Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

[ForsythSnow]

All 3 global models have support for some ice in CAD regions. This may be our ice storm chance this year.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

National championship day Ice storm threat. Oy

 

[ForsythSnow]

National championship day Ice storm threat. Oy

Also the day schools get back in session. If this happens, hopefully they make the right decision.

 

[GaStorm]

Also the day schools get back in session. If this happens, hopefully they make the right decision.

Forsyth county had the last bad ice storm in 2015 I believe. Luckily I kept my power on during that time but it flickered all night.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Forsyth county had the last bad ice storm in 2015 I believe. Luckily I kept my power on during that time but it flickered all night.

Yeah we got hit hard

 

[bnathanb1982]

What is the time frame on Monday 1/8/18? I'm in Athens, Ga area. Thanks!

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

What is the time frame on Monday 1/8/18? I'm in Athens, Ga area. Thanks!

Probably too early to tell at this point. Just know it’s a possibility

 

[ForsythSnow]

FFC has a 60% chance of ice here Sunday night. Seems like they have a decent amount of confidence in something.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

FFC has a 60% chance of ice here Sunday night. Seems like they have a decent amount of confidence in something.

Wow

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

18z may be a massive cutter

 

[JtSmarts]

KCAE's latest about this threat.

There remains some timing differences among the operational models
regarding this system but there seems to be a consensus on the
best chances of precipitation occurring in the Monday/Mon night
time frame so will continue to highlight the highest pops during
that time frame. Warm advection will begin on Sunday and
continue into Sunday night with the best moisture advection and
transport arriving through the day Monday with a strong
southerly 850mb jet around 40 to 50 knots. Thermal profiles are
such that precipitation begin briefly late Sunday night into
Monday morning as light snow or a snow/rain mix with wetbulb
temperatures below zero but will quickly transition to all rain.
Instability forecasts for Monday into Monday night suggest
little to no thunderstorm threat.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Gfs with with a 1037 HP off the coast of N.C. while the storm is in the Midwest

 

[atlweatherman]

Latest from FFC about next week's potential ice storm threat in the Northern Georgia - Metro Atlanta area...

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
The main change to the extended forecast was Sunday night into early
Monday. The potential for wintry precip has increased.

High pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through
the remainder of the week. The high center begins to shift offshore
later Saturday as a low pressure and front begin to move into the
mid Mississippi River Valley. By Sunday night, a wedge has formed
across NE portions of the forecast area. The wedge may end up
creating a wintry precip situation Sunday night into early Monday.
The cold temps at the surface within the wedge combined with the
warmer temps aloft will create the potential for freezing rain.
However, this is still 5 days out and the wintry precip potential
will be highly dependent upon the strength/position of the wedge.
The forecast will likely change.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

This may be a good GFS run if we can hold onto our HP

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Gfs with with a 1037 HP off the coast of N.C. while the storm is in the Midwest

Not sure if any blocking is holding it in place. Maybe someone can chime in?

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

INCOMING

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Not sure if any blocking is holding it in place. Maybe someone can chime in?

Looks like it slips out but cold remains

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Changes to rain after ice. Temps are 34 in NGA with a ton of precip.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Lasts almost two days

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

18z GFS looks wonky but precip is there and CAD signature is as well