Dunkman
Member
This is our classic storm for a Miller B. I'll be surprised if it doesn't end up looking something like this.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Gig time CAD with ice, nonetheless.
rburrel2
Member
Icon coming in even colder than before with the wedge surface temps
Looks like the ICON is another QPF nuke with surface temps in NC again in the teens for the most part. Going to be another cataclysmic run. Also verbatim showed a little more front-end snow thump than last run.
chapelhillwx
Member
Interesting that the ICON looked better initially. Wonder if it's just finding its way to a different result with baby steps.
buckinbronco
Member
yep another qpf bomb
I can't believe what the ICON is showing for NE GA.
Man the ICON wedge is insane. It's been so consistent with this placement and strength
Tsappfrog20
Member
The rdps has a sleet bomb for Central NC
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And with surface temps in ATL in the 20s throughout the event. Yuck.
18z ICON shows 2-3"+ QPF all-frozen for ATL, CAE, GSP, CLT, RDU, GSO, etc....Temperatures in the low teens to low to mid 20s depending on the locale. Gotta be too extreme to verify?
Tsappfrog20
Member
Great info from Jeremy who is a Hurricane Hunter
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icon held the baja low back. i really think delaying that thing and delaying all the diabatic heating it produces with precip/storms over mexico helps us a lot
Packsox03
Member
Primary low makes it well up the apps. The big snows (12+”) start at Harrisburg, PA. Woof
Dunkman
Member
I don't think anything depicts sleet very well from what I've seen.
Clown snow map from the 18z ICON from the front-end thump FWIW (some of this could be incorrectly coded and I don't have soundings for the ICON to really check beyond the "popular" mid-level layers):
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Front end thump was bigly for my neck of the woods on RGEM. It is a great model for CAD so love the way this looks at this range
Packsox03
Member
GFS does it by far the best of any global. For the others, you will have to use tropical tidbits and see individual soundings
I am wondering if all of these "great" trends that get posted early on are just timing issues...basically just delays in the inevitable. Otherwise, we'd see a better translation downstream, yes?
The higher res models do. The NAM does...but is it right?
Packsox03
Member
Borrowed from the MA forum on AmericanWx. Dryslot sets up over VA and MD as primary dies in WV and transfers near OCMD. Textbook miller B evolution
wow
Member
Same happened with last Jan's storm. Everyone seeing encouraging signs early in the runs, then .. nope. But with an opposite effect here. Last year we wanted amped.
Brad saying cold rain for Midlands. That’s bold. 
wow
Member
Raging miller B with a strong -NAO. Nice.
rburrel2
Member
The problem is there’s like 8 moving parts out west and they need to line up just right to go amped… but just because one trends what we think is “favorable”, if another
piece comes in differently it may actually help the two to line up better collectively
We really need the Baja low to speed up bc if it gets out in front of the main trough dropping down, the models having a third piece getting pooped out the back of the trough which helps tone down the amperage. If it’s late enough but still catches, then everything has a chance to come out more cleanly.
at the same time, the Baja low coming out early will hurt front end thump chances too though. So it’s a double edged sword
chapelhillwx
Member
I don't think I've ever seen a model output where Statesboro is at 27 and Hiawassee is 34 and raining lol
NEGaweather
Member
North Georgia gonna be without power for weeks
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Dunkman
Member
fwiw, most east of the APPS can shave about .5" off of the ICON clown total precip map, which falls on Friday before the CAD builds in.
SimeonNC
Member
Not to met bash but there's no way the midlands end up as cold rain lol.
Looks like the 15z SREF was heading for pingermageddon for much of NC, for what it's worth (not much).
The 18z GFS is running, hold on to your sleds!!
The 18z GFS is running, hold on to your sleds!!
Could that be cause CAD doesn't come south enough?
Tell me why. Because things are heading that way from what I'm looking at on my end, even amongst some ensemble members.
Euro is good model and Brad is not a bad forecaster. He just gets attacked for not being enough of a snow hound like all the others
NCSNOW
Member
14 degrees and dumping sleet here on latest RDPS / last Frame
Btownheel
Member
NAM is pretty good once we hit its sweet spot. Still 24-36 hrs. to go there though.
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Rockie wave more west this run and TPV more slightly south this run. 