days without getting above freezing and two morning lows that were Sub-Zero with one being -8 there is no way this cold snap will be that strong or stronger for my area. Keep that in mind when making those statements that's all I'm asking.

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Yeah, TN and maybe AL will have the snow / ice cover this time, they could go pretty low
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Maybe my terminology wasn't right but that sw looks like it enters OR/WA and rides the Canadian border grabbing our moisture out of the gulf causing it to cut. Or maybe the two are phasing and it's not necessarily cutting. Idk i'm no met
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No, what's happening is the massive ULL over the NE is effectively a blender shredding anything that would come down that badly positioned ridge. No possible way to get a southern snow storm out of that unless you have some super clipper with enough moisture with it for flurries. We all know how well clippers work for us. The Euro is much better with its placement but still needs a lot of work.
 
Arcc said:
No, what's happening is the massive ULL over the NE is effectively a blender shredding anything that would come down that badly positioned ridge. No possible way to get a southern snow storm out of that unless you have some super clipper with enough moisture with it for flurries. We all know how well clippers work for us. The Euro is much better with its placement but still needs a lot of work.
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It's unbelievable that we have so much cold air to work with, but it's essentially too cold in a sense to produce a storm. Then when the pattern does relax, the cold is just about gone. Smh. Then it's nothing but rain.
 
Rain Cold said:
Maybe slowly getting there:

View attachment 2709
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You know GFS yesterday morning was similar to this although placement was different...
9d1fd07bb93df3d9ef0c01eb615c21ea.jpg


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Clayton Reid said:
It's unbelievable that we have so much cold air to work with, but it's essentially too cold in a sense to produce a storm. Then when the pattern does relax, the cold is just about gone. Smh. Then it's nothing but rain.
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It's not really because it's too cold, but why it's too cold. In this situation we are cold because of a huge PV like ULL in the wrong location. To score here we need a trend to something like 1/28/14 or like Coldrain and 1300m is talking about.
 
1300m said:
You know, ol' Rain Cold may be sniffing something out here along with the Euro. On second look, this really isn' t that bad IF that energy can shift west a little more. Somehow we still are going to need to see it get to central or preferably western Montana, or have it really, really dig hard, which maybe it can if the western ridge keeps trending stronger.

View attachment 2710

View attachment 2711

Edit: Part of the problem is that kicker coming in hot on the heels of this and shoving everything east so quickly. If that could slow down that would really help also.

Edit 2: A few of the EPS members are sniffing something too. In fact, no joke, there are more members with light snow at RDU on the 00Z run than at any point with the last system haha.
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Are we talking about a system along the EC or further west?
 
1300m said:
You're not joking, it is trying. I really don't like this setup too much but if the Euro trends stronger and further west again today at 12z I may become more interested.
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If it trends further west, would we not be at risk of getting too warm at least aloft, for any snow?
 
1300m said:
You know, ol' Rain Cold may be sniffing something out here along with the Euro. On second look, this really isn' t that bad IF that energy can shift west a little more. Somehow we still are going to need to see it get to central or preferably western Montana, or have it really, really dig hard, which maybe it can if the western ridge keeps trending stronger.

View attachment 2710

View attachment 2711

Edit: Part of the problem is that kicker coming in hot on the heels of this and shoving everything east so quickly. If that could slow down that would really help also.

Edit 2: A few of the EPS members are sniffing something too. In fact, no joke, there are more members with light snow at RDU on the 00Z run than at any point with the last system haha.
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Yeah we still got a ways to go. Need the things you mentioned to trend in the direction you mentioned. Still going to be tying to pull an inside straight, but there’s not much else to watch right now, so eyes on. If we sneak up on a period of light snow, that’s a win in my book, in this pattern! :)
 
The eps and gefs are actually both picking up on a system but there is a huge spread and not necessarily keying on the above mentioned energy . The gefs likes the idea of a system forming in Texas. Haven't really looked too closely at the eps . Will look after the 12z run
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe better to see a storm materialize slowly on the models over the next week instead of showing a big storm 7 to 10 days out. Those seem to hardly actually happen.
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That would be nice. However, I think there are now too many different models, and their ensembles, that run multiple times a day. In a cold pattern, something will let us know there's potential.
 
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