Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

After today, the forecast indicates it doesn’t get above the 30s here for the next 7 days.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That's a classic weakening line setup

I was saying that because it looks like some members throw a secondary shortwave at us that digs far south

 

[SD]

I was saying that because it looks like some members throw a secondary shortwave at us that digs far south

I think the 0z euro did that, that would be problematic

 

[deltadog03]

The euro look reminds me of a piece of the vortex dropping down into Canada....The northern branch swinging energy through and dragging a front through. Also the lower pressures in the GOM to me tells me something might try to ride that thermal gradient (ie front) that gets stalled down there.....Something to watch....pattern recognition for sure.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

For 6Z Sunday, the NAM that just ran at 18Z is 6 degrees colder than the GFS at that same time and about 2 degrees colder than the euro.

 

[Turner Team]

Anybody have the 12Z EPS for the Sunday system?

 

[ATLwxfan]

The euro look reminds me of a piece of the vortex dropping down into Canada....The northern branch swinging energy through and dragging a front through. Also the lower pressures in the GOM to me tells me something might try to ride that thermal gradient (ie front) that gets stalled down there.....Something to watch....pattern recognition for sure.

GFS had a wild overrunning look a couple days ago that pulverized middle GA up into ATL. If that look comes back on another run, we may need to get ready to play craps.


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[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a big damn difference

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

That’s a big damn difference View attachment 68575View attachment 68576View attachment 68577View attachment 68579

Gfs over long range nam any day of the week

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gfs over long range nam any day of the week

I’d normally agree but the GFS is on a island with those dew/temp depictions

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Gfs over long range nam any day of the week

Definitely not in CAD situations. I’d use the JMA before GFS in CAD setups.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I’d normally agree but the GFS is on a island with those dew/temp depictions

Icon looked like it was a touch warmer at the surface

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon looked like it was a touch warmer at the surface

lol Charlotte is gonna find a way to get shafted to the NE then from the NW

 

[Clem282340]

Are we starting to lose this next storm

 

[Stephenb888]

I don’t think we (upstate Sc) ever had it to begin with.

Are we starting to lose this next storm

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Are we starting to lose this next storm

Pretty much. euro has backed off a lot and icon warm as well

 

[iGRXY]

I don’t think we (upstate Sc) ever had it to begin with.

It’s borderline right now. Temps are hovering right around freezing but there’s still plenty of time. You need to watch the synopsis of the storm more so than temps until we get into mesoscale range. As long as globals maintain at least mid 30’s on runs, we should keep watching this one.

 

[Jessy89]

In all honesty the upstate hasn’t really been in a storm at all this year


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[Ethan80963]

Here’s the 18z EPS and control. For this weekends system.

 

[KyloG]

This Sunday/Monday deal looks big...