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Pattern January thread part deux

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SoutheastRidge said:
I'm hearing the end of the 18z GFS run was terrible.
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the gfs op has no support. the ensembles look much better

18z gfs
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18z gefs
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SD said:
Tarheel1 said:
Looks plenty cold for that late bloomer storm, but nobody wants a late bloomer, E NC special!!
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Metwannabe wins again. I like the overall setup...give me the tall western ridge and shortwave riding through it, the rest takes care of itself
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Met jacks again lock it up. Clack clack.


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GeorgiaGirl said:
The GFS still shows some form of phasing between that cutter and some moisture in the GOM. I'd be very interested if the disturbance in the GOM could be delayed until the cutter comes through with our flip to colder weather but alas...
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Yeah, I was looking at the possibilities after that cutter too.  I think we might get a low to form on the old front weakness at the end of the month, and if we got some timing with impulses in the trough...and if the trough is further west..and if the cold really gets in here, lol...... anyway,   I like the look much better than the present, bugs or not.  70's now just ain't natural ::)  Man, I hope this isn't the new natural... T
 
The 18z GFS wasn't that great overall but it doesn't really matter yet, it's so far out there that a significant change is very likely. It's hard to really look at what the GFS says is "in stone" in the long range, but you can look at the players on the table. The players are on the table for there to "maybe" be a possibility in 10-13 days, but it's not going to be ironed out this far out in advance.

My theory is going to be tested again, I've said with winter storms the GFS likes to show the possible look, then lose it for a while before bringing it again. I saw a good look that was close to the time period I'm talking about.
 
Disappearing posts. I'll try this again. Just agreeing with Ga Girl that something could form up on that weakness from the old front in the gulf, around the end of the month. It'd be nice, if it did, to join up with an impulse coming down the ridge...if the ridge will just move several paces to the left, lol. T
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The 18z GFS wasn't that great overall but it doesn't really matter yet, it's so far out there that a significant change is very likely. It's hard to really look at what the GFS says is "in stone" in the long range, but you can look at the players on the table. The players are on the table for there to "maybe" be a possibility in 10-13 days, but it's not going to be ironed out this far out in advance.

My theory is going to be tested again, I've said with winter storms the GFS likes to show the possible look, then lose it for a while before bringing it again. I saw a good look that was close to the time period I'm talking about.
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Your theory is more a fact and is a know issue with the gfs. It's been doing that for over ten years where it shows a storm and drops it only to bring it back.
 
That is a sick storm spinning around day 4-5 in the mid south. Just really sad there is no cold anywhere available for that thing to work with. On another note, so far with this torch, we have not really had a nice day out of it up here in CAD land. I had about 36 hours that I did not have a fire int he stove but the rest of the time it has been pretty gloomy and cool to cold...just not quite cold enough.

Cool new site! Thanks to those who started it!
 
The 18z GFS does put that low further south and east at 234 than 12z GFS. The Euro from today has it coming up from the southern stream...Miller A. The GFS will eventually have the low as a Miller A...or it could just to out to be a Miller B.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
The 18z GFS does put that low further south and east at 234 than 12z GFS. The Euro from today has it coming up from the southern stream...Miller A. The GFS will eventually have the low as a Miller A...or it could just to out to be a Miller B.

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The GFS has been having that disturbance as a super clipper that dives in from Canada, it's much stronger than clippers usually are. The clipper alone would be just a minor nuisance threat, but if the clipper ends up phasing with a disturbance in the gulf we may be talking about something here.
 
0z GFS is starting to look like the Euro...moisture breaking out over MS River and Gulf coast at 186 spreading ENE at 192.

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I thought the clipper would never appear but it's starting to appear again. The moisture that pops up on this run doesn't work because it's too warm but it's inching closer to being the solution that we want to see. We want that disturbance in the gulf to slow down and phase with that super clipper.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The 18z GFS does put that low further south and east at 234 than 12z GFS. The Euro from today has it coming up from the southern stream...Miller A. The GFS will eventually have the low as a Miller A...or it could just to out to be a Miller B.

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The GFS has been having that disturbance as a super clipper that dives in from Canada, it's much stronger than clippers usually are. The clipper alone would be just a minor nuisance threat, but if the clipper ends up phasing with a disturbance in the gulf we may be talking about something here.
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Several solutions could occur, we just don't know just yet.

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Yeah this one doesn't do it but it's ever so closer. The clipper is weaker since the disturbance in the west actually kicks and becomes a GOM disturbance but the thing is, it kicks too fast. If that can slow down a bit and let the cold air filter in first and the clipper does come into play in a possible phase we may see a bomb in a couple runs.
 
There's already some interaction between the clipper and the GOM disturbance and it's what makes the clipper weaker in this one because the disturbance kicked out too fast. If it is slower by just 12 hours...there you go.
 
The SER is hanging on as well but as the disturbance moves to the east to the Atlantic the SER moves east ahead of the disturbance. There is a frontal boundary there hanging down in the Gulf...another disturbance could lift northward...Miller A. Maybe this is what the Euro is hinting at. I also see another disturbance dropping down from Canada, snow breaking out over in CO, northeast NM and the panhandles at 276. We could be dealing with two systems that could bring potential winter weather. Still a long ways to go though.

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Fantasy land GFS is now showing snow in Mexico past 300 hours lol. It still shows this pattern moderating, but everything else says it's out to lunch.
 
that's a cold look(it's not letting me post the image)
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GeorgiaGirl said:
Fantasy land GFS is now showing snow in Mexico past 300 hours lol. It still shows this pattern moderating, but everything else says it's out to lunch.
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I agree, the GFS model is showing a HP in southern AL at 276 which is an odd position for a high. Normally they go to the coast of Virginia/NC or even further north. Also it's not even showing warm air on the western side of high which is odd. That high should be further north building in behind that cutter at 162. The trailing cold front from that cutter is a dry cold front now. It did show rain showers breaking out in the south. This run is definitely a garbage run.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
The SER is hanging on as well but as the disturbance moves to the east to the Atlantic the SER moves east ahead of the disturbance. There is a frontal boundary there hanging down in the Gulf...another disturbance could lift northward...Miller A. Maybe this is what the Euro is hinting at. I also see another disturbance dropping down from Canada, snow breaking out over in CO, northeast NM and the panhandles at 276. We could be dealing with two systems that could bring potential winter weather. Still a long ways to go though.

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We would like to see the shortwave that we see in Mexico at 156 kick out, but in this case it just kicked out too soon. It's fully out of Mexico by 180 and that's about one day too fast. It's already showing interaction between the clipper and the GOM shortwave, but since the GOM shortwave is now stronger than it since it kicked, instead of a phase, it stretches it to pieces and we don't see the super clipper look we've been seeing and see a rainstorm, then cold temps.

Hold the shortwave back a bit, have it phase with the clipper, and you have a significant winter storm for someone in the south.
 
This is from Kirk Mellish WSB radio meteorologist here out of Atlanta
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Well, Kirk Mellish is right that Feb 2015 was cold but there was only a trace of snow in ATL. Hard to believe the month was 7 below normal and no snow. So when he says Feb 2015 was very snowy, I guess he's talking about extreme north GA. Just goes to show that it can be bitterly cold but there's no guarantee for snow.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Well, Kirk Mellish is right that Feb 2015 was cold but there was only a trace of snow in ATL. Hard to believe the month was 7 below normal and no snow. So when he says Feb 2015 was very snowy, I guess he's talking about extreme north GA. Just goes to show that it can be bitterly cold but there's no guarantee for snow.
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There are more parts of Georgia than just "Atlanta". There was a significant winter storm in Georgia that month and it wasn't just the far north that got it as I consider anywhere above a line from Summerville-Jasper-Toccoa the far north and that was not the snow/rain line. The snow/rain line with that storm was Cave Spring (Just below Rome)-Cartersville-Canton-Gainesville. That's north, that's not far north.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Well, Kirk Mellish is right that Feb 2015 was cold but there was only a trace of snow in ATL. Hard to believe the month was 7 below normal and no snow. So when he says Feb 2015 was very snowy, I guess he's talking about extreme north GA. Just goes to show that it can be bitterly cold but there's no guarantee for snow.
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There are more parts of Georgia than just "Atlanta". There was a significant winter storm in Georgia that month and it wasn't just the far north that got it as I consider anywhere above a line from Summerville-Jasper-Toccoa the far north and that was not the snow/rain line. The snow/rain line with that storm was Cave Spring (Just below Rome)-Cartersville-Canton-Gainesville. That's north, that's not far north.
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besides the fact that that the feb 25th storm was one mean steep gradient, overall yeah that month was pretty cold and snowy, not to mention that ice storm in NE GA that was also mid feb

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Holy hell what a gfs run . loaded with potential.

00z GEFS is very exciting

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Storm5 said:
Holy hell what a gfs run . loaded with potential.

00z GEFS is very exciting

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Sweet
 
so i was at waffle house trying to look at the model runs with a vomiting friend on the sidewalk.
turns out i wasnt totally let down. it looks favorable for the end month, very early feb.

I will take this experience and let loose. i plan on buying a sled, along with a chainsaw.

if i don't need them for winter weather, i will use them to chop down wood and drag to my house.

something tells me that i will be needing them for winter weather though. i saw a possum outside causing quite a stir with his family. when i approached, i saw worms pouring out of their den like i've never seen before. it was so intense, that I had to take pictures. i am afraid the pictures are too scary to put up on here though. once i uploaded them to my pc, the shear horror in everyone's eyes around me decided that.

anyway.

Winter is approaching. Quickly. I hope you all enjoy your 90 degrees right now.
 
Shawn said:
so i was at waffle house trying to look at the model runs with a vomiting friend on the sidewalk.
turns out i wasnt totally let down. it looks favorable for the end month, very early feb.
I will take this experience and let loose. i plan on buying a sled, along with a chainsaw.
if i don't need them for winter weather, i will use them to chop down wood and drag to my house.
something tells me that i will be needing them for winter weather though. i saw a possum outside causing quite a stir with his family. when i approached, i saw worms pouring out of their den like i've never seen before. it was so intense, that I had to take pictures. i am afraid the pictures are too scary to put up on here though. once i uploaded them to my pc, the shear horror in everyone's eyes around me decided that.
anyway.
Winter is approaching. Quickly. I hope you all enjoy your 90 degrees right now.
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Welcome back Corey!! :)
Last nights Euro was ok
 
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