ForsythSnow
Moderator
All the models have some form of something and I doubt it's as weak as the Euro is showing, but not as strong as the GFS has it.
This is going to be a front loaded season anyway, with El Niño coming on. Get em why you can! I don’t think we make it to the “J”, the whole season, even if we get “B” storm next week and a quick start to the season, IMOHow many more tropical systems do you all want before we get into the meat of the season in August?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121736
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea just to the east of Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras is associated with a sharp surface trough. This area of
disturbed weather is forecast to move westward to northwestward over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days, and little development is expected during that time due to
strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become slightly more conducive for some development when the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart