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Swell
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Swell
Another incoming.
SimeonNC
Member
That might actually the lowest modeled thickness I've ever seen. 474mb over Lake Superior/
She’s trying to be a miller a.
Looks like a getting a better cold push from the north.
If only we could get a cyclone to spin up in the gulf. Would be an absolute unit.
ChattaVOL
Member
Do you think precip fills in over Tennessee or we will have that dry slot early on ?
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Lawd have mercy!!
Hello!
Bouncy is this a concern? Or we heading to another storm like we just had this weekend??
This is like some 384 hour laughs level stuff, it's stalled on the front
So sick
This junk is like 120 hours away lol
This run is something else, jesus.. trying to cyclogenesis near Texas??? Under that massive banana high?
NBAcentel
Member
Reason why the AIGFS sucks is because it’s to elongated with the TPV appendage, and that boxes us in with warmer air, and disrupts the cold feed. Not to concerned given nothing else showing if but it’s in the back of my mind, sometimes these TPVs don’t play nice 
Breaks into 2 different systems??
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Appears to reconnect later in the run.. This run may be a huge dump of snow.
broken025
Member
Snowing from New Mexico to Bermuda 
Holy smokes, this is an all-timer run right here... and only ~144hrs out.
SnowmasterATL
Member
snow for ATL first...then a sleet maker...I think!
multiple impulses?
This might be an all time stupid GFS run if it can hold
bncho
Member
I was thinking that the GFS would be completely terrible for me with that 1090 high, but then it starts snowing in DC? GFS shenanigans lol
Yeah I don't know that I've ever seen something like this, even in fantasy range. And I'm not even just talking about the surface/snow.. just the meteorology of it all. The never-ending overrunning followed by cyclogenesis attempts off the SC coast AND the Texas coast at the same time, just prolongs the moisture fetch under a tank of a banana high.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
The weird thing is, do you even see this as an impossible scenerio? I feel like if you get a general overrunning setup with a high pressure that strong, it could be a legit risk in an extreme scenerio. This is something we need to monitor extremely closely. Could be an outlier run.
and I’m proud to be an American
NBAcentel
Member
This is insanity 
NCSNOW
Member
Hammering. Almost Whole state of NC foot plus on kuchera and still going
Lumberton approaching 2 feet lol.
Then we go below zero
Lumberton approaching 2 feet lol.
Then we go below zero
Snowing in the low 20’s and teens. That would be epic. Imagine the rates on this!!
Snow from NM all the way to NC with some ice even down into MEXICO. This is crazy
24hrs after the snow starts its still going as the coastal forms
Here you go kiddos.
SnowmasterATL
Member
I checked the sounding in ATL.. Snow...a good amount of sleet and then back to snow...this is the city proper.
Idk how this can even be possible. And it’s not the only model that has shown it this way. But I’ve never seen it so my gut just tells me it can’t happen like that.
Honestly I’ve seen this run before but it was 8-10 years ago at about hour 357 when the map pixels start to get real spludgy and grainy
NBAcentel
Member
CMC not exactly looking great, looks like it’s hanging back the TPV
SnowNiner
Member
I guess that puts a cutter on the table. So many small differences can create drastic variables. Couldn’t ask to be any better in the game for next weekend though. Goal posts feel a mile wide for at least a warning criteria event of some kind.
The AI models really are insisting on too much of a south east ridge. When you look at the footprint of the surface maps it does seem clear most of the frozen precipitation is pointed toward the mid-Atlantic. Hopefully that blocking keeps pushing it south and does work, sink that 850 line into SC.
dsaur
Member
My eyes always light up when I hear "split flow". My best storms have been in a split flow, and often back to back. Get the cold air in place, and stubborn, and the impulses keep riding in.
CMC 