January 2021 - Joyless January
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Given that we're starting to get inside the super fantasy range on the models, I think now is a pretty good time to break out the January thread. Going into this winter, I personally wasn't expecting January to be anything but another snowless blowtorch, however this year seems poised to be ready to do something different.
We've had a respectable-solid -NAO for much of December and we've avoided being blowtorch and have at least had glimpses of wintry weather potential, with some of us picking up a trace of snow, I'd consider that a win in the context of Decembers since 2011
Early indications are we're going to start out January 2021 potentially on at least a slightly favorable note for snow/cold in the SE US.
The first big clue is the fact that on a subseasonal/week-week scale, we're going to see a huge positive E Asia Mtn Torque prior to the end of December (+SLPAs (warm colors) over Russia, Mongolia, & China). This should keep the Pacific jet unusually strong/extensive for a La Nina, w/ a stronger than normal Aleutian low favoring (more) +PNA well into in early January.
Although the caveat will be that the Aleutian low will be slightly poleward thanks to the La Nina. This will create a pattern that favors weakening &/or total destruction of the polar vortex by early-mid January as the climatological, standing planetary waves will be enhanced. Even if we don't see a sudden stratospheric warming event & subsequent downward propagation of the circulation anomalies into the troposphere, this wave forcing will keep the polar vortex much weaker than last winter, helping us to avoid an all-out super +NAM/+AO blitz & giving us ample opportunities to get a -AO from transient waves in the troposphere.
We've had a respectable-solid -NAO for much of December and we've avoided being blowtorch and have at least had glimpses of wintry weather potential, with some of us picking up a trace of snow, I'd consider that a win in the context of Decembers since 2011
Early indications are we're going to start out January 2021 potentially on at least a slightly favorable note for snow/cold in the SE US.
The first big clue is the fact that on a subseasonal/week-week scale, we're going to see a huge positive E Asia Mtn Torque prior to the end of December (+SLPAs (warm colors) over Russia, Mongolia, & China). This should keep the Pacific jet unusually strong/extensive for a La Nina, w/ a stronger than normal Aleutian low favoring (more) +PNA well into in early January.
Although the caveat will be that the Aleutian low will be slightly poleward thanks to the La Nina. This will create a pattern that favors weakening &/or total destruction of the polar vortex by early-mid January as the climatological, standing planetary waves will be enhanced. Even if we don't see a sudden stratospheric warming event & subsequent downward propagation of the circulation anomalies into the troposphere, this wave forcing will keep the polar vortex much weaker than last winter, helping us to avoid an all-out super +NAM/+AO blitz & giving us ample opportunities to get a -AO from transient waves in the troposphere.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This place has been really hopping lately, can't wait to see what it'll look like when a real winter storm comes calling.
Love to see the thread title!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I hope I'm not jinxing us here when I say this: not gonna lie, I've been waiting for the shoe to drop on a torch pattern to rear its ugly head around here, I still don't see any definitive signs of one on the horizon (yet).
I mean... maybe we try to flip towards a more stereotypical NINA/-PNA look by mid-January as an MJO wave tries to encroach on the Maritime Continent. However, if we see a sudden stratospheric warming event begin to try & take hold by then, as the current hemispheric z500 pattern suggests, you might as well toss that idea out the window & just buckle up for the ride that'll ensue.
SSWEs matter more for Europe & it's basically a coin flip whether the pattern gets better or not after one begins around here.
Some research I did in passing on storms several years ago on winter storms in NC and global tropics circulation patterns showed that when we snowed, it usually occurred when -VP (cool colors) showed up between 30-60E longitudes over the East Indian Ocean. I suspect if there is a relationship, it has to do w/ a westerly wind duct opening up over the Tropical Atlantic, encouraging Rossby Waves over N America and the east Pacific to move equatorward.
Lo & behold, one of these 30-60E longitude -VP200 bursts is starting to show up on the models in early January as an MJO-like wave enters the Indian Ocean.
I mean... maybe we try to flip towards a more stereotypical NINA/-PNA look by mid-January as an MJO wave tries to encroach on the Maritime Continent. However, if we see a sudden stratospheric warming event begin to try & take hold by then, as the current hemispheric z500 pattern suggests, you might as well toss that idea out the window & just buckle up for the ride that'll ensue.
SSWEs matter more for Europe & it's basically a coin flip whether the pattern gets better or not after one begins around here.
Some research I did in passing on storms several years ago on winter storms in NC and global tropics circulation patterns showed that when we snowed, it usually occurred when -VP (cool colors) showed up between 30-60E longitudes over the East Indian Ocean. I suspect if there is a relationship, it has to do w/ a westerly wind duct opening up over the Tropical Atlantic, encouraging Rossby Waves over N America and the east Pacific to move equatorward.
Lo & behold, one of these 30-60E longitude -VP200 bursts is starting to show up on the models in early January as an MJO-like wave enters the Indian Ocean.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Locking this thread as I believe we stated staff was going to be making the threads going forward due to an issue regarding threads being invisible to some members.
This thread is now open for business!! POST AWAY!.!.!.!
NoSnowATL
Member
Honestly With the way the PV might progress, late December 2017/January 2018 Comes to mind
That was when we had a long cold snap that lasted 2 weeks or so. A lot of areas stayed below freezing all of New Year’s weekend, there was a big coastal snowstorm a couple days later followed by more extreme cold( single digit and sub zero lows)
If Judah said the sun would rise tomorrow, I wouldn’t believe him! #HACK
I love the 12z GFS! Lots of potential!! #LOADED
It’s the same spiel with him every year:
“Polar vortex looks like it might split! Too early to tell which side of the globe the good piece will go but confidence is HIGH it will go somewhere! Stay tuned!”
Just remember, he’s on southernwx
Cmon change the thread title .. we need some positivity or karma will never give us the benefit of the doubt with these potential storms and patterns
Nah, the title prevents us from being jinxed.
I think if we title threads that is negative from now on, maybe that will help our chance.s
I was looking through some previous first weeks of January to compare to the GEFS, and I found a striking resemblance to January 2011. Obviously, there isn't a s/w in the SW that became our storm, but there's a strong -NAO, and +WPO.
