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Pattern January thread part deux

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Man at gfs, so much potential and great run I think.LR looking better also
 
what an exciting run will be interesting. will be interesting to see if the 174-196 wave has legs. so far the ensembles want no part of it .

damn that was a fun run

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Wow at 336...not buying that though, too far out

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I've never seen a model try to make a clipper into a mini bomb until the recent few days. That's interesting to see...

It never really warms up on this GFS run. It tries to show a winter weather threat very late in the run (aka: for entertainment purposes only time), but it suddenly dries out with a snap of the fingers and just has snow/sleet in Florida.
 
At this point, I'm liking the cold pattern coming. Not worried about specific storm, as long as we have nice push of cold and reinforcements the storm will come.
 
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Thinking the potential soon is much higher than even the last event for many. Multiple waves and near misses. One big one should pop up for someone in the SE.
 
SD said:
accu35 said:
Testing
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Mic check one two one two
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Sound of crashing , clanging , drum kit collapsing , incoming! :(
 
GaWx said:
"Storm5 said:
GeorgiaGirl said:
If you're looking at just the gulf low as the wintry threat, you're making a mistake. When it's coming in strong without a phase it's leading to an all rain event. If you think a phase will not help...This may not be the one unless it's delayed and delays rarely happen.

The good thing is we're still definitely getting rid of the western ridge.
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no one is looking at a gulf low . there are ZERO signs of a gulf low unless we get a  phase but there are no signs of that  

and this pattern won't produce a strong gulf low without a phase . a phase is a must for those looking for a strong gulf low

I for one don't like strong gulf lows. too many issues .
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 I agree. All anyone has to do to be convinced is to look back at 100+ years of major SE winter storms. The "Storm of the Century" of 3/1993 was an extreme exception and by far (I mean by 20 mb!!) the strongest Gulf low going back to at least 1879 that produced a widespread major winter storm that included at least Atlanta. It wasn't called "Storm of the Century" for no good reason. Also, Atlanta only got snow from its backside. It was easily too warm out in front of it for snow there.

 There have been only two other major Atlanta SN/IP producing lows lows below 1000 mb while in the Gulf on record since 1879 and they were barely below in the high 990's.

 The average Gulf low was only down to 1008 mb while down there. Several were as high as 1020 mb! Some of the most prolific snow and IP producers at ATL were only down into the 1017-18 mb range including the great 4" sleetstorms (and huge Carolina snow producers) of 1/1988 and 2/1979 as well as the great blizzard of 2/1899!
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Thanks for the honorable mention of the huge Carolina snowstorms. I remember the 1/1988 and the 2/1979 ones very well. We could only hope to ever have another one to rival either of those storms. And both very cold storms as well, mid to upper teens at mid afternoon during both of those storms.......you don't see that much in the South.
 
Not to go all Yoko Ono, and split up the band, but on the other thread, it was said the weeklies are not so great!? The cold is transient, 2-3 days then warm up, then another 2-3 day cold shot! Nothing sustained, but I guess we already knew this based on the winter so far, and I know we can and already have. I was just expecting a magical Feb, with all the hype from the likes of JB and others and the strat warming!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not to go all Yoko Ono, and split up the band, but on the other thread, it was said the weeklies are not so great!? The cold is transient, 2-3 days then warm up, then another 2-3 day cold shot! Nothing sustained, but I guess we already knew this based on the winter so far, and I know we can and already have. I was just expecting a magical Feb, with all the hype from the likes of JB and others and the strat warming!?
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Yep! Magical winters are a thing of the past. Too many people & too much asphalt. J/K :) Does contribute some i suppose though.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not to go all Yoko Ono, and split up the band, but on the other thread, it was said the weeklies are not so great!? The cold is transient, 2-3 days then warm up, then another 2-3 day cold shot! Nothing sustained, but I guess we already knew this based on the winter so far, and I know we can and already have. I was just expecting a magical Feb, with all the hype from the likes of JB and others and the strat warming!?
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Mack or Yoko,
 Yes, the weeklies don't look so hot (or cold lol), but:
1) How often is the cold in the SE not to some degree or another transient? Actually, transient cold is may be best for big storm chances.
2) How reliable are forecasts that go past week number 2? Even week #2 is not always so reliable.
 
Just looked....they aren't that bad....I'd be ok with what they have through Feb

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Show of hands. Who would mind a better forum software? We would be able to bring our threads and posts over, and user account should come too. These post showing bugs would likely go away also.
 
JB is so predictable. I knew he'd write a post and use the 12z Euro control for his snow totals. Talk about bathtub slosh...LOL!


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1) 18 GEFS was quite a cold run for the SE before letting up toward the more unreliable end of the run.

2) Folks need to keep in mind that the Euro weeklies are nothing more than extensions out to week 6 of the 0Z EPS. Well, today's 0Z EPS was milder late in week 2 than the GEFS, especially the 18Z GEFS. Also, if anyone thinks that 3-6 weeks into the future is really all that forecastable, I have a bridge to sell you.

3) As Shane said, they aren't horrible at all. They just aren't colder than normal past week 2. They're near normal/undecided. Also, I just noticed that they once again have a solid -AO/-NAO as well as western North America ridging for weeks 4-6. If those things materialize, I'd bet heavily on colder than normal.
 
I wouldn't use the Euro weeklies for the primary model. The weeklies are good to determine of what we could start seeing on the main models, GFS, Euro and CMC.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I wouldn't use the Euro weeklies for the primary model. The weeklies are good to determine of what we could start seeing  on the main models, GFS, Euro and CMC.

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 I don't.

 Another thing to note is that the MJO will be going back into the circle, which is more favorable for cold chances than being outside of it (per analysis of actual Atlanta winter temperatures since 1975) by 1/26 per the EPS and GEFS. Hopefully it then winds counterclockwise just inside the circle on the left side after that.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
I wouldn't use the Euro weeklies for the primary model. The weeklies are good to determine of what we could start seeing  on the main models, GFS, Euro and CMC.

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 I don't though I do like to look at them for trends in the AO and NAO among other things.

 Another thing to note is that the MJO will be going back into the circle, which is more favorable for cold chances than being outside of it (per analysis of actual Atlanta winter temperatures since 1975) by 1/26 per the EPS and GEFS. Hopefully it then winds counterclockwise just inside the circle on the left side after that.
 
Shawn said:
Show of hands.  Who would mind a better forum software?  We would be able to bring our threads and posts over, and user account should come too.  These post showing bugs would likely go away also.
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Hands up (both of them), Shawn!
 
Shawn said:
Show of hands.  Who would mind a better forum software?  We would be able to bring our threads and posts over, and user account should come too.  These post showing bugs would likely go away also.
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Shawn said:
Show of hands.  Who would mind a better forum software?  We would be able to bring our threads and posts over, and user account should come too.  These post showing bugs would likely go away also.
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Yea verily.
 
Shawn said:
Show of hands.  Who would mind a better forum software?  We would be able to bring our threads and posts over, and user account should come too.  These post showing bugs would likely go away also.
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Count me in!
 
SD said:
Shawn said:
Show of hands.  Who would mind a better forum software?  We would be able to bring our threads and posts over, and user account should come too.  These post showing bugs would likely go away also.
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Sweet
 
Just looking over the 12z Euro and 18z GFS. I think our chance for a broad winter event will be between 29th and Feb. 2nd. The images is comparison between the two.



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I have nothing new to comment about with the two waves involved with the first system after the cutter, the GOM shortwave and shortwave from north of there continue to dance but don't phase, it's pretty clear if it doesn't phase it'll be all rain in the SE outside of the mountains. A phase is the only hope with that one, but it's risky.

That might just end up being the system to set up other systems, but if that one doesn't work, we're probably waiting until the second week of February.

Edit: I actually think there's a late phase, but a late phase isn't going to work. If there wasn't a late phase, it was the closest we've gotten to seeing one.
 
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