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Pattern January thread part deux

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Arcc said:
The Euro says prepare for the +PNA/-EPO of doom.
Click to expand...
I love where we are headed with the massive pna/epo combo. We are not gonna get a ridge to setup in a perfect spot and stay there for a few weeks. it's gonna move. the thing I really like is the epo trying to bridge with the Scandinavian ridge. great signs moving forward regardless if we have a dry NW flow for a while
23a5535ae7ef0e8ab4378dfb2eed8475.jpg


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Storm5 said:
Arcc said:
The Euro says prepare for the +PNA/-EPO of doom.
Click to expand...
I love where we are headed with the massive pna/epo combo. We are not gonna get a ridge to setup in a perfect spot and stay there for a few weeks. it's gonna move. the thing I really like is the epo trying to bridge with the Scandinavian ridge. great signs moving forward regardless if we have a dry NW flow for a while
23a5535ae7ef0e8ab4378dfb2eed8475.jpg


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Click to expand...


18b6d6423ae815e58393609d2bdaabae.jpg

HAHA!



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Storm5 said:
Arcc said:
The Euro says prepare for the +PNA/-EPO of doom.
Click to expand...
I love where we are headed with the massive pna/epo combo. We are not gonna get a ridge to setup in a perfect spot and stay there for a few weeks. it's gonna move. the thing I really like is the epo trying to bridge with the Scandinavian ridge. great signs moving forward regardless if we have a dry NW flow for a while
23a5535ae7ef0e8ab4378dfb2eed8475.jpg


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Click to expand...


Yeah, who's to say that even if it is mainly dry during this cold period (a common occurrence in the SE anyway) that some or even much of the SE doesn't get a big wintry precip  threat later in Feb.? For one thing, the 2nd week in Feb. has seen more snow than the average for the weeks in DJF. I don't know why then but it has. Also, the 3rd week in Feb. has had a good number of them.
 
GaWx said:
Storm5 said:
Arcc said:
The Euro says prepare for the +PNA/-EPO of doom.
Click to expand...
I love where we are headed with the massive pna/epo combo. We are not gonna get a ridge to setup in a perfect spot and stay there for a few weeks. it's gonna move. the thing I really like is the epo trying to bridge with the Scandinavian ridge. great signs moving forward regardless if we have a dry NW flow for a while
23a5535ae7ef0e8ab4378dfb2eed8475.jpg


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Click to expand...


Yeah, who's to say that even if it is mainly dry during this cold period (a common occurrence in the SE anyway) that some or even much of the SE doesn't get a big wintry precip  threat later in Feb.? For one thing, the 2nd week in Feb. has seen more snow than the average for the weeks in DJF. I don't know why then but it has. Also, the 3rd week in Feb. has had a good number of them.
Click to expand...
to your point , there is often a big storm on the back side of a pattern change as the pattern lifts out. Lots to be excited about . For me cold weather means more fire time with the wife. Actual wood burning fire not marital fire lol

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Storm5 said:
GaWx said:
Storm5 said:
I love where we are headed with the massive pna/epo combo. We are not gonna get a ridge to setup in a perfect spot and stay there for a few weeks. it's gonna move. the thing I really like is the epo trying to bridge with the Scandinavian ridge. great signs moving forward regardless if we have a dry NW flow for a while
23a5535ae7ef0e8ab4378dfb2eed8475.jpg


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Click to expand...


Yeah, who's to say that even if it is mainly dry during this cold period (a common occurrence in the SE anyway) that some or even much of the SE doesn't get a big wintry precip  threat later in Feb.? For one thing, the 2nd week in Feb. has seen more snow than the average for the weeks in DJF. I don't know why then but it has. Also, the 3rd week in Feb. has had a good number of them.
Click to expand...
to your point , there is often a big storm on the back side of a pattern change as the pattern lifts out. Lots to be excited about . For me cold weather means more fire time with the wife. Actual  wood burning fire not marital fire lol

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Click to expand...

Y2NwDm7ITMmek.gif
 
Further to the above, consider these major SN/IP dates at ATL (not ZR):

1/22, 1/23, 1/23, 1/26, 1/28, 1/29-30


And these major SN/IP dates at ATL:

2/10, 2/11-2, 2/11-2, 2/12, 2/12-3, 2./12-5, 2/14-5, 2/15, 2/15-6, 2/17-8

Why have there been zero major SN/IPs in ATL for the ten days 1/31-2/9 (since at least 1879) but there have been 6 of then for the prior ten days and 10 of them the following ten days? Part of the answer may be that there were major ZR's instead but there actually were only three major ZR's during the first week of Feb. So, when combining ZR with the SN/IP, Atlanta had this breakdown:

1/21, 1/22, 1/22-3, 1/23, 1/23, 1/23, 1/23, 1/26, 1/28, 1/28-9, 1/28-30, 1/29-30, 1/30-1 (13 in total)

And then only these in early Feb.: 2/4-6, 2/6-7, 2/7-8 (only 3 in total and 2 of the 3 were in one year)

And then it picks up bigtime again:

2/9-11, 2/10, 2/11-2, 2/11-2, 2/12, 2/12, 2/12-3, 2./12-5, 2/14-5, 2/15, 2/15-6, 2/17-8 (12 in total)
Is there a scientific explanation for why early Feb. has been quieter there than the surrounding periods or is it just a statistical fluke? I think it is more than a statistical fluke.
 
12z Euro total QPF...looks good! This will put a dent in that drought.
bf87e2b6f277add04c8cdf5d456595d8.jpg


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How's the EPS?
 
Storm5 said:
GaWx said:
Storm5 said:
I love where we are headed with the massive pna/epo combo. We are not gonna get a ridge to setup in a perfect spot and stay there for a few weeks. it's gonna move. the thing I really like is the epo trying to bridge with the Scandinavian ridge. great signs moving forward regardless if we have a dry NW flow for a while
23a5535ae7ef0e8ab4378dfb2eed8475.jpg


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Click to expand...


Yeah, who's to say that even if it is mainly dry during this cold period (a common occurrence in the SE anyway) that some or even much of the SE doesn't get a big wintry precip  threat later in Feb.? For one thing, the 2nd week in Feb. has seen more snow than the average for the weeks in DJF. I don't know why then but it has. Also, the 3rd week in Feb. has had a good number of them.
Click to expand...
to your point , there is often a big storm on the back side of a pattern change as the pattern lifts out. Lots to be excited about . For me cold weather means more fire time with the wife. Actual wood burning fire not marital fire lol

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Click to expand...


There you go bringing your poor wife into this again.


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Storm5 said:
Haha the euro control would shut this site down . epic bomb

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Click to expand...


Suck for mine and Shawn's houses but yes it would shut this site down...LOL!


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Storm5 said:
Haha the euro control would shut this site down . epic bomb

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Better not post it lol...not unless you want to test out the new sever power lol

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whatalife said:
Storm5 said:
Haha the euro control would shut this site down . epic bomb

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Click to expand...


Suck for mine and Shawn's houses but yes it would shut this site down...LOL!


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don't forget Shane and metwannabe. add them to the brown grass list lol

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Storm5 said:
whatalife said:
Storm5 said:
Haha the euro control would shut this site down . epic bomb

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Click to expand...


Suck for mine and Shawn's houses but yes it would shut this site down...LOL!


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Click to expand...
don't forget Shane and metwannabe. add them to the brown grass list lol

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Click to expand...


True...


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18z GFS is rolling out...lets see what kind of clowns it's going to have this time

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Arcc said:
Five days before the ridge starts going up. For the first time in a while it looks to verify.
Click to expand...
Yeah , the only issue I have is it does not look like it's gonna have staying power . maybe a week or so . of course it will probably last longer as models like to rush things. but the flip side to that is the epo is going to be huuuuuuuuge and there are signs it bridges with the Scandinavian ridge down the road. so regardless, the cold will be around for a while. sure we will have moderating periods but the colder pattern looks like it's gonna lock in for a while

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If you're looking at just the shortwave in the gulf as the wintry threat, you're making a mistake. When it's coming in strong without a phase it's leading to an all rain event. If you think a phase will not help...This may not be the one unless it's delayed and delays rarely happen.

The good thing is we're still definitely getting rid of the western ridge.
 
At 500 the two shortwaves are dancing together again to me but I don't think we have a phase, just more dancing.

Edit: It does try again but this won't be the run that shows a phase I bet.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If you're looking at just the gulf low as the wintry threat, you're making a mistake. When it's coming in strong without a phase it's leading to an all rain event. If you think a phase will not help...This may not be the one unless it's delayed and delays rarely happen.

The good thing is we're still definitely getting rid of the western ridge.
Click to expand...
no one is looking at a gulf low . there are ZERO signs of a gulf low unless we get a phase but there are no signs of that

and this pattern won't produce a strong gulf low without a phase . a phase is a must for those looking for a strong gulf low

I for one don't like strong gulf lows. too many issues .
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I bet there will be a low coming up from the Gulf or the southeast coast with a phase off the Mid-Atlantic from the looks of this 18z GFS

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Storm5 said:
GeorgiaGirl said:
If you're looking at just the gulf low as the wintry threat, you're making a mistake. When it's coming in strong without a phase it's leading to an all rain event. If you think a phase will not help...This may not be the one unless it's delayed and delays rarely happen.

The good thing is we're still definitely getting rid of the western ridge.
Click to expand...
no one is looking at a gulf low . there are ZERO signs of a gulf low unless we get a  phase but there are no signs of that  

and this pattern won't produce a strong gulf low without a phase . a phase is a must for those looking for a strong gulf low

I for one don't like strong gulf lows. too many issues .
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Click to expand...

I corrected myself.
 
I take that back, this got even closer to phasing in time. It's another juuuuuussssssttttt miss. But yes, with the energy in the west actually kicking, this has to at least phase some a little bit earlier or it's not going to cut it. Since the western energy actually kicks it keeps it warmer until the end.
 
"Storm5 said:
GeorgiaGirl said:
If you're looking at just the gulf low as the wintry threat, you're making a mistake. When it's coming in strong without a phase it's leading to an all rain event. If you think a phase will not help...This may not be the one unless it's delayed and delays rarely happen.

The good thing is we're still definitely getting rid of the western ridge.
Click to expand...
no one is looking at a gulf low . there are ZERO signs of a gulf low unless we get a  phase but there are no signs of that  

and this pattern won't produce a strong gulf low without a phase . a phase is a must for those looking for a strong gulf low

I for one don't like strong gulf lows. too many issues .
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Click to expand...

 I agree. All anyone has to do to be convinced is to look back at 100+ years of major SE winter storms. The "Storm of the Century" of 3/1993 was an extreme exception and by far (I mean by 20 mb!!) the strongest Gulf low going back to at least 1879 that produced a widespread major winter storm that included at least Atlanta. It wasn't called "Storm of the Century" for no good reason. Also, Atlanta only got snow from its backside. It was easily too warm out in front of it for snow there.

 There have been only two other major Atlanta SN/IP producing lows lows below 1000 mb while in the Gulf on record since 1879 and they were barely below in the high 990's.

 The average Gulf low was only down to 1008 mb while down there. Several were as high as 1020 mb! Some of the most prolific snow and IP producers at ATL were only down into the 1017-18 mb range including the great 4" sleetstorms (and huge Carolina snow producers) of 1/1988 and 2/1979 as well as the great blizzard of 2/1899!
 
Storm5 said:
Arcc said:
Uh oh energy coming south from the Dekotas.
Click to expand...
hahah Bombs away unless the SW gets stuck
94ba2cbd999c200a88e01358efe908e6.jpg


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It shouldn't. But the NE is a meat grinder and the trough axis is pretty far East. If it misses a phase it's a dud

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