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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

iGRXY said:
Sleet:View attachment 187780
Ice:
View attachment 187781
I feel the least confident in the sleet forecast. I think the upstate could actually end up with less sleet than this potentially. The ZR I feel confident in. The 85 corridor is going to be a war zone IMO.
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I think how your forecast distributes ice is very well done. Will I am still questioning the location, I think the verification signature will look like something exactly like this
 
griteater said:
Don't know if it was mentioned today, but a lot of that sleet showing up on the RDPS maps is freezing rain. Sounding here is from the Greensboro area - that's a +5 deg warm nose...should be freezing rain, not sleet...and it gets warmer aloft from here

View attachment 187767

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Not so sure about that to be honest. That cold nose is very strong and deep.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not so sure about that to be honest. That cold nose is very strong and deep.
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Honestly I’m not trying to be mean or anything I just don’t know either way, this is a rather impressive inversion. I would like to see what a subset of observed similar soundings to this actually verified as p type wise
 
Webberweather53 said:
Honestly I’m not trying to be mean or anything I just don’t know either way, this is a rather impressive inversion. I would like to see what a subset of observed similar soundings to this actually verified as p type wise
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Yea, I was wondering if there was a magic formula like: Warm nose xx feet deep at xx temp needs cold boundary layer at xx feet deep and xx temp to refreeze back to sleet. Seems like the possibilities are almost infinite though. Maybe there are likelihoods looking at a sounding but reality might just be seeing if the raindrops bounce?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Honestly I’m not trying to be mean or anything I just don’t know either way, this is a rather impressive inversion. I would like to see what a subset of observed similar soundings to this actually verified as p type wise
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Could potentially be somewhat rate dependent until the warm layer gets deeper? Eg Could see -ZR in places under lighter precip
 
Nomanslandva said:
Yea, I was wondering if there was a magic formula like: Warm nose xx feet deep at xx temp needs cold boundary layer at xx feet deep and xx temp to refreeze back to sleet. Seems like the possibilities are almost infinite though. Maybe there are likelihoods looking at a sounding but reality might just be seeing if the raindrops bounce?
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supposedly you need around 1000 to 1500 feet of sufficiently subfreezing air for it to refreeze. But i'm sure that is rate dependent too.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
No, that is most definitely sleet! .... With 925's that cold, hydrometers cannot reach the ground before re-freezing. Matter of fact, that is cold enough for a second dendric growth layer. Trust me it will be sleet 100% of the time with a sounding that cold below 850.
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Makeitsnow said:
But it falls into a surface temps in the teens with a minimum temp of around 10 off the surface and a subfreezing layer that is thousands of feet deep. No way that is freezing rain.
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Chazwin said:
Serious question. That sounding shows the temp going sharply back freezing at 850mb down to a 2m temp of 17. Is that not enough time for a rain drop to refreeze? I ask this seriously because I remember in January 2004 during that Super CAD, at my house in Concord with daytime temps right around 20 with ZR forecasted. Instead what fell was this frozen mist that accumulated more like sleet and didnt accrue on trees
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Webberweather53 said:
Not so sure about that to be honest. That cold nose is very strong and deep.
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Webberweather53 said:
Honestly I’m not trying to be mean or anything I just don’t know either way, this is a rather impressive inversion. I would like to see what a subset of observed similar soundings to this actually verified as p type wise
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Ha, yes, this is complex. And I will never claim to have all the answers. For this scenario, if the snowflake melts completely in that warm layer, it can't refreeze as sleet in the cold layer because at that point, it doesn't have ice nuclei to attach to after if fully melts. Instead, it would remain as supercooled water droplets. However, the part about the sounding going back into the dendrite growth zone in the lower level that Cad Wedge mentioned (and I know you've brought it up too recently Webb), it may be possible that it could turn back to ice if it picks up ice nuclei in that lower DGZ and has time to then refreeze before it lands....maybe like what Chazwin was talking about

Jan 22 Warm Layer.png
 
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WolfpackHomer91 said:
Look, tbh this will anger some ….. this may be a “dangerous” potential event. But we’ve all seen this time and time again, these earth shattering amounts modeled that have never been recorded and never will, bc it’s impossible. I’d bet my left you know what no one from GA - VA ends up more than 1” FRZN. Yes that’s dangerous, but that’s never happened in 150yrs of records if I’m not mistaken and this weekend will be no different. My forecast at worst would be “UP TO 3/4”” even in the worst spot no more, ever. No matter what I saw on any model. This will not become some 1000yr event, be realistic we’ve all been here.


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Augusta to barnwell area got got 1 - 1.25 inchs of Ice in 2014 in multiple spot measured by the NWS and there were 2 events between 1949 and 1952 that brought 2 inches plus in the southeast
 
griteater said:
Ha, yes, this is complex. And I will never claim to have all the answers. For this scenario, if the snowflake melts completely in that warm layer, it can't refreeze as sleet in the cold layer because at that point, it doesn't have ice nuclei to attach to after if fully melts. Instead, it would remain as supercooled water droplets. However, the part about the sounding going back into the dendrite growth zone in the lower level that Cad Wedge mentioned (and I know you've brought it up too recently Webb), it may be possible that it could turn back to ice if it picks up ice nuclei in that lower DGZ and has time to then refreeze before it lands....maybe like what Chazwin was talking about

View attachment 187790
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This is what grok says about it. but google's ai says it will only be supercooled. interesting.

correction if you ask google's ai without mentioning it being super cooled (if it will just refreeze) it will say it refreezes. So who knows? lol

Thresholds for Sleet vs. Supercooled/Freezing RainFrom meteorological guidelines (NWS training materials, sounding analyses, and research like Zerr 1997, Cys et al.):
  • Sleet favored when the subfreezing layer near the ground is deeper/thicker — commonly ~500–1,000+ feet (sometimes cited as 750–2,000+ feet or ~200–600+ meters) thick, and often colder (e.g., mean layer temp well below 0°C).
  • Freezing rain (supercooled drops) dominates with a shallow cold layer — typically <500–1,000 feet (often just a few hundred feet), especially if the layer isn't cold enough or the drops are larger.
  • Borderline cases can produce mixes (sleet + freezing rain), and the exact cutoff varies with:
    • Drop size (larger drops take longer to freeze).
    • How cold the layer is (colder = faster freezing).
    • Warm layer details aloft (affects how fully melted the original precipitation is).
In short: Yes, shallow cold layer → supercooled liquid drop (freezing rain on contact) instead of frozen sleet pellet. The difference often comes down to just a few hundred feet of extra cold air depth — that's why sleet and freezing rain can switch quickly over short distances in the same storm.





27 web pages
 
WxBlue said:
I mean, I'd be okay with less ice.
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Fact is, if .5 precip falls and all is frozen, that's a major winter storm around here (I know you know this) and there will be areas with much more than that. He's just trolling or being stupid, not sure which
 
Holy smokes f these models. Make up your minds. The ptype problems I can deal with but the QPF differences are a major headache. I could fully discount the NAM at this range if it wasn’t for those pesky AI models trending drier. Still think there will be plenty of -ZR drizzle. But there’s a limit to how much you can squeeze with only .6-.9 QPF. All the OGs are super QPF bombs by our wintry standards.

Deep CAD zones seem like locks for 1.0+ at the least. Even the drier AIs have that. The fringes southeast are what are messing with me most
 
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