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Pattern Jarring January

BPATL said:
One thing to note, IS that they measure in the middle of a runway median only at the BUSIEST AIRPORT IN THE WORLD, very stupid...many many parts of ATL in the city limits had 6 in or more Dec 8th, and years before as well. The airport has a massive heat island effect so thier measurement readings are never accurate.
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Oh, I never knew that! I always assumed it's been a while since ATL had 6+ inches. But yeah I heard there was 10+ inches of snow in downtown Atlanta in the January 1940 storm where the airport reported 8.3 inches. So yeah that does have some merit it seems. I'll keep that in mind. It would be nice if I actually got 6 inches in my backyard tho haha.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Hey Larry. I recall you telling me that ATL got a foot of snow in one month before if I remember correctly. When was the month and year of this occurrence? Also, when was the ATL's snowiest season/year on record and how many inches? Thanks.
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They got about a foot (I think it was at or near 11.5" but I don't have the info with me right now) in 2/1895 at the official measuring station, which was then downtown, from three different storms, including 2 major snows just a few days apart!

The most seasonal total SN/IP on record is I believe either 1894-5 or 1884-5, both of which got near a foot. Not far behind are 1898-9, 1935-6, and 1982-3.
 
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18z GEFS is picking up on something for the middle of next week that wasn't there at 12z. It probably is just one member that is skewing the mean. Seems to have some cold temps around for the majority of the 16 days too.
snod.conus.png
 
packfan98 said:
18z GEFS is picking up on something for the middle of next week that wasn't there at 12z. It probably is just one member that is skewing the mean. Seems to have some cold temps around for the majority of the 16 days too.
snod.conus.png
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Probably reacting to this. Not a bad look honestly
152686252af30593d255cbe61a412974.jpg


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Mr. Grinch said:
Probably reacting to this. Not a bad look honestly
152686252af30593d255cbe61a412974.jpg


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I hope that's not a clipper, I mean you NC folk can get a few inches on rare occasions, but upstate/midlands SC snow drought would continue !
 
packfan98 said:
18z GEFS is picking up on something for the middle of next week that wasn't there at 12z. It probably is just one member that is skewing the mean. Seems to have some cold temps around for the majority of the 16 days too.
snod.conus.png
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E1 is the main member that has a major winter storm.


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Peering down the tunnel ...

There are so many other factors in play, but looking at the two major indices that have seemed to dominate ...

Screen Shot 2018-01-10 at 8.00.04 PM.png
Screen Shot 2018-01-10 at 8.00.26 PM.png

and with the MJO hanging a hard right,

How can anyone argue with ...

814temp.new.gif
 
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MichaelJ said:
What model is this? EURO looks different than this
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Here's the source ... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/
Look - I'm just sharing a thought and an observation ... not trying to start an argument or for that matter a discussion. Just posted something to think about. Or it seemed so ... :oops:
Now, I have to crash ... day job thing ... :confused:
 
We all knew that we were going to get moderation compared to how major the early month cold snap was. The question after that will be if we are able to get what the long range says we might see.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
We all knew that we were going to get moderation compared to how major the early month cold snap was. The question after that will be if we are able to get what the long range says we might see.
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I was only going out 16 days - not real long range ... indices support a warm up after the 17th of this month. Beyond that, I personally have no Magic 8 Ball.
Now, crash time ... ;)
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Not really. The PNA does go down into the negative range in the LR, but notice it keeps getting further and further away each run.
ecmwf_pna_forecast.png
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Kind of an erratic pattern shown there, but we generally want a +PNA and a -AO for the SE correct? Phil is right that we will most likely moderate until the end of January but lot of differing opinions from people on the month of Feb. Time will tell.
 
MichaelJ said:
Kind of an erratic pattern shown there, but we generally want a +PNA and a -AO for the SE correct? Phil is right that we will most likely moderate until the end of January but lot of differing opinions from people on the month of Feb. Time will tell.
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Yes. The +PNA and -AO are the two indices with the highest correlation to cold for much of the SE US.
 
GaWx said:
The ~0.50" of ZR and ~0.25" of sleet was an incredible base for the 2" of snow that SAV received on top of it all last week. As long as it stayed cold (highs in 40s and lows in 20s), the snow in shaded areas hardly melted! It became like little glaciers.
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That's a lot of zr. Was there much damage? Hopefully just slippery fun. And falling ice :)
 
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