Tropical TS Julia

[Henry2326]

 

[accu35]

View attachment 122750View attachment 122751View attachment 122752

You think this could end up in the gulf? Even if it’s weak?

 

[Arcc]

You think this could end up in the gulf? Even if it’s weak?

Definitely the season with the deep troughs that continue to dig.

 

[Henry2326]

You think this could end up in the gulf? Even if it’s weak?

IMO....depends on position of the H. If it gets some room, maybe.
12z Euro not giving it any room.....but we know how this goes....back and forth.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

2. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands. Further development of the wave
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph,
reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

[Taylor C]

The area of interest is getting more organized.

 

[Taylor C]

 

[Taylor C]

Looks like gradual development to the Lesser Antilles and then more substantial strengthening when in the Caribbean.

 

[Henry2326]

TVCN has some lift to it.

 

[accu35]

Idk, looks like trough after trough. Texas or Mexico would probably be the area it will go.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Idk, looks like trough after trough. Texas or Mexico would probably be the area it will go.

Going west into Central America or south Mexico. Can’t go north.

 

[DTB247]

Going west into Central America or south Mexico. Can’t go north.

Why is this? I would think trough after trough could have to potential to bring it north if one of them dips down to the Gulf, no?

 

[Henry2326]

12z GFS.....this is concerning.

And it ends up in the second pic....
Not a good look.

 

[DadOfJax]

12z GFS.....this is concerning.

View attachment 122771

That’s definitely a look the Southeast can work with

 

[Henry2326]

12z ICON

 

[NoSnowATL]

Why is this? I would think trough after trough could have to potential to bring it north if one of them dips down to the Gulf, no?

Per TWC this morning from Jim Cantore this storm won’t hit the gulf. Just repeating what I heard.

 

[SD]

Why is this? I would think trough after trough could have to potential to bring it north if one of them dips down to the Gulf, no?

It's not as clear as it was with Ian. This time we have a flatter more west extended subtropical ridge under the rounds of EC troughs. In a general sense that's going to bias the track W toward C America before it gets much of a notth component. That said there will likely be small weaknesses in the ridge for a stronger system to find and leak northward where it might feel the troughs.

 

[Arcc]

Per TWC this morning from Jim Cantore this storm won’t hit the gulf. Just repeating what I heard.

Well it’s gonna hit the gulf. Then If JB says it’s only gonna be a TS you can mark down a Cat 5.

 

[Shaggy]

It's not as clear as it was with Ian. This time we have a flatter more west extended subtropical ridge under the rounds of EC troughs. In a general sense that's going to bias the track W toward C America before it gets much of a notth component. That said there will likely be small weaknesses in the ridge for a stronger system to find and leak northward where it might feel the troughs.

Gefs doesn't clear it up much either