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Pattern January thread part deux

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That disturbance dropping down into the Dakotas is the one we'll have to watch out for.

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The tables are turning but never a good thing to wash everything out before the cold gets here. I bet it turns dry cold more so than winter storm after winter storm. Still think we will score 1 however, esp NC. More to come, mic crackling, out, pce sawgrass.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I have nothing new to comment about with the two waves involved with the first system after the cutter, the GOM shortwave and shortwave from north of there continue to dance but don't phase, it's pretty clear if it doesn't phase it'll be all rain in the SE outside of the mountains. A phase is the only hope with that one, but it's risky.

That might just end up being the system to set up other systems, but if that one doesn't work, we're probably waiting until the second week of February.

Edit: I actually think there's a late phase, but a late phase isn't going to work. If there wasn't a late phase, it was the closest we've gotten to seeing one.
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It just wants time to work out the details, lol.  I think there will be a low, and with luck after the cold gets in.  Just need a high now to move down in behind the cutter.  That's next on my Goofy wish list ::)  Deepen the trough, delay the low coming out.   Set up a wsw moisture flow, raise the pressure on low, set up the perfect track.  Another high to help set up a ne surface  flow into the event and keep the low south. Blocking, and  split streams.  And a cross polar flow after to cement it all down :) Easy squeezy. T
 
Another interesting GFS run to say the least. I'm seeing a super clipper diving in again from Canada...
 
I don't always pay close attention but I've honestly never seen the look I've seen on now a handful of GFS runs. From Tuesday Jan. 31 at 00z, you see a super clipper dive in from Canada. That's interesting to see, even if it's not going to give me anything other than sunny skies. If that look were to pan out it's a good winter storm for the upper south.
 
This pattern favors clippers more than storms coming up from the gulf stream. Your best bet with this pattern is a phase, which I've been talking about or for a storm to happen right with the pattern breaking (the 18z actually suggested this).
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Not impressed by the GFS.

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what's not to like about full pattern flip that holds potential . All we can ask for at this point

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That track of that clipper that comes down at 276 on the GFS is wrong IMO. Also, I think it is too strong, it should be more of a weak disturbance and not a fully develop clipper system. The disturbance should spin up a low pressure in the southern stream as it taps energy from the Gulf like what the 12z Euro EPS is showed from today. At hr 300 on the 0z GFS you can see that a transfer occurs from the clipper to a newly formed low off of the mid Atlantic coast. The GFS is all over the place IMO.

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much better ridge placement and trough axis on the 00z gefs vs the gfs op

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Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Not impressed by the GFS.

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what's not to like about full pattern flip that holds potential . All we can ask for at this point

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It's not the pattern, it's the way the GFS is handling the systems. It's all over the place on the GFS.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Not impressed by the GFS.

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what's not to like about full pattern flip that holds potential . All we can ask for at this point

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It's not the pattern, it's the way the GFS is handling the systems. It's all over the place on the GFS.

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I mean it's the gfs , anything post day 3 is going to be wrong . That's why it's fun to watch each gfs cycle cause they are all different

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Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Storm5 said:
what's not to like about full pattern flip that holds potential . All we can ask for at this point

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It's not the pattern, it's the way the GFS is handling the systems. It's all over the place on the GFS.

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I mean it's the gfs , anything post day 3 is going to be wrong . That's why it's fun to watch each gfs cycle cause they are all different

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I agree, past 192 on the GFS is fun to look at. The best thing to look for beyond 192 is pattern changes, temp anomalies, 500 heights...not so good for predicting storms beyond 192. Sometimes the GFS can perform well with some systems.



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From my tired, glassy, silly eyes. 00z GEFS showing multiple over-running possibilities past hour 200 for the majority of the Southeast. Not gonna miss them all.
 
From my sleepy eyes, i see a vague hint of a CAD winter storm setup for 2/3-4 per the 0Z GEFS. Of course, this is for entertainment only. We're talking 2 weeks from now. but fwiw,t he trough axis is then favorable per the 0Z GEFS mean. Then again, maybe the GEFS si playing tricks on our eyes.
 
I absolutely love the GFS run for the past few days or week showing tons of potential. Nice cold air to hang around and potential for mega clippers and maybe storms.
 
If 06z goofus is right with that L placement at hr 288 a lot of people will be happy come Feb 1st....LOL! Again it's at hr 288 so take w/a grain of salt.


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whatalife said:
If 06z goofus is right with that L placement at hr 288 a lot of people will be happy come Feb 1st....LOL! Again it's at hr 288 so take w/a grain of salt.


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 The 6Z GFS is about as holy wow a run as any I've seen recently! Forget the storm. Look at how cold it gets. Of course, all of it is taken with a huge grain, especially with this being way colder than the EPS rund but keep hope alive!
 
Aside from pattern change, I don't accept ANY wintery musings by the GFS. They're lies, all lies! #FoolMeTwice


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I should add that the 0Z para-GFS also had its own holy wow moment with it quite cold iin the SE US n week #2.
 
GaWx said:
whatalife said:
If 06z goofus is right with that L placement at hr 288 a lot of people will be happy come Feb 1st....LOL! Again it's at hr 288 so take w/a grain of salt.


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 The 6Z GFS is about as holy wow a run as any I've seen recently! Forget the storm. Look at how cold it gets. Of course, all of it is taken with a huge grain, especially with this being way colder than the EPS rund but keep hope alive!
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Yes. I would agree. 06z GEFS also agrees to the cold and stormy pattern. So we'll see what happens moving forward.


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Storm5 said:
omgd the 06z GEFS

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GaWx said:
I should add that the 0Z para-GFS also had its own holy wow moment with it quite cold iin the SE US n week #2.
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Why did you make me look at the para-GFS?  haha

I for one like the clipper train, I usually have a couple to track every winter (false hope most of the time) but haven't had the first clipper this year.....  won't feel like Winter without one
 
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting. 10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting.  10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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:cool:
 
Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting. 10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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I agree, the GFS indeed have the idea of the event all along. The model started to handle the event very well on the day of the event. It did terrible with the snowfall amounts on the day of the event. CMC, NAM and Euro was more accurate than GFS with the p-type and snowfall amounts. What I'm saying is, the GFS did terrible with p-type and snowfall amounts but it did good with the overall idea.

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Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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Click to expand...
I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting.  10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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Completely agree!  And in some locales it only missed by 50 miles or so.... if we're honest a computer model digesting all the data through all layers of the atmosphere from all over the world days in advance forecasting some type of system within a couple hundred miles should be pretty freaking fantastic.  I think somewhere along the way society as a whole thinks, for some reason or another, that a computer is perfect...... far from it
 
Most computers just do one thing. Crunch numbers. In that respect they are perfect.

It's what humans introduce to crunch that's the problem. Until humans figure out how to control the weather, model algorithms will always be off.
 
Computer models are not perfect in the long run, but with me, I like to correct the model from my thinking from experience of what I've seen in reality of similar outcomes. I'm sure some of the members here have seen me saying, for an example, "that's wrong, it needs to go further north". I say things like that cause that's how I interpret the model into reality of what I think from experience. I'm an amateur, I do winter weather forecasting professionally. I just don't look for entertainment and snow maps.

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Northern stream continues to look very active on this GFS run. While a split flow does try to develop, the pattern most likely favors clippers more than something firing in the southern stream until there's some moderation, IMO.
 
Keep an eye on the energy coming down from Canada into the Rockies at 222-234

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