Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[Webberweather53]

Whenever I see the EURO and UKMET with similar solutions, I have found they are hard to bet against. Yes they tend to erode CAD too fast but they also can pick up on the dreaded warm nose better than the GFS/Icon and that is what they are doing here. Surface temps will likely be predicted too high on them but the problem is the upper levels warming causing the ZR and IP to increase and snow to decrease in amount and area coverage. I am old so I remember a storm in W-S back in the early 80's and watching Paul Delagato explaining why we were getting IP instead of SN at 17 degrees. It never rose above that surface temp but the IP went on for hours it seemed.
The parent High has been nudging North now for several EURO runs and, even though it still remains pretty strong, it moved from NY up into Canada and that is never good for us regardless of the strength of the High. It is NOT just the millibars of the High but also the location of where it sits. Could things still make some changes, absolutely (and probably will) but I don't see them being major ones. I am still hoping Atlanta and Charlotte can miss out on the ZR because those metro areas have huge populations that could be dangerously affected by a lot of ZR

Climatologically, Greensboro is the freezing rain capital of the Carolinas. Any more north or amped trends would put them in the line of fire, tho I personally think the CAD will verify stronger than the Euro or UK solutions

 

[RBR71]

Good morning folks. We kindly ask you not to copy and paste the entire NWS discussion here. Feel free to use snippets, summaries, or post the direct links for folks. Thanks!

Bump

 

[KyloG]

GFS vs Euro at 84 hours. We might not know until tomorrow

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Can someone correct me here, but we want more separation from the Baja low and the N trough correct? This forces the low to be neutral tilted with the trough, vs the Euro which almost looks to kick the low in front of it, allowing it come north?

Yes. Below is the difference at 72 hours between the EURO and GFS. For a more southerly solution, only 12-24 hours later, we want the western extent of the double-barreled TPV in Canada to have less interaction, and the further east the western extent of the Canadian trough is, the better. It's a subtle difference with immense impacts on our sensible weather shortly thereafter.
GFS vs EURO

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

NWS Predom Weather

 

[malak05]

Well it's hard to see HRRR differences don't have a 500 Vort map I have access too but it's definitely colder and is more separate at 48 compared to Euro deciphering 500 winds and temps

 

[Brandon10]

Well it's hard to see HRRR differences don't have a 500 Vort map I have access too but it's definitely colder and is more separate at 48 compared to Euro deciphering 500 winds and temps

Only 48 hours but HRRR wants very little to do with baja. New NAM coming in.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I was surprised the ICON held as cold as it did at the surface in the CAD regions at 6Z. Despite this move to the EMCF CMC camp.

 

[Crow]

Can someone post the euroai ensembles?

 

[RBR71]

This is what Rah NWS relies on, let's see how it corrects today. It does lag behind but has last night's 0z runs in it. Gives slight hope but I also know it's a snap shot and not trend

 

[wow]

I think the PV is getting kicked out too quickly on the amped models. Things are going to settle back some. Climatology will win back some of these moves.

 

[jackendrickwx]

GEFS will catch up eventually:

 

[Tsappfrog20]

This is what Rah NWS relies on, let's see how it corrects today. It does lag behind but has last night's 0z runs in it. Gives slight hope but I also know it's a snap shot and not trend
View attachment 186868
View attachment 186869

I agree i was looking at there point forecast and it has Raleigh with about 5 inches on Saturday before transition to sleet and freezing rain on Sunday


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[Webberweather53]

Can someone post the euroai ensembles?

Here’s the 5 run trend since 6z yesterday. Progressively ticking north with the snow at least.

I interpret these as favoring more of a sleet storm in central NC with freezing rain in southern NC thru the pee dee of SC into the midlands



Surface temps during the height of this storm with the cad at its strongest

 

[rburrel2]

GEFS will catch up eventually:

View attachment 186871

you can see how these moves make the CAD stronger/surface temps colder.

 

[Mitch West]

Long range doofus NAM running. Let's see if we can pick up some better vibes over the coming hours.

 

[jackendrickwx]

you can see how these moves make the CAD stronger/surface temps colder.

I don't doubt the strength of the CAD personally, but I think the overall depiction from the American camp is too optimistic snow/sleet wise in general. But wouldn't be shocked to see more sleet than currently modeled on Euro

 

[GaWx]

GEFS will catch up eventually:

View attachment 186871

Looks like the typical NW trend, usually the best bet, is continuing just like for many storms including the last one.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I’m kind of in a sit and wait mode at this point.

I need to see what the NAM looks like tonight when it gets legitimately a bit more in range.

The Canadian is honestly pretty good with cad too actually, it just doesn’t get the synoptics right a lot of times which may be its downfall at the moment

 

[RSG]

This is what Rah NWS relies on, let's see how it corrects today. It does lag behind but has last night's 0z runs in it. Gives slight hope but I also know it's a snap shot and not trend
View attachment 186868
View attachment 186869

I think you're probably right. If the trends continue today that's going to drop. But verbatim I think most would be very satisfied with those snow amounts. Even in the upstate 3 inches is a massive win considering the last 4 years. We got too caught up in this historic snow talk too early. It looks kinda like it always did from the start imo. If you ignored goofy yesterday like I hope most did you weren't sucked in

 

[CaryWx]

Here’s the 5 run trend since 6z yesterday. Progressively ticking north with the snow at least.

I interpret these as favoring more of a sleet storm in central NC with freezing rain in southern NC thru the pee dee of SC into the midlands

View attachment 186870

Surface temps during the height of this storm with the cad at its strongest

View attachment 186872

You can see that sw-ne orientation (especially over NC) setting up like it always does despite what models were showing earlier with it being east-west

 

[LukeBarrette]

Part of me believes that we will see the SE Canada vortex trend better right up to verification. This would bring more cold air down further into CAD regions. We see this every single time before a CAD storm, I know @NBAcentel can remember quite a few times this occurred. You can think back to last year Feb 11, 2025 when the first initial thump of snow trended at least 100 miles south. One of my friends that lives in far SW VA was only expected to see an inch of snow and saw 5 inches before the changover.

 

[LongRanger]

Can a Low really plow right into that Strong a HP? I mean I would have to think (a little) that the Low would stay further south?

 

[MSnowAtl]

Can a Low really plow right into that Strong a HP? I mean I would have to think (a little) that the Low would stay further south?

Its all about the HP placement.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Can a Low really plow right into that Strong a HP? I mean I would have to think (a little) that the Low would stay further south?

(About to give a stupid but truthful answer) Yes, physics say that warm air flows to cold air. Thats been known since the beginning of time. Our HP has trended poorly to our North which makes it an even worse situation.

 

[Rain Cold]

There are a lot of shortwaves, some of which are in data sparse regions that will affect how things eventually turn out.

We will continue to trend one way or another, but we will soon close the window on very big trends. My HOPE is that we arrest the north trend today to give us some wiggle room to move back in the other direction. If we get too far out of the game over the next 24 hours, then that seals the deal for very little snow and potentially a ton of freezing rain (and sleet in certain places).

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Can a Low really plow right into that Strong a HP? I mean I would have to think (a little) that the Low would stay further south?

Yes. it will take the path of resistance. I spent many years believing it couldn’t plow into a big high because that’s what the forums always hounded on but I’m here to tell you it can. Then it will just jump right over the top of it when it can’t go any further

 

[Ross]

every model that ive seen is still incrementally ticking north and we will have to sit here and be pain sponges until further notice

"must be nice for you in richmond ross!"

brother the euro gives me an inch and a half of ice. to quote the cure, i'm in the same deep water as you

 

[Brandon10]

I do not think the NAM is moving in the right direction...

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Can a Low really plow right into that Strong a HP? I mean I would have to think (a little) that the Low would stay further south?

That's not how it works.

The Upper Level Jet drives the surface pattern, not the other way around.

If you get a look like last night's UKMET, that can certainly happen.

 

[Wulfer]

There was a system years ago that I remember being modeled consistently for a huge Ice Storm in the southeast for several days on all of the models and about 60 hours out the models shifted the track of the low hundreds of miles north and ended up being a rainmaker for many except for a few in the CAD areas.

You are correct but, not sure what month that storm took place. Also, its snowed in Chattanooga when all the forecasters (including local media) reported it would rain. Chattanooga can be very difficult area to forecast when it wants to be.

 

[NEGaweather]

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[Arcc]

That's not how it works.

The Upper Level Jet drives the surface pattern, not the other way around.

If you get a look like last night's UKMET, that can certainly happen.

Every year since I've been part of weather forums, this same insinuation comes up and every time those who think that way have their dreams crushed.

 

[superjames1992]

I think at the end of the day, snow or ice, this will be the most impactful winter storm in central NC in at least a decade, and perhaps longer. That less sure to be true as you go further south into SC and GA, of course, where the trends can truly take this out of wintry territory. But on most modeling that handles CAD adequately, we aren’t even seeing the major NC metros really get even close to freezing at the surface for the majority of the storm, if at all.

It sucks most of it probably won’t be snow, but let’s not undersell the impacts!

I would still bet many in NC start as snow before transitioning to IP and eventually ZR. How much we get before the changeover is anyone’s guess. I do think SN probably isn’t going to be the dominant P-type south of the NC/VA border, though.

 

[jackendrickwx]

NAM looks like the Euro at the edge of it's reliable range, that's about all you can glean from it IMO

 

[rburrel2]

The quicker you guys can come to terms with the fact that we’ve lost the snow storm aspect of this the better.

Then we can focus on the ice portion of the storm which is trending worse and will continue to do so.

The same mechanisms that are sending our storm farther north are also getting our high pressure in to a better position faster for CAD. Expect warmer mid levels and colder low levels as a result. This ice storm is going to be an all-timer. Either get on board with that and enjoy tracking it or continue to wallow in sorrow over the snow that’s not happening.

 

[Rain Cold]

We REALLY need to dispel this erroneous notion that a storm cannot plow into a high pressure. You can have a 1050 MB high over IA this morning and a 1040 high over the northern great lakes by the evening. The pattern drives the movement of low level synoptic features.

A high pressure is not a stand-alone roadblock that just does whatever it decides to do. It follows physical rules which govern the larger behavior of the atmosphere. It MUST obey the laws of physics just as everything else does. If the pattern supports it remaining in place, then it will. If the pattern does not support that, then it won't.

Ross posted about this last night. But the bottom line is, a big high pressure doesn't stop low pressures just because it has a 4 or 5 in the third digit.

Maybe we should pin a comment at the top of the site during the winter or have a scrolling message that says this.

 

[RSG]

Can a Low really plow right into that Strong a HP? I mean I would have to think (a little) that the Low would stay further south?

See @jackendrickwx post earlier. Sw digging over the west raising 500mb heights back east allowing the surface high to move north. So the low isn't really moving the high, the high is moving allowing the low to come north. But its still a strong high and likely overdone with how far north the primary gets before it transfers to the coast

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

One thing that has been rock steady is the massive 1050+ high into the Northern Plains on Friday.

 

[SD]

We REALLY need to dispel this erroneous notion that a storm cannot plow into a high pressure. You can have a 1050 MB high over IA this morning and a 1040 high over the northern great lakes by the evening. The pattern drives the movement of low level synoptic features.

A high pressure is not a stand-alone roadblock that just does whatever it decides to do. It follows physical rules which govern the larger behavior of the atmosphere. It MUST obey the laws of physics just as everything else does. If the pattern supports it remaining in place, then it will. If the pattern does not support that, then it won't.

Ross posted about this last night. But the bottom line is, a big high pressure doesn't stop low pressures just because it has a 4 or 5 in the third digit.

Maybe we should pin a comment at the top of the site during the winter or have a scrolling message that says this.