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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

While yes we are "far away" time wise but from looking at the current model outputs, this would be about as bad as the 1973 Ice Storm that struck Metro ATL/ North GA in Jan 1973. That one was more of a "tree/powerline" issue rather than a roadway problem in most areas. Many were without power for up to 4-5 days . Models have this one as much more widespread across the SE.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Freezing rain is always over-modeled as an fyi. This looks like fun to track for the next week tho!
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Be carefull. That happens cause its usually 29-32 temps,fighting latent heat release battles etc.

1040HP camped out and temps in low mid 20s, is flashing red light. It will freeze every drop
 
NCSNOW said:
Be carefull. That happens cause its usually 29-32 temps,fighting latent heat release battles etc.

1040HP camped out and temps in low mid 20s, is flashing red light. It will freeze every drop
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Yeh, that’s the thing to watch. If there is zr with temps in low 20s at surface it will absolutely freeze on immediate contact. With that type of extreme entrenched HP though I have a hard time buying a lot of that doesn’t fall as sleet.


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So we have a too amp'd model run (or two) and this one that leaves the wave behind? Amongst other runs
 
dsaur said:
How often does it snow in the gulf? I'm betting when fronts blast down thru Mobile, they get some squalls on the oil rigs. Can the abacus tell us??
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Tony,
I’m sure that happens sometimes as long as they’re not too far offshore, the wind is offshore and strong, and the airmass is very cold. But that’s beside my point that the WxBell Euro AI ensemble snow maps have to be using faulty algos. Here’s proof:

From today’s 12Z Euro AI, this is member #38’s 6 hour snow map for hours 270-276 showing a blob of a foot of snow in the Gulf 300 miles from the N Gulf coast meaning an avg of 2”/hour over 6 hours lmao:
IMG_7272.jpeg

That right there is proof enough that the snow algos are screwed up bigtime. But fwiw, I’ll also show the temp anomalies for hours 270 and 276 for that member:

Member #38 temp 2m anom hour 270:
IMG_7274.jpeg

Member #38 temp 2m anom hour 276:
IMG_7273.jpeg

Those temp maps show that the coldest it is during hours 270-6 where it has that snow blob is only ~8 BN. The SST there now is ~77F. That means that the air temp during the supposed snow is likely no colder than ~65F. There’s no way it could snow a foot way out in the Gulf while air temps are 65F+.

Conclusion: There is a major algo issue with these Euro AI ensemble snow maps. Thus, I’d be very wary about using these snow maps. Case closed!
 
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