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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

SD said:
Idk its just so relatively warm below 925. The good thing is it looks like some level of CAA is starting across more of our local area. I just don't know if we run out of time
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Yeah, it's really a race against time, and one where we usually know how it turns out (not well). But there's always exceptions to the rule!!
 
SD said:
Idk most of the models that were aggressive at least for mby were change over around 16/17z problem is I don't think I'm changing over in the next hour or 2
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Yeah, at this point it's hard to see a changeover in the Triangle until 3-4 PM or later (if that) and we'll probably be running out of moisture around then, I suspect. Just gotta hope for heavy backbuilding. I kind of expect to see snowflakes here (though I may indeed be wrong), but I am having a hard time seeing any accumulations at this point (aside from maybe a dusting on elevated surfaces kind of deal). It's going to take some work to overcome the warm, saturated ground and it's still daytime which doesn't help (although later in the afternoon will help).
 
Here in Mooresville the sky has the snowy look to it. We may not see a single flake but it at least feels like snow out there finally.

Thankful for the rain we got too and this primar for what’s to come over the next few weeks (hopefully)
 
Didn’t even get a sprinkle in northwestern Spartanburg county. We were plenty cold enough. Just couldn’t get an ounce of moisture this way
 
Webberweather53 said:
I can actually believe that. Despite surface temps being in the upper 30s right now, your wet bulb zero heights are actually less than 1500 feet above ground (as analyzed by the HRRR), which would support a rain/snow mix at the surface.

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I came down to DT for a rental car and got to see snow. As soon as I got back to my house near Landrum and we couldn’t even get a sprinkle
 
So, I am now getting a little mix. But I had to go sit in the car and look at the drops hit my windshield. Little specks of ice. Temp has dropped down to 38.7 degrees. Seems like in the past ~37 degrees is (usually) the magic number to get down to.
 
RDU folks, we do have nice rain rates right now. That in itself is great to fight the drought. But it looks like the heavy stuff will move out before it cool enough. Unless there is some back-building.
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Hoping for what Big Frosty is getting later this afternoon.
 
FallsLake said:
RDU folks, we do have nice rain rates right now. That in itself is great to fight the drought. But it looks like the heavy stuff will move out before it cool enough. Unless there is some back-building.
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Hoping for what Big Frosty is getting later this afternoon.
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Looks like it’s snowing just west of Greensboro according to mPING reports


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Updated forecast from NWS RAH is a downgrade (though the boom map is still honking): :D 🌭 🌭

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After being stuck at 40° for almost 7 hours I have dropped 2° in the last 30 minutes. Currently cold rain 38/36 in Randleman, North Carolina. Still holding out hope for a few snow flakes.
 
dsaur said:
As soon as the sky lightened, the white vanished everywhere. Now you see it, now you don't. It's the story of the last 30 years, or so. Need some cold in place, with a reinforcing high, well placed, and a slow, weak gom low tracking over N Fla. Clippers don't do it most times. Need a SnoJam storm...been way, way too long since I saw a storm with staying power.
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You’d be surprised how much melts even with mid 20s temps but full sun. I’ve had big snows of 5 inches and seen 70% melt off in a few days with temps not getting above the upper 20s. Some sleet mixed in and a bunch of cold cloudy days though and I’ve seen it stick for almost 2 weeks!
 
olhausen said:
You’d be surprised how much melts even with mid 20s temps but full sun. I’ve had big snows of 5 inches and seen 70% melt off in a few days with temps not getting above the upper 20s. Some sleet mixed in and a bunch of cold cloudy days though and I’ve seen it stick for almost 2 weeks!
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I remember when I learned this as a kid. We had a day after a couple inches of snow where we had full sunshine, but temperatures didn't get out of the upper teens (or maybe low 20s). By the end of that day, our powdery, high-ratio fluff had melted on south-facing hills and I was devastated. I was not expecting it to melt!! 😂

Then I lived in WV later in my childhood where we got frequent upslope enhanced snow showers with intermittent sunshine in between and the sun would frequently exterminate our dusting / coating of snow before the next snow shower. I think you're better off with a 50-degree cloudy day than a day that tops out at 30 with full sunshine at this point.
 
I did take more pics/video, but I think this is a good summary overall:






I think I'd do this again while I still have some energy/life in me, but it'll have to be circumstances that fit, as if it was a little colder while I was out driving, I may have just turned around. Not worth it risk wise.
 
1613z RDU sounding shows the wet bulb zero height has crept down to ~900mb/~1900 feet above ground, which is close to the HRRR 2 hour forecast for 18z.

Need the melting snow aloft to drill down thru another 400 feet or so of the near surface warm layer to get some rain/snow mix over the Triangle area.

That also lines up with the elevation differences between Raleigh (315 feet) & Randleman (715 feet), where it's starting to changeover to snow or a mix.

RDU Sounding Jan 18 2026 1613z.png

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