Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Excuse me
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Stormsfury
Member
Hopefully, someone can grab the UKMET, but based on seeing the stationary grab posted, that looked like the Baja Low getting dragged completely and shoved eastcan you post 500mg vorticity? I need to see that loop so we know what not to do
Won't matter with an H5 look like that.
trackersacker
Member
GEFS has this coming in potentially as early as Friday morning which is basically 4 days away 
billyweather
Member
Still snowing on some of these at the end
Interesting trend.
Yeah, see #21 above? There is the end result. Haha.
I hate ensembles esp the GEFS but a trend is a trend
Not all maps loading but appears AIFS was ice storm at best for most.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Incredible signal.. This system has serious potential just need to live up to it. It's been a long time since we've had a real CAD setup. 2022 doesn't really count imo since it was a ULL
Stormsfury
Member
Ah, I see what the UKMET did. Dumped a shortwave out west and the UKMET never cut the Baja into a closed cutoff...can you post 500mg vorticity? I need to see that loop so we know what not to do
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Iceagewhereartthou
Member
That is a lot of change, who knows where it will end up. Verbatim, the Eastern Carolinas outperforming the Western Carolinas there, which has been a theme for much of the past decade or more, but especially the past few years.
Not too dissimilar to 18z AIFS, just a very icy solution. We just didn’t talk about 18z AIFS cuz we didn’t like it
UK could be on to something. It did catch back on to the system earlier today first. As bouncycorn said, ao many variables but we need that cold press first and foremost. Suppression is low on my list of worries
its too much of an anomaly showing that kind of winter storm, i will go with a lean towards the ukmet tonight
NBAcentel
Member
AIFS locked in to a disastrous ice storm at 12z and hasn’t looked back 
Yeah that would certainly change things down stream. Something to watch
Wedge holding on for dear life Fro
Forevertothee
Member
That is lights out.....days.
Yeah, nuked the western ridge. This thing may amp, but I'm gonna say that way is probably on the unlikely side of things.
bncho
Member
Not to be a buzzkill or anything, but once that Euro AI is locked onto a solution it is locked on. Sometimes it shows the same thing even within 48 hours, even when it's absolutely wrong, though. Right now it's a FWIW.
Hmm...
trackersacker
Member
This past weekend we wanted a negative tilt. So now this next weekend we get compensated by one in the four corners
NBAcentel
Member
This run was perhaps slightly weaker with the low, but man…. Really concerning look with ice 
The timing of this lining up with the Jan 2000 event is wild 
SimeonNC
Member
This is the more realistic solution than the UK imo.
this is the storm that finally made me break down and pay for pivotal
but yeah new euro ai is warmer, baja trough pumps the SE ridge some and shoves our entire temp gradient northward some. not a jolt but enough to make you say hmm
but yeah new euro ai is warmer, baja trough pumps the SE ridge some and shoves our entire temp gradient northward some. not a jolt but enough to make you say hmm
trackersacker
Member
Oh joy 
Stormsfury
Member
Key pivotal change is the opening of the Baja Low. With such a cold press, it looks like it could head into classic Miller-B territory with primary looking a little like UKie but having to transfer offshore (since it physically can't bust thru a wedge east of the Apps).
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Major changes out west
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
It appears to me the difference on AIFS and Operational runs is the way they're handling that pacific shortwave. AIFS seems to phase it very easily with the baja low, without interacting much with the TPV itself. While operational runs appear to actually the pacific wave interact with everything else. I'd keep a general eye on this idea given one is low res and one is a little bit higher res data.
Edit: However euro does seem to bring in that pacific wave into the baja low and phase. That might make it go much further north. Models vary significantly with how much they interact with that shortwave as well.
So many moving pieces with this storm, going to take quite a bit to figure out.
Edit: However euro does seem to bring in that pacific wave into the baja low and phase. That might make it go much further north. Models vary significantly with how much they interact with that shortwave as well.
So many moving pieces with this storm, going to take quite a bit to figure out.
HailCore
Member
Something is rolling in a bit earlier than the moisture on 12Z
tractor girl
Member
I was 4 years old living in Athens when this happened. Power out for over a week, it was bitter cold, and we cooked from a Coleman camper stove. Hot chocolate was a treat that week. We weren't allowed to go outside, at least I wasn't. Just a couple months after this we had the F4 rated tornado that passed over just a few miles from our house
NBAcentel
Member
Just a reminder, a lot of that is sleet, and a ton of it. Probably would be some 3-5” swaths of it if this actually played out. euro loves to overcook ZR, 925s around -5 to -10 is pretty ideal for sleet 
1051 stepping into the arena Friday morning
Makeitsnow
Member
It was a 5F at 925 for ATL on the 12z and now it is -2 to- 3 now. It trended colder if I am looking at it right.
Makeitsnow
Member
Yuck
