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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

If it it suppressed further south would the northern precip be bigger than what is modeled? Or does that depend on the Low track ?


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Tokenfreak said:
Is it possible this could trend further south and colder to completely get rid of the ZR so everyone gets either sleet/snow only?
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the cold high, and please bear with me, vertically is shaped like a shield volcano. so think of the structure of the cold air shaped like this. this is stupid but it's the only way i could think of how to describe it
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this doesn't change. that low level cold bleeding in will always be a feature. zr is always going to be around with this setup- no way to get rid of it, it's just pinning down where that zone is.
 
Well if we keep going south that could be a problem. I was not in the camp that this south trend would hold… I would still typically favor going north around hour 90 but dang models are consistently going south .. yall wanted a dominate high pressure .. well it’s coming and it might be screwing the upper south before too long..

Might have to eat my words about this thing going north
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Well if we keep going south that could be a problem. I was not in the camp that this south trend would hold… I would still typically favor going north around hour 90 but dang models are consistently going south .. yall wanted a dominate high pressure .. well it’s coming and it might be screwing the upper south before too long..

Might have to eat my words about this thing going north
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But usually when you get close to the event, the HP strength is weaker on the models? I have seen that before. this could be the other way around.
 
Webberweather53 said:
What would be totally bonkers to see is if we managed to get multiple snow growth zones from this because the low level cold nose is so strong you’re making snow just above the surface and then the warm advection aloft makes another one higher up 😂
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What would that do?
 
ChattaVOL said:
0z runs will be big..

Dumb Question….

Will they fly into this storm at all?

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I think the odds are good that there will be reconnaissance flights into what could be the winter storm of a lifetime for many of us. They had flights into this past weekends storm.
 
So question, that warm nose that’s been on every model run since most have been tracking this (causing the lack of wintry precip in central AL), do you guys see that going away or will it stay like that?

Basically what I’m asking is, how far south can the wintry precip go?
 
Webberweather53 said:
What would be totally bonkers to see is if we managed to get multiple snow growth zones from this because the low level cold nose is so strong you’re making snow just above the surface and then the warm advection aloft makes another one higher up 😂
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I’ll be honest. I’ve never heard of this or imagined it was possible. Do you have examples of storms this might have happened?
 
Chazwin said:
I’ll be honest. I’ve never heard of this or imagined it was possible. Do you have examples of storms this might have happened?
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Jan 1988 might be a good one actually just from the way that was setup. Once your temps aloft get down into the mid 10s or so you can really start to make use of that, however small the snow production might be. Can’t hurt
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Well if we keep going south that could be a problem. I was not in the camp that this south trend would hold… I would still typically favor going north around hour 90 but dang models are consistently going south .. yall wanted a dominate high pressure .. well it’s coming and it might be screwing the upper south before too long..

Might have to eat my words about this thing going north
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I don't think high pressure systems get much stronger than the 1050mb+ shown with this storm. Of course, I thought I would never see some of the things I've seen so far with this potential storm.
 
RollTide18 said:
So question, that warm nose that’s been on every model run since most have been tracking this (causing the lack of wintry precip in central AL), do you guys see that going away or will it stay like that?

Basically what I’m asking is, how far south can the wintry precip go?
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warm nose is kudzu it isn't going away especially with our lifting mechanism being warm air advection

wintry precip, whatever your definition is of it, could go plenty south though with the strength of the cad
 
Webberweather53 said:
We got multiple kitchens going to make more snow

The lower layer probably wouldn’t be as efficient but that could really give a boost to places that also have other mechanisms like upslope flow for ex.
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Would this ratchet up FGEN? Perhaps increase possibility of thundersnow?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Jan 1988 might be a good one actually just from the way that was setup. Once your temps aloft get down into the mid 10s or so you can really start to make use of that, however small the snow production might be. Can’t hurt
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Mmm. One of the things that always stood out about that storm is that I remember the flake size varied so much between chicken feathers and pixie dust. I’m assuming this what caused it?
 
Chazwin said:
Mmm. One of the things that always stood out about that storm is that I remember the flake size varied so much between chicken feathers and pixie dust. I’m assuming this what caused it?
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Yeah I could see how that happens because that snow growth layer is so close to the surface and you’re saturated enough, you may not able to fully sublimate those tiny flakes before they reach the ground. In a setup like this where it’s so cold, even those little buggers are gonna stick like glue
 
Ross said:
warm nose is kudzu it isn't going away especially with our lifting mechanism being warm air advection

wintry precip, whatever your definition is of it, could go plenty south though with the strength of the cad
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Yeah, I still dont see the GFS or Icon handling the CAD signature correctly over GA/AL. As long as we get the GFS/non-Amp look, it's gonna get nasty over central AL.
 
Mpirone12 said:
Correct me if I’m wrong but a lot of places are staring down a significant winter storm. Whether it’s snow or ice is yet to be seen?


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Agree! At least, that's my interpretation from observing all the maps showing feet of snow and inches of ice for thousands of square miles posted in this thread today.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Jan 1988 might be a good one actually just from the way that was setup. Once your temps aloft get down into the mid 10s or so you can really start to make use of that, however small the snow production might be. Can’t hurt
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I wish I could recall the storm, but I know for a fact there is a storm where the GSO RAOB had a warm nose aloft but was saturated with very cold near-surface temps below -12c and GSO was reporting snow not FZRA despite a classic FZRA sounding. For some reason December 2002 is a guess at GSO, but I'd have to check obs and soundings. Point being to @Webberweather53 suggestion, it definitely has happened with a very cold low-level air mass before in NC.
 
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