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Pattern Jarring January

1300m said:
Oh yeah I knew you were referring to the collective southeast. And like others have been saying, for much of the region it's been a historic winter. Which is what makes it hurt all the more!
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This was one of the primary motivations for me to start reanalyzing thousands of case studies for NC going back over the last 120 years or so. I'm really curious to see which parts of the state are suffering the most and in all likelihood once I'm able to reconstruct the snowfall data for hundreds of locations across the state, odds are Raleigh is not hurting the most even though we're obviously hurting a lot. Also likely going to see more robust results wrt patterns that are most favorable for snowfall in RDU, GSO, & CLT, FAY, etc when integrating over a surrounding region of the state
 
Webberweather53 said:
This was one of the primary motivations for me to start reanalyzing thousands of case studies for NC going back over the last 120 years or so. I'm really curious to see which parts of the state are suffering the most and in all likelihood once I'm able to reconstruct the snowfall data for hundreds of locations across the state, odds are Raleigh is not hurting the most even though we're obviously hurting a lot. Also likely going to see more robust results wrt patterns that are most favorable for snowfall in RDU, GSO, & CLT, FAY, etc when integrating over a surrounding region of the state
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It feels like the past few years everyone around to the west, south, and even east have had bigger storms than Wake County. The exception I can think of is the 2010 Christmas storm.
 
Those of us SE of I-85 in NC have had many snowstorms ruined with sleet and freezing rain. Mixed bag storms seem more common now than pure snowstorms. We know how to mix!
 
Webberweather53 said:
This was one of the primary motivations for me to start reanalyzing thousands of case studies for NC going back over the last 120 years or so. I'm really curious to see which parts of the state are suffering the most and in all likelihood once I'm able to reconstruct the snowfall data for hundreds of locations across the state, odds are Raleigh is not hurting the most even though we're obviously hurting a lot. Also likely going to see more robust results wrt patterns that are most favorable for snowfall in RDU, GSO, & CLT, FAY, etc when integrating over a surrounding region of the state
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I suspect the last 5-7 years or so will show a different result than the totality of your research. Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing the analysis. Always like looking over your research.
 
packfan98 said:
Those of us SE of I-85 in NC have had many snowstorms ruined with sleet and freezing rain. Mixed bag storms seem more common now than pure snowstorms. We know how to mix!
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May be related to the lack of a true west-based NAO and/or lack of a persistent STJ. We've had a lot of -EPO, which seems to support Miller Bish type activity around here. I remember growing up, I would watch The Weather Channel and see snow in TX and see that move across the deep south and into the SE. Now, you see snow in TX and it either evaporates as it moves east (i.e. gets crushed) or it moves from TX up through AR into IL and MI (i.e. Lakes Cutter) or it moves just up the west side of the Apps before reforming along the coast (i.e. Miller B).
 
A west-based -NAO with an active STJ with the coldest air on our side of the globe. What are weather patterns you'll never see again?, for $1000, Alex.
 
Related to the above discussion, here are the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950 or about one every 3 winters on average:


-1/19/1955

- 12/11/1958

- 3/2-3/1960

- 3/9/1960

- 2/26/1963

- 1/25-7/1966

- 2/9/1967

- 3/1/1969

- 1/7-8/1973

- 2/18-9/1979

- 3/1-2/1980

- 1/13-14/1982

- 3/24/1983

- 2/6/1984

- 1/7-8/1988

- 2/17-8/1989

- 1/24-5/2000

- 1/2-3/2002

- 2/26-7/2004

- 12/25-6/2010

- 2/24-6/2015

Really since 2000, they haven't been far off the 3/decade average. The 1990s were a shutout. The 1980s and 1960s were big overperformers with each having 6 vs the longterm average of only 3/decade. Perhaps the 1980s spoiled some folks into thinking that was normal.
 
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BHS1975 said:
And 95-96 where we had back to back smaller events and it stayed cold in between with a slab of ice on the ground for over a week.


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Wasn't the 1993-94 winter also very cold and snowy across much of the US ?
 
GaWx said:
Related to the above discussion, here are the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950 or about one every 3 winters on average:


-1/19/1955

- 12/11/1958

- 3/2-3/1960

- 3/9/1960

- 2/26/1963

- 1/25-7/1966

- 2/9/1967

- 3/1/1969

- 1/7-8/1973

- 2/18-9/1979

- 3/1-2/1980

- 1/13-14/1982

- 3/24/1983

- 2/6/1984

- 1/7-8/1988

- 2/17-8/1989

- 1/24-5/2000

- 1/2-3/2002

- 2/26-7/2004

- 12/25-6/2010

- 2/24-6/2015

Really since 2000, they haven't been far off the 3/decade average. The 1990s were a shutout. The 1980s and 1960s were big overperformers with each having 6 vs the longterm average of only 3/decade. Perhaps the 1980s spoiled some folks into thinking that was normal.
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Looks like RAH is due
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks like RAH is due
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Not that due though. They've had 5 since 2000 and one 3 years ago. Not far off at all vs average of just under one every 3 years frequency since 1950.

If we were in the late 1990s, then I'd say bigtime overdue.
 
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The EPS has ridiculous spread for month's end, lots of variation in the placement of the ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern North America
 
^ Thanks. I was wondering if I Rip Van Winkle'ed through the 2015 one!
 
1300m said:
RDU has not had a 6"+ single storm snowfall since 12/26/2010. That 2015 period you reference was from two entirely different systems. And the second one started off as rain and ended as sleet, again RDU's numbers can be quite deceiving with all the sleet.

accum.20150224.png


accum.20150226.png
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My bad on treating the two as one storm. So, the 2nd one produced 5.1" of SN/IP, which means they just missed a 6" SN/IP in 2/2015. So, in that regard, RAH is overdue for a 6"+ storm.

2015-02-24 30 19 24.5 -21.8 40 0 0.09 1.4 T
2015-02-25 46 18 32.0 -14.5 33 0 0.36 1.9 1
2015-02-26 35 28 31.5 -15.3 33 0 0.72 3.2 4

This means they've had 20 6"+ storms since 1950 rather than 21 assuming those 20 were from just one storm or one every 3.4 years. They did just fine 2000-2010.

I count all SN and IP toward the 6" as do the records since 1950. Many storms have had a mix of SN and IP. Why not count it? It all goes toward accumulation and the sleet is a much hardier accumulation per inch. 1" of sleet is on average like ~2.5" of SN in water content/staying power.

I still think some folks were spoiled by the heavy overproducing of the 1980s,
 
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Maaaaaaaaaaybeee it's possible this could yield work into something over the next 6 days. Of course, the standard caveats of needing a sharp PNA and trough axis farther west apply:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png
 
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