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Tropical Invest 92L

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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Jan 5, 2017
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Location
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It just got designated this morning.
3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this
morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or
north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. This system is producing persistent
shower and thunderstorm activity but does not have a well-defined
surface center. Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible during the next few days and a tropical depression could
form while it moves slowly northward. Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
 
A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south of
Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of
days while the system moves northward, and a tropical depression
could form by Thursday. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of
heavy rainfall are likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure,
located several hundred miles south of Bermuda were showing some
signs of organization. Development of this disturbance is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves northward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Periods of
heavy rainfall are likely to impact Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
A small area of low pressure, located just east of Bermuda, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development
of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could
form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves
northeastward away from Bermuda. Afterward, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of
Bermuda has become a little better defined today, but the
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Further development
of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could
form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves
northeastward away from Bermuda. By Saturday, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percen
 
A small area of low pressure located about 200 miles northeast of
Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms well to the southeast
of the center. Only a small decrease in the upper level winds could
result in the formation of a tropical depression in the next day or
so. However, by Saturday upper-level winds are forecast to increase
even further, making conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Not expected to develop any further.
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast
of Bermuda is producing limited showers and thunderstorms, well to
the southeast of the center. Significant development of this system
is not anticipated while it moves northeastward across the central
north Atlantic due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast
of Bermuda is producing limited showers and thunderstorms, well to
the southeast of the center. This system has become poorly defined
and significant development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
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