• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

ForsythSnow said:
Also the day schools get back in session. If this happens, hopefully they make the right decision.
Click to expand...
Forsyth county had the last bad ice storm in 2015 I believe. Luckily I kept my power on during that time but it flickered all night.
 
KCAE's latest about this threat.

There remains some timing differences among the operational models
regarding this system but there seems to be a consensus on the
best chances of precipitation occurring in the Monday/Mon night
time frame so will continue to highlight the highest pops during
that time frame. Warm advection will begin on Sunday and
continue into Sunday night with the best moisture advection and
transport arriving through the day Monday with a strong
southerly 850mb jet around 40 to 50 knots. Thermal profiles are
such that precipitation begin briefly late Sunday night into
Monday morning as light snow or a snow/rain mix with wetbulb
temperatures below zero but will quickly transition to all rain.
Instability forecasts for Monday into Monday night suggest
little to no thunderstorm threat.
Click to expand...
 
Latest from FFC about next week's potential ice storm threat in the Northern Georgia - Metro Atlanta area...

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
The main change to the extended forecast was Sunday night into early
Monday. The potential for wintry precip has increased.

High pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through
the remainder of the week. The high center begins to shift offshore
later Saturday as a low pressure and front begin to move into the
mid Mississippi River Valley. By Sunday night, a wedge has formed
across NE portions of the forecast area. The wedge may end up
creating a wintry precip situation Sunday night into early Monday.
The cold temps at the surface within the wedge combined with the
warmer temps aloft will create the potential for freezing rain.
However, this is still 5 days out and the wintry precip potential
will be highly dependent upon the strength/position of the wedge.
The forecast will likely change.
 
Looks like an in-situ cad with the high sliding off shore.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Changes to rain after ice. Temps are 34 in NGA with a ton of precip.
Click to expand...
CAD is always underdone on models. And yes, there's no cold air coming in, but air is so cold and dry fine the Arctic shot that comes in tomorrow, will be here on Sunday and when precip starts with temps in the upper 20s and DP's around 5, it ain't gonna get above freezing with mod/heavy precip, till afternoon, if at all! Also this cold shot is staying colder longer! I was supposed to hit 40s Sat and mid 40s on Sunday, now Saturday is in the 30s and Sunday is 41. So trending colder! Get timing right, qpf, temps as modeled = disaster! Should def keep monitoring! Heard there is no ensemble support though!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
CAD is always underdone on models. And yes, there's no cold air coming in, but air is so cold and dry fine the Arctic shot that comes in tomorrow, will be here on Sunday and when precip starts with temps in the upper 20s and DP's around 5, it ain't gonna get above freezing with mod/heavy precip, till afternoon, if at all! Also this cold shot is staying colder longer! I was supposed to hit 40s Sat and mid 40s on Sunday, now Saturday is in the 30s and Sunday is 41. So trending colder! Get timing right, qpf, temps as modeled = disaster! Should def keep monitoring! Heard there is no ensemble support though!?
Click to expand...
No there is. I believe it was Shawn who read wrong enesembles and they actually very good
 
This one may be real for the serious CAD favored areas like Northeast Georgia/Upstate South Carolina. It's when the pattern relaxes a bit so I do think this might actually occur. It'll likely also go to plain rain eventually, but when? Because it doesn't take much ice for damage to be done.

(let's try to wish this away truthfully)
 
Oh Lord! A thread. Okay I'm in. Been feeling like an ice storm is coming since fall..this may be it.
 
DadOfJax said:
Looks like a cold rain to me, especially with the heavier precip bringing down warmer air. Will be a battle for sure.
Click to expand...
Lol! I hope everybody gets 1" ice accretion
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
What did GEFS say
Click to expand...
I'd say at least as ominous, if not more so; even South of ATL on some members:

GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_114.png
 
Huh....I've been so busy following the current storm I wasn't even aware there was another legitimate threat on the horizon. I like to track one storm at a time, helps keep some form of sanity. lmao

I guess I'll keep one eye open to this starting with the 00z model suite tonight.
 
Jinxed it by starting this thread so early. Will keep an eye but not buying in till this looks solid 48hrs out IMBY.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Huh....I've been so busy following the current storm I wasn't even aware there was another legitimate threat on the horizon. I like to track one storm at a time, helps keep some form of sanity. lmao

I guess I'll keep one eye open to this starting with the 00z model suite tonight.
Click to expand...

The idea is that, if precip can get in quick enough before the wedge departs (and its booking it), that some insitu wedge can get established for CAD zones. If you're outside optimal CAD zones, it won't last as long; but if you take a look at the Canadian that handles ZR better, it's very scary. I am waiting until 00z & 12z tomorrow before I start to take the Canadian seriously.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top