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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

KyloG said:
I do vividly remember in the Feb 2014 the overrunning came in a lot quicker than modeled, I remember because I was at work and had to panic rush home. Maybe GFS is onto something with the quicker onset.
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I mean the QPF does like to come in faster then modeled.
 
tractor girl said:
Will there truly be much of a NW trend if this high verifies as 1045+ hpa?
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To answer your question more thoroughly (earlier today my 1 word response got deleted) Yes. I do think the ~1045 high will verify. This doesn’t mean the freezing line will move as far north (or really much at all) as the precip shield. I think models showing the broader expansion of precip (as fluffy powder) over central KY and the lower Ohio valley states will verify a good bit more than the much more suppressive models (like the GFS). Considering how the GFS did at this same range with Jan 17-18th’s system I am not putting much stock in the GFS at all. We are dealing with a lot of precip and a lot of cold here. The heaviest snow (due to the Kutchera effect) will be around and above the TN/KY & VA/NC state line. This doesn’t mean, however, that the freezing line will be anywhere near here, due south for 100-120 miles the snow rates will be less (closer to 10:1 or 8:1) and even further south sleet and eventually zr will be very serious over north central GA & central AL.
 
bouncycorn said:
Wind chills well below 0F... with likely millions without power.
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i cant help but have this pit in my stomach alongside the excitement of tracking this storm -- because the potential for such immensely widespread harm with the notion of record breaking low wind chills across towns that might end up almost entirely lights out is just.... yeah. i cant shake it.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
@wow @SnowNiner welp …. We will never see a more brilliant map than this. Star of the show here


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The GFS looks very pretty on the map but it’s not to be trusted. While it did catch the Jan 23, 2016 winter storm NW trend when the Euro didn’t, the GFS is not the same model as then. The GFS is not to be trusted with this system. It’s track record so far hasn’t been good this year. We need to stick to the Euro Icon, AIFS Ens mean, and even the Canadian may do better than the GFS here.
 
broken025 said:
Lol. I probably get 6 inches of sleet from this.
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I pulled up our soundings and we are so borderline sleet/snow. My guess is that it would be probably 6 inches of sleet sandwiched in between a couple inches of snow to start and another couple inches to finish. BTW that run gives us a low of 1 on Tuesday morning
 
Rain Cold said:
I wonder if something like this is even synoptically possible. I mean, it isn't going to happen, but still...

@Ross getting his proof of concept in spades.
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The way the heights over the SE turn SSW before the Baja wave even kicks out makes this about as good as it gets overrunning wise. Supreme long fetch. But it’s the GFS. I suspect we won’t end up quite as much west to east with everything come game time (I believe there will be a bit more tilt to the NE unfortunately). Time will tell though

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EthanLovesWeather said:
What the heck. That’s low to just copy and paste what you said in the thread into his verified twitter account. What a bozo.
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Might want to delete this...Bouncycorn is Andrew...
 
Definitely love a more visible sleet solution for my area. Even after just looking at the soundings, it still reflects as "sleet/snow" for my coordinates. I didn't look at the upper level dynamics, but I would have to assume that the upper levels would be colder to print out those crazy sleet totals
 
NCwx1992 said:
i cant help but have this pit in my stomach alongside the excitement of tracking this storm -- because the potential for such immensely widespread harm with the notion of record breaking low wind chills across towns that might end up almost entirely lights out is just.... yeah. i cant shake it.
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This is probably gonna be the most significant winter storm we've seen in years. I wasn't alive for the January 2000 storm but looking at these model runs when they come in and reading through the thoughts I can imagine this is what that storm must have felt like. And then include the potential for ice? Very dangerous
 
NEGaweather said:
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That warm nose has to be stout for it to be mainly ice in far NE Georgia
 
JalenW25 said:
This is probably gonna be the most significant winter storm we've seen in years. I wasn't alive for the January 2000 storm but looking at these model runs when they come in and reading through the thoughts I can imagine this is what that storm must have felt like. And then include the potential for ice? Very dangerous
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yes, it must have been a crazy time. even crazier is that the 2000 storm didn't even show up on the models until the GFS (I believe) showed it the night before. the rates were crazy on that one.
 
griteater said:
The way the heights over the SE turn SSW before the Baja wave even kicks out makes this about as good as it gets overrunning wise. Supreme long fetch. But it’s the GFS. I suspect we won’t end up quite as much west to east with everything come game time (I believe there will be a bit more tilt to the NE unfortunately). Time will tell though

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What is interesting to me and scary is if the Baja energy comes out later, so that we get the tremendous SSW overrunning, followed by some amping of the system with more tilt to the NE, but then additional strengthening with a bombing Atlantic low with more snow to end. 18Z GFS hints at this with the backside snow, along with a few other models.
 
Tuesday, Jan. 20 5:30 PM - Thoughts from NWS Atlanta

----------------

Some things to talk about with this event. This is shaping up to be
a potentially high impact event with moderate to major impacts. With this amount of model consistency in the overall setup we are gaining confidence that this could be a long duration event as well. With initiation as early as Saturday afternoon and wintry precip looking to extend into Sunday evening and potentially into Monday.

The WPC reconnaissance flight should give us a better picture into the duration of this event. At this point (almost 4 days out) we are confident that wintry precip will affect north Georgia in areas north of I-20. The area south of I-20 to Macon and Columbus are a little more uncertain but models are consistently forecasting wintry precip for this area as well.

A few factors into how much/what type of wintry precip we receive are the influence of the wedge expected to take shape and then how far north the front pushes.

When it comes to the wedge, the ensembles were having a tough time over the past two days resolving the wedge but the ECMWF ensembles are beginning to depict it better as of 06z and 12z.

Current thinking is that snow will be the main precip type for far north Georgia and wintry mix/freezing rain will become the main concern for the remainder of the north Georgia area. There is still a decent shot that we see this freezing rain transition to more of a snow event as we get into late Sunday and Monday but that is a bit more uncertainty.

Focusing on the probabilistic information for now.
--> 40-50% chance for 0.5" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 25-30% chance for 0.75" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 15-20% chance for 1" or greater of ice accumulation through the weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 30-45% chance for 2" or greater of snow accumulation through the weekend for the areas north of I-20.

Please take note of how this has ramped up from yesterdays
discussion. What we want you to focus on is being prepared for a
potentially high impact event this weekend. We will likely see more
changes over the coming days but please make sure you have a plan to endure this event which could include power outages.
-------------------


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iGRXY said:
I went through my soundings and again, the pretty maps show sleet, the sounding is snow until Sunday morning at 1 am.
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Yeah I went back and looked at mine a second time and honestly a lot of what was showing as sleet should have been snow. Obviously a bit to far out to give much credence to that kind or detail but still interesting
 
Stormdoc said:
What is interesting to me and scary is if the Baja energy comes out later, so that we get the tremendous SSW overrunning, followed by some amping of the system with more tilt to the NE, but then additional strengthening with a bombing Atlantic low with more snow to end. 18Z GFS hints at this with the backside snow, along with a few other models.
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If we do see a strengthening low pressure off shore, I would think we start seeing other models show a flip back to snow like that GFS run just did. It would tap into that cold air on the backside and could set up a heck of a deformation band
 
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