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Pattern Jarring January

olhausen said:
I’m not seeing this warm period that some are saying is coming. Other then a few days this week I see nothing but cold temps on the models. In fact the euro is even colder then the GFS in the long range. I’m no where near as weather smart as most on this board so maybe someone with more knowledge then me can explain why they think we are flipping to warm for more then a few days anytime soon.
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There can't be a torch coming. Don't see it on any models
 
Tarheel1 said:
There can't be a torch coming. Don't see it on any models
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Not a forecast, but merely an observation ... CPC is looking warm after mid-month; but that does not itself mean it gets warm, or if it does that it stays warm. But ...
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... and warm is not what your Curmudgeon prefers, at all ...
 
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olhausen said:
I’m not seeing this warm period that some are saying is coming. Other then a few days this week I see nothing but cold temps on the models. In fact the euro is even colder then the GFS in the long range. I’m no where near as weather smart as most on this board so maybe someone with more knowledge then me can explain why they think we are flipping to warm for more then a few days anytime soon.

Edit: Maybe some of the cold would be based on how much if any snowpack is laid down in the south?
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Because "we're in a Niña" that's the only logic I've heard for the inevitable torch
 
People making forecasts that aren't cold, even if they have good basis, aren't treated too well here or at pretty much any wx forum as ridiculous as that sounds. Certain folks obviously just want to hear cold, cold, cold and no mention of warm dominated, warming trend, etc. Disappointing but not surprising and it is a huge turnoff. This place is no different in that regard.
 
GaWx said:
People making forecasts that aren't cold aren't treated too well here or at pretty much any wx forum as ridiculous as that sounds. Certain folks obviously just want to hear cold, cold, cold and no mention of warm dominated, warming trend, etc. Disappointing but not surprising and it is a huge turnoff. This place is no different in that regard.
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You mean the warm that keeps not happening and getting pushed back? Some on here seem like it offends them if cold keeps showing up and their warm bias doesn't come true.
 
Stormlover said:
You mean the warm that keeps not happening and getting pushed back? Ridiculous comment
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Larry was all over the deep SE snow long before any model; likewise with our recent cold bout; he posts what he sees and his track record is pretty damn good; not perfect, but neither is anyone else's; Larry also substantiates what he sees with data and not with off-the-cuff comments.
Just sayin' ... :eek:
 
GaWx said:
People making forecasts that aren't cold, even if they have good basis, aren't treated too well here or at pretty much any wx forum as ridiculous as that sounds. Certain folks obviously just want to hear cold, cold, cold and no mention of warm dominated, warming trend, etc. Disappointing but not surprising and it is a huge turnoff. This place is no different in that regard.
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I agree and I am just as guilty as some that let my cold bias get in the way of actually reading and learning from those that present a warm argument . Truth is we are gonna have warming periods . People that so other wise are just silly. I think a cold snowy bias far outweighs a warm bias on weather forums . Then when those with knowledge come and explain why the think it's gonna warm they get attacked .

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Stormlover said:
You mean the warm that keeps not happening and getting pushed back? Some on here seem like it offends them if cold keeps showing up and their warm bias doesn't come true.
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I agree in a sense that people keep harping on the "Nina" train and BN temps keep showing up in the LR. This winter has defied people's LR forecasts and there is probably a little bitterness that goes along with that. IMO the stereotypical Nina forecast can be thrown out the window at this point
 
GaWx said:
People making forecasts that aren't cold, even if they have good basis, aren't treated too well here or at pretty much any wx forum as ridiculous as that sounds. Certain folks obviously just want to hear cold, cold, cold and no mention of warm dominated, warming trend, etc. Disappointing but not surprising and it is a huge turnoff. This place is no different in that regard.
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I still believe more warm than cold to end winter

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I agree in a sense that people keep harping on the "Nina" train and BN temps keep showing up in the LR. This winter has defied people's LR forecasts and there is probably a little bitterness that goes along with that. IMO the stereotypical Nina forecast can be thrown out the window at this point
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Yeah, things haven't been typical for a La Niña this year. Last year wasn't a typical Niña because of I what sounded like Indonesian convection. Maybe we have some little thing such as that keeping this winter from torching like last winter did. Either that or we are getting last winter's expected patterns this winter and this winter's patterns last year lol. As for the whole bias with warmth, I try my best to stay neutral and look at what's going on, but I prefer cold weather over warm. Right now, it's looking like as I mentioned, a transient cold to warm to cold pattern. Seems to be supported by the EPS through day 15 with a roller coaster of temps. We're about to fall again, have a shot at a storm or two, then rise again by late month and likely fall again at the end.
 
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