Sctvman
Member
Philpott is on it
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
Robust trend
Couple more Weathernext images on SV...
Classic heavy overrunning look here with 850mb low moving NE into TN. PType comes down to the amount and depth of cold air in place out front as the mid-level warm advection pours in from the south and southwest. Storms like 1/10/11, 1/7/88, 2/19/79, 1/7/73 (and others) had this look at 850mb, with heavy snow in northern areas, and a mix farther south
Classic heavy overrunning look here with 850mb low moving NE into TN. PType comes down to the amount and depth of cold air in place out front as the mid-level warm advection pours in from the south and southwest. Storms like 1/10/11, 1/7/88, 2/19/79, 1/7/73 (and others) had this look at 850mb, with heavy snow in northern areas, and a mix farther south
This *could* be an insane ICON run
Incoming on the ICON, great start to 0z suite
Central NC getting absolutely smoked, never seen anything quite like this before.
Bigedd09
Member
Snow really breaking out in NC on icon. Ice further south
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iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Gotta say, I have learned a lot about AI models from you. Very interesting how it works truly feels like Next Gen weather forecasting. Obviously not going to be super accurate long range. But gotta say, AIFS has been on this storm for a very long time in general.
Whoa, looks kinda like Weathernext2
Bigedd09
Member
Jeez 0z Icon is insane. Wow. Not sure I ever remember such a strong signal for a storm in my years of actually tracking the weather
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Bigedd09
Member
Still going too..
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It's even better....colder
Icon with a true southern slider, gotta love it
wow
Member
ICON looks rather fabulous. Baja low a little more east but so was the PV which will keep this from trending north.
NBAcentel
Member
Wtf, these surface temps are wild 
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Close for Atlanta, but a slam for toccoa... Reminds me of 2021 too much and I don't like that... That was a heartbreak
SnowmasterATL
Member
and that is fine for me...sleet or snow no ZR for me... on to the GFS and GEM...
Bigedd09
Member
I think it shows that suppression (for some of us lol) is certainly a bigger concern than any NW trend.
I do not. We need deep cold air. But hey, none of us know exactly what's going to happen. Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS was south again though, but no concerns with it
NBAcentel
Member
Even without a full Baja pickup, this thing has a bunch of QPF 
Considering AI models are super amped now I agree with this
Bigedd09
Member
I just feel like deep cold air has suppressed storms the last couple of years. But after today’s storm yes we need the cold air in here lol
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NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 642
- Reaction score
- 1,775
Current WPC Guidance
Rare setup where we get the precip potential with the retrograding block, cold TPV source region, and big, cold sfc high. Would be disappointing to not cash in here, but it's always tough
I hear ya, but the cold TPV is sliding moreso east across southern Canada rather than dropping strongly south into the conus. Only the last GFS run was really dropping it south....again, not concerned with the GFS. Sure, I'd love it to look great, but not going to let it ruin my sleep at night
Bigedd09
Member
Yeah for sure. Just exciting to have something legitimate to track and considering the gfs is on an island again I’m confident that it’s probably wrong
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The thing that's nuts is that we usually spend most winters chasing, scratching, and clawing to get a few decent building blocks in place for a winter storm. To actually see a pattern on the doorstep that resembles something that produced some of the historical storms that we frequently reminisce about is pretty amazing...and fun.
iGRXY
Member
Getting snow in general on any ICON run is like hitting the powerball. Basically it doesn’t happen.
Would be happy to, or even a Q+A thread
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
May want to keep an eye on this first wave for certain areas of the NC mountains. May lead to quick burst of rain/snow mix or snow at higher elevations.
Icon went full niño
One thing I want to note about this event: we are looking at EXTREMELY low predictability. Just look at all of the components interacting. Follow the shortwave in the Pacific that becomes the Baja low. Several complex interactions in the pacific, then the whole question of the ejection of that energy & the interactions with the northern stream. Just an absolute mess of a forecast, so I expect massive model variability moving forward.. and we may end up with something completely different than most models have at this time.
broken025
Member
Alright.
1050 on the GFS and it's ready to party
