It is absolutely crazy that I am hoping we can stay at .5 or less of ZR for this storm. No matter what it will be a very high impact storm, but the less ZR the better. Hopefully the Nam is correct there and we can stay sleet for longer.
Do they expect some of this to dissipate when the sun rises? Because I'm in Athens, Ga and NWS says our precip shouldn't start until tonight but this looks like it could start this morning.
This is the initial overrunning finger of precipitation. This will keep mushing to our north and east I believe
How do you feel this will impact totals in those areas? More sleet or freezing rain. That’s about half of what other models are calling for.
Those thinking the dry slot will save you. Here’s your FGEN WAA during “dry hours” on the 3K NAM. This going over mid 20’s tells me the 3K is entirely too dry and at a minimum there would be light rain which again is even worse for ice accruals. You could easily see an additional 0.25” of ice during these 10 hours it’s supposedly “dry” and every single bit of it would stick
That looks spot on to the RGEM and RRFS as far as thermals go
Still pretty impactful on the ice side then. .4 or ice would still be bad for those areas.
Did the precip field expand or is it just moving that fast?
Definitely ahead of schedule. I would say that those of us in the CAD zone may not necessarily see the earlier start due to the much lower dew points and drier air that can eat away any early returns for a while.
That seems like to me that could be a good thing for us upstate folks, Eat up some moisture with Sleet Before temps actually start crashing?
I still think it’s on the table that we really get miller b precip min’d in Raleigh. But we won’t know until tonight when we see the radar.
Likely no. The precip shield is starting to fill in in Louisiana and Arkansas as the SW flow starts to take over off of the gulf. If anything this is just adding additional moisture and locking in the CAD faster.
Typical SE winter storm where we really don't know important details near go time. I blame CAD for this problem.
Wasn't very nice for me though. Seeing more and more reason to think just east of RDU gets more zr than RDU and NW. Fortunately not catastrophic amounts
Thanks for posting FRAM. Do they have that for RGEM/RDPS?
Interesting to see sleet over the west side of GA and not over Northeast GA where the wedge is.I’m worried the RGEM could be more right than the NAMs…
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overrunning/waa clockwork
The weather next seems so different with the totals for the I-85 corridor being drier. It will be a test for it on those types of minute details.You think it’s going to change that much by tonight. But I get it…you just like to be argumentative.
Maybe you like the GEFS better
The big 3…
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