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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

One thing to note is the globals handling of wedges. Even today for example. The 12z euro had me getting up to 73. Now obviously with this system we wouldn’t bust low by 15-20 degrees like we saw with a lot of people today but you can generally shave 3-7 degrees off those temps at the surface with globals right now. Biggest thing to take from them is looks like we have Miller b setup with strong HP building in from the north and a good bit of moisture pulling in from the south. Then we wait until Friday to get into the NAMs range for temp profiles.
 
iGRXY said:
You can take another 3-6 degrees off those temps as well. That’s a lights out for days ice storm in north and South Carolina
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I think 1-3 is generally more accurate given it’s closer in range now, still tho it’s ugly
 
iGRXY said:
You can take another 3-6 degrees off those temps as well. That’s a lights out for days ice storm in north and South Carolina
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I have to ask but the warm bias gets thrown around a lot for the ICON to the point that I now wonder if it really is as serious as y’all say it is . Not denying it has one I really haven’t paid it much attention , just feel it’s become an automatic assumption to disparage it or push the desired outcome .
 
Lickwx said:
I have to ask but the warm bias gets thrown around a lot for the ICON to the point that I now wonder if it really is as serious as y’all say it is . Not denying it has one I really haven’t paid it much attention , just feel it’s become an automatic assumption to disparage it or push the desired outcome .
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Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. I've seen a whole lot of people assume the ICON is too warm. The only time I use the warm bias rule is when it is a warm outlier. The ICON this run isn't an outlier, therefore I'm not changing what it has.
 
Lickwx said:
I have to ask but the warm bias gets thrown around a lot for the ICON to the point that I now wonder if it really is as serious as y’all say it is . Not denying it has one I really haven’t paid it much attention , just feel it’s become an automatic assumption to disparage it or push the desired outcome .
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Beyond 84 hours the warm bid at the surface is pretty bad. Similar to the cold bias of the Canadian. It’s generally 2-5 degrees too warm in that range.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. I've seen a whole lot of people assume the ICON is too warm. The only time I use the warm bias rule is when it is a warm outlier. The ICON this run isn't an outlier, therefore I'm not changing what it has.
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Yeah in its past most of the time I’ve seen it be warm by 1-3 and that’s 50% of the time, I think temps here verbatim are close to being right, maybe shave off 1-3 at most
 
iGRXY said:
Beyond 84 hours the warm bid at the surface is pretty bad. Similar to the cold bias of the Canadian. It’s generally 2-5 degrees too warm in that range.
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Yeah, but not all the time it's an outlier, just like sometimes the CMC isn't an outlier. Since it is very much in line with the Euro, I don't see any reason to automatically assume this model is wrong.
 
Icon will probably trend colder especially if the Euro does to


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Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, but not all the time it's an outlier, just like sometimes the CMC isn't an outlier. Since it is very much in line with the Euro, I don't see any reason to automatically assume this model is wrong.
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CMC isn’t always wrong though when it’s 20 degrees colder than all models I’m more than dubious that’s for sure lol.
 
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