Cary_Snow95
Member
A massive storm to our northwest around 1/25 would be pretty ideal honestly. Build the snow pack and send high pressure down right after for our period of interest around 1/29
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Another run, another storm on 1/29
Cary_Snow95
Member
wasn’t going to leave it to chance tomorrow morning IMBY. 2-3” of fresh snow on the Pisgah Ridge along the Jackson/Transylvania line
rburrel2
Member
Euro ai might be trolling us, I dunno. But wow… another generational storm. It even sped up timing a bit.
Brent
Member
Yeah if this upcoming pattern doesn't produce I give up on this winter haha
The potential is just all over the place
The potential is just all over the place
Can you post the map when it’s done? Looking for my next cope to grab onto
rburrel2
Member
iGRXY
Member
There’s some ice during the middle of the storm as well south of I40iGRXY
Member
My guess with temps as cold as they are, the Kuchera ratio would be higher
NCSNOW
Member
Appreciate you sending pics on your journeys. So many 5-6000 ft peaks. I use to slip up to waterrock knob (6200 ft) on the pkwy back in the day more times than i can count Different world
NCWeatherNow
Member
Hows the EPS looking for 06z
It was a little sketch going up to Beech Gap today, but clear on the way down with temps above freezing and plows. Downright warm in the valley, upper 40s or more. Clouds hanging on back at the house
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
NCWeatherNow
Member
You have to remember that these things tend to end up farther north and west from where models are showing at this range
Tsappfrog20
Member
Not necessarily it depends on if you have blocking and where it’s coming from . With the blocking that is currently showing up it would have a hard time going much further north just in my opinion
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Posted about it last night, but the EPS is a little warmer with more ridging leading in to this time period compared to say the AI Euro Ens / Weathernext. But long way out for all of this stuff of course regarding how it goes with temperature / storm trends
Here are the last 12 runs of the AI Euro Ens - 48 hour snow for Jan 27-29
Now here is today’s 12z run (there is a glitch on SV where you can’t select the most recent run on trend loops for this particular map, but you can in others, which is weird). But anyway, nice looking mean here
Now here is today’s 12z run (there is a glitch on SV where you can’t select the most recent run on trend loops for this particular map, but you can in others, which is weird). But anyway, nice looking mean here
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NBAcentel
Member
lol 
packfan98
Moderator
Here’s the final Talley. Y’all want me to post the individual members when they finish running? Meteogram charts should be fun too.
AJ1013
Member
What’s with this model randomly spitting out blobs of snow in the tropics? Like how on earth is there a 0.1” mean here (as well as in various spots near the bahamas).
Tasty loop on AI Euro Ens
packfan98
Moderator
Well, I just thought yesterday’s run looked good. View these nsfw ensemble pics at your own risk. 
Yesterday’s AI Euro Ens vs Today’s (2nd image) for Jan 27
I will take 17 an call it a year or two. Good lord some bombs on here.Well, I just thought yesterday’s run looked good. View these nsfw ensemble pics at your own risk.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Well, I just thought yesterday’s run looked good. View these nsfw ensemble pics at your own risk.
View attachment 184673View attachment 184674
I get a cad (mega wedge) or overrunning setup vibe out of that, but a lot of agreement this far out.
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I have never seen anything like number 17 before.Well, I just thought yesterday’s run looked good. View these nsfw ensemble pics at your own risk.
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Oconeexman
Member
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Hell you can take that to the bank then!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That’s absolutely ludicrous. I’ve never seen an ensemble snow mean that high in NC
rburrel2
Member
This like 8 euro ai runs in a row with a monster winter storm in the southeast? For the same timeframe? The level of disappointment I’m gonna have if this doesn’t work out will be record breaking. I’ve literally never felt so good about a day ten threat. It’s scary.
There should honestly be more discussion about this than the event tomorrow. We don’t get looks like this very often. This is once a decade stuff.
There should honestly be more discussion about this than the event tomorrow. We don’t get looks like this very often. This is once a decade stuff.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
A LOT of boom/bust scenarios here. For GSP, 12 show a big dog; purple/pink/teal. But on the other hand; 17 (or about 1/3) show nothing at all or just a "dusting." This far out its doesn't mean much either way; just that there is a possible system at the time frame. Way too early to get drawn in by the means or pretty colors though. Naturally all us nerds will keep an eye out but just a word to the wise; control expectations and especially hopes.Well, I just thought yesterday’s run looked good. View these nsfw ensemble pics at your own risk.
View attachment 184673View attachment 184674
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I’m hearing the EPS was cold as well for the final week of January, did it trend colder than the 00z cycle? We need legit cold.
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rburrel2
Member
12 big dogs at a ten day lead is insane. It implies that the goal posts for this event are massive. Think of how far off each perturbation of the run by that time, and yet 12 of them are still hammer jobs?
I think as long as a majority of the polar vortex doesn’t drop out west in the day 7-8 range, we’re getting smacked. Euro and gfs are wanting to dump more out there, but I’ll bet the ai models/means are gonna win that battle.
That said, we need to make sure that happens and hold on to this look for another day or two… then whew…. We might finally be tracking something a lot less stressful than normal.
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GiantBear
Member
Let’s also appreciate the look for late next week; bit of a ridge pops but torching looks very unlikely this time around. Four days with highs forecast in the mid to upper 50s for me. Just a seasonal break that’s hardly warmer than climo.