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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

GaWx said:
If those #s were to verify, they might not be historic. However, that would still be the worst icestorm by a good margin since 2005 for downtown, Dunwoody, Alpharetta, Marietta, Stone Mtn, and Lawrenceville and would be enough to cause widespread tree damage and outages.
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Right, like I implied that it would be bad, but not historic
 
Reading over everything.

I don’t think it matters how slow the Baja low ejects, it’s gonna still dig & amp. There is nothing preventing it too anymore. Only thing we are doing is separating the first & second wave more (second wave being the Baja ejection). But I don’t even think we are gonna do that because the first wave is slowing down also. Either way this thing is gonna pop SW to NE.
 
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jrips27 said:
I’m in South Forsyth for this one. First time I’ve ever been in an Ice Storm Warning. Saddens me that there is property loss coming, but the weather geek in me is fascinated by it all. Hope everyone seats safe and there is no loss of life!
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My hope here in North Forsyth is we get enough sleet to cut down on the ZR totals. I’m not optimistic that’s going to happen. It indeed is fascinating to see all this come together: the wedge, the amount of moisture, the long duration, the winds, the cold to follow.

Just wish it was someplace where people and property wouldn’t be impacted. Almost jarring to see more than 1/2 inch of ZR be a virtual slam dunk for my location.

—30—
 
Very interesting snippet from the overnight NWS Raleigh discussion about the ability to overcome the freezing rain with the surface temperatures so unusually cold in this setup.

Further, significant warming aloft will ensue Sun-Sun night, when
forecast 850-700 mb partial thickness values are off the nomogram
high at around 1600 meters, with an associated general sse to nnw
mixing with or changeover to a predominance of freezing rain, as
those warm nose temperatures increase well above values to
completely melt any snow/ice nuclei falling through it. Despite that
complete melting, underlying cold nose temperatures are forecast to
be atypically cold (~minus 10C) and sufficiently so to yield
additional ice nucleation in the lowest couple of thousand ft AGL;
and that may allow for periods of continued snow and sleet
production, with crystal habits of the former that would favor
columns/prisms/needles that would not accumulate very efficiently,
particularly if accompanied by freezing rain as expected. The
aforementioned nwwd retreat of the surface wet bulb freezing line
into at least the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain will favor a
brief changeover to all rain there Sun evening-early Sun night, and
possibly into parts of the Piedmont including Raleigh, however
briefly around midnight.
 
Still a lot of details to figure out. Overnight models still spit out different solutions. GFS basically stood it's ground, and the NAM continues to show less precipitation. I "cherry picked" the UKMET which shows a good amount of snow for some areas.

Hour 51:
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***I don't believe it. Should be sleet.
 
rburrel2 said:
That 06z hrrr run was stupid. Look at these 925s at 1am sunday, and they were still getting colder.

View attachment 187884
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Now that's a wedge.... wow. Notice the area encompassed by the -10C isotherm. That is going to be some strange precip. You will have ice pellets and some small needles or sectored plates mixed in for good measure. Going to look foggy. Much better than freezing rain for sure.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Now that's a wedge.... wow. Notice the area encompassed by the -10C isotherm. That is going to be some strange precip. You will have ice pellets and some small needles or sectored plates mixed in for good measure. Going to look foggy. Much better than freezing rain for sure.
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I’ll happily take anything over super cooled water droplets
 
The 6z NAM shows only ~.61" of QPF for RDU. And a lot of that would be in the form of sleet. So it's solution would be the best case for the Triangle area. I would also think (from previous discussions) that there would be heavy freezing drizzle during the intervals between precipitation bands. As we discussed, this actually builds ice better than heavier rates.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Now that's a wedge.... wow. Notice the area encompassed by the -10C isotherm. That is going to be some strange precip. You will have ice pellets and some small needles or sectored plates mixed in for good measure. Going to look foggy. Much better than freezing rain for sure.
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I know this may be more banter but I’m genuinely curious why WRAL isn’t mentioning the sleet possibility? I’m with you guys with this because I feel sleet is a big possibility? Which as said cuts down the freezing rain totals.


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I’ve been so busy prepping I haven’t had a chance to look at the extended forecast. There is no relief in sight. Scrolling through he entire 384hr run of the GFS, this is the most brutal stretch of sustained cold I’ve ever seen. And it’s coming directly after an apocalyptic ice event. Unbelievable. Day after tmrw type stuff
 
rburrel2 said:
Euro had me in to the low 50s when a similar final band came through in 2015. I verified at 31 when it hit.
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I think your area is much different than Raleigh…we never have that problem. I think west of here where you are is in rough shape. 😫

AIFS much colder than Euro…let’s see who wins. In the 20s throughout


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As I think most of us have been saying, I’d toss the Euro on temps, unfortunate for those to my north.

Maybe the CAD erosion shows crazy results as far as me for a change, but most guidance suggests mid 40’s probably in a general swath around and nearby. It just seems like this erosion is “too effective” for wintertime.
 
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