First possible board wide threat in forever or nah? In other words, do we RAGE or do we ditch Mitch?
Let'er rip and reel it in!
Let'er rip and reel it in!
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
It's going to snow.
Slowing is fine, but don't want to see + tilt trend continue
Good luck everybody!
Good luck everybody!
Ok Met. I’m gonna trust you on this one
Back the truck up
Back the truck up
2” for clt is the new 10”. Will be dancing in the street if we get it.
I do like that we have solid cold air in place, much better than sweating over thermals. Would rather be cheering for qpf 2-3 days out.
I think the base is fine where it’s at. Now we’ve got to get it neutral where it’s at. Then we eat
tractor girl
Member
Happy hunting everyone 
going to be a drier EPS run, especially for further west folks
Snowflowxxl
Member
How much for my backyard? Will I have enough time to drive the mistress home before the ice covers the roads? Wife gets in at 12 Sunday.
Better than 0z, worse than 6z snow mean wise. h5 trend:
CJ back on board again 
Oconeexman
Member
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2017
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- 1,348
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- 3,495
Im with ya on the positive tilt continuing to worse. Could screw this whole thing up.
rburrel2
Member
I’m gonna say the euro is wrong with giving Tybee island, ga their 2nd 2+ inch event in the last two years. Especially when the ai models are raining on almost everybody.
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
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- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
idk man i cant ever remember the GFS defeating the euro at this time out
Footprint still there. Anyone on the northern fringe should be tickled pink with this look at 100 hours out.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Last year it performed just as well on the big coastal right until 24 hours
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
We have had this convo. AI models perform too warm on the surface
rburrel2
Member
That’s fine but it’s not just that. They both have way higher heights out ahead of the storm and much warmer mid levels as a result.
I think if you take the ai models higher heights along the eastern coast and combine that with the better digging vort on the gfs/euro/ukmet… you get a massive overrunning storm. That’s the hope for me, but that would put some people on the rainy side of things.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's because the UK temps are very iffy. I looked and I think with this case outside of the coast, the bugaboo is temps are in the upper 30's.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Look I like how much people get into this with studying every detail, but worrying about temperatures at this range is not what you should be focusing on. Evolution of the storm first, then worry about the other things.
SnowNiner
Member
Agree that tilt likely won't do it for the piedmont. It's backed/stretched west, and west, and west, into nothing.
Day 3 out last year for the 1/21 event the Euro was clocking central NC and was too far west. And of course we remember all those super bombs that the CMC kept spitting out which was dead wrong. It's why I like seeing these weaker model runs at day 4, not get our hopes crushed like last year.
And the Euro AI was east/supressed at this range for last years event.
And the Euro AI was east/supressed at this range for last years event.
rburrel2
Member
To further discuss this… the ai models are way faster with the storm as a result of a less digging wave.
Going with the trend, I expect them to keep correcting slower and diggier. The question is: are they going to adjust the height field out ahead of the storm any? I’d be shocked if they start to lower heights/weaken the Atlantic ridging.
I think what’s more likely is they hold on to the stronger ridging out front… but keep trending slower/diggier with the wave… which would mean a more robust and neutral tilt prone wave as it advances east.
On the flip side, I think you’ll see the euro increase ridging out front to match the ai models, but hold more steady with the wave..
If all that comes to fruition we should have a sold board wide overrunning set up.
Going with the trend, I expect them to keep correcting slower and diggier. The question is: are they going to adjust the height field out ahead of the storm any? I’d be shocked if they start to lower heights/weaken the Atlantic ridging.
I think what’s more likely is they hold on to the stronger ridging out front… but keep trending slower/diggier with the wave… which would mean a more robust and neutral tilt prone wave as it advances east.
On the flip side, I think you’ll see the euro increase ridging out front to match the ai models, but hold more steady with the wave..
If all that comes to fruition we should have a sold board wide overrunning set up.
tractor girl
Member
He leans heavily towards UK in his analysis, but seems open to the idea that things are shifting
rburrel2
Member
Just a tiny bit more ridging here and we dance in the streets.
Still quiet the spread, which just further shows there is a lot to sort out here.
rburrel2
Member
Compare that image with the euro ai… look how much higher heights are in the northeast!
mydoortotheworld
Member
Final total map of GA 1/21 for that storm for comparison. It was too far NW with the northern edge of precip, dry air was too much if I remember correctly
Tsappfrog20
Member
tractor girl
Member
I live near the upper portions of the precip last year, the flakes were small and wispy. Still managed to get 2 in, but it did not last long