Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
RRFS just said reversed course on that. Much more precip.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I do think we will end up seeing a some kind of a dry slot in the usual areas as the surface low fills and reforms. That seems reasonable. How much that is is TBD. No way to know right now.
The caveat is that if the fill/reform occurs farther south, which I do think is still within the scope of possibility.
The caveat is that if the fill/reform occurs farther south, which I do think is still within the scope of possibility.
Just FWIW, the NAM nailed the dry slot long range in 1/2011. Don't discount it.
RGEM would be a nice compromise between the ICON and Euro/NAM.
And then the big heavy N-S band that swings through...depends on temps.
BHS1975
Member
Isn't that usually in the Charlotte area?
Yeah...this isnt' our first miller b...not sure why dry slot is such a unimaginable thought.
2.3” QPF and counting at GSO on the 12z RGEM, all-frozen, at the end of its run, and it’s not over yet. 
It's budged some if you look at the contours over NC and precip type. It's a "warm" model isn't it? Gives me some hope.
RGEM is most trusted shorter range model according to AI I read. But that is at 24-48hr outputs2.3” QPF and counting at GSO on the 12z RGEM, all-frozen, at the end of its run, and it’s not over yet.
Watch the position of the low pressure that will form off the coast. If it hugs the coast, chances are that dry slot might materialize for many of us.
No, the Icon isn’t a “warm” model. Where is this coming from?
Kidney bean ZR on the RGEM
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Darklordsuperstorm
Member
From Ice storm in northern half of Alabama 
to this sounding from southwest Alabama
to this sounding from southwest AlabamaMakeitsnow
Member
Compared to the other models it's been the most steady imo.
I hope it has a good handle on the thermals as it gives me hope to be sleet at my local until maybe mid morning sunday. Here we can see subfreezing temps in the heart of the cad region over ga and sc up to 900mb at 12z. That's 3000 feet of subfreezing air and depending on where you are the coldest layer is as low as 19/-7c.
Stormsfury
Member
Geez, bring out the icenadoes with this look.
Serious note, if this remotely verifies out, there will be potential for thunder freezing rain.
Heelyes
Member
So snow in the next 10 days
Be nice if it's a fast mover at that point and temps rising
Chase1983
Member
Steady soaking rain today in NE GA - no idea if that has any effect in a situation like this but i'm assuming having wet ground is probably not great in a potential ice storm with regards to tress falling?
NBAcentel
Member
RRFS with thunderstorms entering the wedge and 20s for most of the wedge areas in NC, has about 14-15 hours of sleet bomb for CLT from onset onwards 
Yall always forget this one! Looks like it’s setting up to be NAM-like
If we could overlay the member map with current radar that would be sick 
rusrius
Member
Gandy knows his stuff. When he talks, pay attention.
Psalm 148:8
Member
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It’s also showing a climatologically correct wedge..right or wrong.. it’s consistent!
More ip than freezing rain ? Hoping we can stick with sleet for as long as we can in clt
NBAcentel
Member
There’s a shot for a longer sleet duration, but there’s also just as much as a shot for damaging ice and an earlier onset of it. Probably would put CLT right near a .75 contour of ZR
i love the weather forums but the downside is that somebody will say something that sounds right and it will be canonized for years despite it having not scientific backing
smast16
Member
As if the ice wouldn't be enough to nuke the trees, now lets add a squall line!
Was sure I read it but maybe I'm confusing it with another model. I'll have to go back and look at which ones trend more towards a "warmer thermal look" than actual proven fruition. For goodness sakes don't canonize a general comment like that. Certainly not on this forum anyway.
The people who were saying "OMG WE ARE GOING TO LOSE ALL QPF" or "Georgia is only getting a cold rain" were making me so mad. They just take one model and run with it. I feel like good forecasters held onto the ice and sleet threat the whole time.
I’ve definitely heard from AmericanWX about the ICONs “warm bias” but it was probably a coopium thing because it came in worse. I’m pretty sure I’ve also seen it struggles a lot with P-Type depictions though.
He's also not an attention -----. He's all business.
CltNative90
Member
Sleet has saved the day more often than not in Charlotte since 2002. I’m hoping and praying that’s the case this time around, or we get dry slotted. My family living in what some would consider the inner city, there are repercussions of long term power outages that probably aren’t even being considered at the moment, similar to when a hurricane hits a major city (looting, etc.) This could get bad on many levels.
This may be banter, but I stated last night that he nailed the January '88 storm as well. He knocked it, and as you stated Hurricane Hugo, out of the park. Gandy is extremely credible and a good listen.
Unfortunately, when it comes to weather (and this isn't directed to you), people get all emotional - emotional because they don't get the kind of weather they want, emotional about weather forecasters being wrong, emotional that the models are trending wrong, emotional when someone has a different idea, emotional about people posting 384 maps, etc.
It's just weather. If you get this emotional about weather, what in heaven's name happens when something actually important happens in life? We need to get out of our feelings and understand that weather forecasting, predicting, guessing, is a very, very humbling experience. Models and forecasts are going to change. Forecasters are going to be wrong. People are going to say stupid stuff sometimes. It's all part of the experience.
EDIT: just ignore me - it's maybe a smidge warmer but still quite an ice storm for ATL
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beanskip
Member
Is there any history to fall back on with AIGFS CAD performance? Pretty eye opening to see it 4-10 degress warmer than the Op GFS on CAD temps over the Carolinas and Georgia.
SimeonNC
Member
Are we looking at the same GFS because the GFS buries N/NE GA and Upstate SC with ZR.
chapelhillwx
Member
