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Pattern Jammin January 2024

BHS1975 said:
How? The source region is torched.


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Scroll through that run of the GFS looking at actual 2m temps. 99% of Canada never goes above freezing during that whole run. Just because warm anamolies are showing up there doesn’t mean that it’s warm. Still lots snowpack and they’ll be continuing to build it. Also if you notice when that wedge is showing, one of the coldest regions on the continent is east and southeast Canada…temperatures 25-35 degrees below zero and that’s the airmass that CAD high is tapping into. I haven’t looked at the 18z GEFS but it wouldn’t shock me to see some ice storms showing in the individual members
 
cyclogent said:
Not a bad signal 9 days out for the CAD crew.

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This is exactly what I meant earlier that after the definite torch we get for a few days after Monday, the pattern may not become perfect but it’s far from definite shut out either. As long as that PV is set up in eastern Canada it at least keeps cold air close by.
 
I you have been tracking the wave storm the past few days you can see the trend, it is slowly moving east with the higher totals. Good to see.
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Chazwin said:
Scroll through that run of the GFS looking at actual 2m temps. 99% of Canada never goes above freezing during that whole run. Just because warm anamolies are showing up there doesn’t mean that it’s warm. Still lots snowpack and they’ll be continuing to build it. Also if you notice when that wedge is showing, one of the coldest regions on the continent is east and southeast Canada…temperatures 25-35 degrees below zero and that’s the airmass that CAD high is tapping into. I haven’t looked at the 18z GEFS but it wouldn’t shock me to see some ice storms showing in the individual members
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1706918400-dKb84oT5tzE.png
Asking to lower heights over the NE and northern Atlantic while we hold the EC ridge is not really some big ask at all. It's a very workable scenario. Source region is still cold even with above average anomalies and as posted above we are still dropping snow off in the NE and Eastern Canada. Easily could trend our way into a nice overrunning/CAD type of system around the first of the year. We can still get wintry weather even when the 500mb setup looks trash, specifically here east of the apps because it's easier to get CAD setups in that type of pattern.
 
iGRXY said:
1706918400-dKb84oT5tzE.png
Asking to lower heights over the NE and northern Atlantic while we hold the EC ridge is not really some big ask at all. It's a very workable scenario. Source region is still cold even with above average anomalies and as posted above we are still dropping snow off in the NE and Eastern Canada. Easily could trend our way into a nice overrunning/CAD type of system around the first of the year. We can still get wintry weather even when the 500mb setup looks trash, specifically here east of the apps because it's easier to get CAD setups in that type of pattern.
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You’re right, but I will say that any wintry weather would be more likely to be sleet/ice perhaps mixed with snow this far south. This look actually has some similarities to February 2003.
 
Snow pack lost a few inches yesterday but still have about 4 inches. Snow showers have been falling off and on since 5AM. Outside of 2-3 years The Winters have been absolutely incredible here Since 2015. At some point it will shift and those who have missed out will get theirs. The First 8 years I lived here I remember many heartbreaks and near misses Watching places 200 miles south of me get 8-10 inch paste bombs.
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