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Tropical Invest 96L

NHC lowering 5 day development chances to 50%

An elongated low pressure system located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form well east of the Lesser Antilles by
early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by Tuesday and Wednesday as the system approaches the
Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
More good news. Chances down to 40%:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser
Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
 
GaWx said:
More good news. Chances down to 40%:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser
Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
Click to expand...
Interesting how they cover their bases...."its possible...but its not".
 
I’ve been watching IR for a while and it only seem to be firing up
 
Also looking at the spaghetti models it looks to have more that take it to a cat 1 and tropical storm
 
5 day chances of development have decreased to 30%.


An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Only gradual
development of this system is expected for the next few days while
it moves west-northwestward across the northern Lesser Antilles.
Subsequently, some slight additional development is possible by the
middle of next week while the disturbance moves northwestward, north
of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 
Probably looks better due to less suppression from the CCKW, looks elongated from the last time I saw it
 
Now down to 20% chance of development.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next
day or two as the disturbance moves west-northwestward toward the
northern Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are then expected to
become unfavorable for further development early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
96 L is looking a bit more organized today. But, per the weak low that the model consensus has shown for a number of days forming just east of the Lesser Antilles, this isn’t a surprise. The only thing that is a surprise to me is it appears to be moving WNW quite a bit faster than model consensus from a couple of days ago had been suggesting.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
96 L is looking a bit more organized today. But, per the weak low that the model consensus has shown for a number of days forming just east of the Lesser Antilles, this isn’t a surprise. The only thing that is a surprise to me is it appears to be moving WNW quite a bit faster than model consensus from a couple of days ago had been suggesting.
Click to expand...
I understand this may not be nothing at all as models show, but could organization take place and have a chance at something? I notice few models wants to try something with it but not there yet.
 
accu35 said:
I understand this may not be nothing at all as models show, but could organization take place and have a chance at something? I notice few models wants to try something with it but not there yet.
Click to expand...

Even if it becomes a TD, I believe there is strong shear in its path.

Edit: Just in. 0% chances for development per latest TWO.
 
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