I have nothing to add other than the overnight runs were fantastic.
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Pattern January thread part deux
- Thread starter SD
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I will take what the 6z GFS is showing everyday and twice on Sunday.....
The amount of strat warming on the GFS and Euro is pretty crazy. I am not the biggest fan of the strat PV being displaced into Scandinavia but it seems that is the likely location for a displacement of this nature. I would expect we see a lot of PNA/EPO ridging over the next 30 days
Storm5
Member
12z gfs is still close to doing something fun between 168-186. Note the shortwave of Nebraska
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
12z GFS was a tick faster with the southern stream moisture than the 6z was.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'm not seeing posts again on my laptop but I was able to look on my iPad. Looks like a just missed phase to me.
Storm5
Member
jesus the 12z gfs was close to a phased bomb
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Just posting so hopefully I can see the post..... yep having issues again.
Storm5
Member
hahah fail the first time try again lol
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Storm5
Member
12z gfs goes mega -epo
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah taking a closer look, that really was a just missed phase. Those two waves dance together at the upper levels until the end. It ends up being two waves that are weak but it was very close to being something else.
That closed ridge over Seattle makes my day
Storm5
Member
Amazing gfs run .....Wow
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
And then the GFS has a couple of super clippers dive in later. Interesting to look at, at the very least.
whatalife
Moderator
Oh so close. Goofus in the next 24 hrs may spit something out. LOL!
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whatalife said:
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think it's going to start to get very interesting again a week from now. The good players are coming onto the field. Just have to see if they can get us a win.
That is cold. I've gotta get my woodstove in.
The 12Z GEFS is colder than recent GEFS runs for the SE US but is about as dry as can be..the classic NW flow of dry Arctic air. Any cold dry fans out there? 
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
The 12z GFS is interesting yes. Not buying that clipper after clippers cause clippers don't do that. A train of clippers, yeah definitely not buying that. I know from experience clippers don't come down like a train. Second of all, if there will be a phase with a clipper, it would most likely phase off the Mid-Atlantic coast...giveing the mid-Atlantic and the NE the good snows while it may give just snow showers and flurries in the south.
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I actually really like the orientation of the ridge on the GEFS around D10...gives a nice strong shortwave a chance to dig well SSW and pop a low along the east coast.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Don't understand the giddiness of a clipper train!?NorthGAWinterWx said:
GaWx said:The 12Z GEFS is colder than recent GEFS runs for the SE US but is about as dry as can be..the classic NW flow of dry Arctic air. Any cold dry fans out there?
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
Is there a direct correlation between the strat warming displacing the strat PV into Scandinavia and the trough axis location? I know SD said earlier he wasn't the biggest fan of that location...
Storm5
Member
Much rather have a cold dry flow vs 70s in late January. Yeah let's get the cold in and worry about the rest later. As you said where the ridge actually sets up will determine what type of pattern we get .The Eps has it a little further west and previous gefs runs had it west as well. one thing is for sure. winter is about to come roaring backGaWx said:The 12Z GEFS is colder than recent GEFS runs for the SE US but is about as dry as can be..the classic NW flow of dry Arctic air. Any cold dry fans out there?
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
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Tarheel1 said:
Some of us like clippers better than others (my location can sometimes fair well with late bloomers) and I don't think it's the clipper train that brings excitement as much as the pattern change from where we are now.
Storm5 said:Much rather have a cold dry flow vs 70s in late January. Yeah let's get the cold in and worry about the rest later. As you said where the ridge actually sets up will determine what type of pattern we get .The Eps has it a little further west and previous gefs runs had it west as well. one thing is for sure. winter is about to come roaring backGaWx said:The 12Z GEFS is colder than recent GEFS runs for the SE US but is about as dry as can be..the classic NW flow of dry Arctic air. Any cold dry fans out there?
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
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^^^This
Storm5
Member
I've seen plenty of seasons with clipper after clipper . if the ridge is too far east that's what we will get for a little while. clipper central.NorthGAWinterWx said:
speaking of phases , this is close to a phased storm over the SE. I don't think it will happen and it has no ensemble support BUT this is a nice look for a big phase
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metwannabe said:GaWx said:The 12Z GEFS is colder than recent GEFS runs for the SE US but is about as dry as can be..the classic NW flow of dry Arctic air. Any cold dry fans out there?
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
Is there a direct correlation between the strat warming displacing the strat PV into Scandinavia and the trough axis location? I know SD said earlier he wasn't the biggest fan of that location...
I have no idea about that possible correlation.
Tarheel1 said:
Because the door is wide open for something significant.
This?SD said:
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GaWx said:metwannabe said:GaWx said:The 12Z GEFS is colder than recent GEFS runs for the SE US but is about as dry as can be..the classic NW flow of dry Arctic air. Any cold dry fans out there?
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
Is there a direct correlation between the strat warming displacing the strat PV into Scandinavia and the trough axis location? I know SD said earlier he wasn't the biggest fan of that location...
I have no idea about that possible correlation.
I don't feel so bad then.... Lol
GaWx said:metwannabe said:GaWx said:The 12Z GEFS is colder than recent GEFS runs for the SE US but is about as dry as can be..the classic NW flow of dry Arctic air. Any cold dry fans out there?
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
Is there a direct correlation between the strat warming displacing the strat PV into Scandinavia and the trough axis location? I know SD said earlier he wasn't the biggest fan of that location...
I have no idea about that possible correlation.
I just worry that if the troposphere were to try to couple with the strat then we may lose the PV completely to Europe. On the flip side it would favor a huge PNA/EPO ridge so its not all bad
Storm5 said:Much rather have a cold dry flow vs 70s in late January. Yeah let's get the cold in and worry about the rest later. As you said where the ridge actually sets up will determine what type of pattern we get .The Eps has it a little further west and previous gefs runs had it west as well. one thing is for sure. winter is about to come roaring backGaWx said:The 12Z GEFS is colder than recent GEFS runs for the SE US but is about as dry as can be..the classic NW flow of dry Arctic air. Any cold dry fans out there?
We need the trough axis to be further west for most here to even have much of a chance at something significant wintry precipwise as the continental US is not usually a good source of much moisture though flurries/NW flow mountain events, etc. are common in these situations. Some NW facing mountain slopes could do very well. For most others, we could use Gulf moisture involvement.
Edit: PS: I can see this post of mine just fine while logged in as I'm able to edit it right away.
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I agree. I enjoy changes in winter, especially to colder in an otherwise mainly mild winter. I don't have a problem with a change from mild to cold and dry. It tends to be dry in the SE US when it gets cold anyway. So, that is pretty normal. That said, hopefully we can get the trough axis further west and add more precip.
metwannabe said:
Yep you could get a nice arctic jet wave to head from hudson bay down toward oklahoma and boom
SD said:
yeah that's a nice D10 ensemble look right there.... so much potential moving forward.
metwannabe said:This?SD said:
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The little westward kink in the 570dm line tells me that it is seeing shortwaves settle into the four corners. I agree with Shane, that is a great look.
The thing is with clippers it would reinforce the cold air which that would be good news. The bad news it would bring drier air which would mean suppression. My area don't do too good with clippers...maybe the NW facing slopes in the MNTS above 2500ft would do really good with a clipper.
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The key in most any big, widespread SE wintry precip. situation of the past 70 or so years (since 500 mb maps became available) has been that the 500 mb flow be at least a little south of west in one's area. This is based on going through numerous old maps one by one. Exceptions have been few. Of course, if one were in E NC, they could have south of west 500 mb flow and also take advantage of low level Atlantic moisture while someone, say, in GA or AL has drier W flow and are too far west to get help from the Atlantic. In this case, E NC could very well be east of the trough axis while the rest of the SE is not.
The Euro says prepare for the +PNA/-EPO of doom.
olhausen
Member
Storm5 said:I've seen plenty of seasons with clipper after clipper . if the ridge is too far east that's what we will get for a little while. clipper central.NorthGAWinterWx said:
speaking of phases , this is close to a phased storm over the SE. I don't think it will happen and it has no ensemble support BUT this is a nice look for a big phase
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Although clippers don't usually add up to more then an inch up here, They can give a couple of inches every once in a while. Two years ago bowling green KY got the big 10 inch snow and my area just missed out getting around 3 inches at best. But two days later we had a clipper roll in over night and it was super cold which was enough to give us about 2 and a half inches of snow. These recent model runs remind me of 4-5 years ago where we got snow for 2-3 days off and on which didn't add up to more then an inch and a half but was fun watching it fall.
Here's the before and after pictures from the 14-15 winter storm in February.
Snow from the main storm before the clipper.
Snow after the clipper two days later.
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