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Tropical Hurricane Ida

Snowfan

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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I know this is not a invest but I think it should be because the models have been making a lot of noise about this system. Mods can change the title if they want.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave
currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low
if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Click to expand...
 
lexxnchloe said:
What is that over Hispaniola?
Click to expand...

High mountains in combo with the pressure over them not being accurately converted to SLP. They go up to being about 8 mb off. I’d ignore it.

Keep in mind that those maps have isobars that are at only one mb increments.

Edit: You can see more of that in Central America over their mountains, too.
 
I think a strong TC in the Gulf of Mexico has always been a real good possibility, and I’ve heard the TWC highlight the threat for the last few days. The 18z GFS solution is just diabolical, but it’s definitely a serious solution in which the 99L quickly takes advantage of optimal synoptic conditions (presented on a majority of models). I think the near-term pattern of lighter wind shear over the northern lobe needs to be monitored, in light of the similar possibilities we saw with Grace. I had an early interest in Grace cause I thought it could make it to Category 5 if it had taken a northerly track. We saw how quickly Grace came together after landfall despite some wind shear. If the northern lobe of 99L can quickly develop and trek N and NE of the Yucatan, it will have an even greater opportunity to reach Category 5 by playing around in bath water for a longer period of time.
 
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