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Tropical Hurricane Nate

11pm update is a little weaker
8c4e4df7b173df7b864deb8f40ada2b5.jpg


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00z gfs is a great scenario. Very very weak system that brings rain to many

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Not sure what the hell the 00z CMC just did. Somehow it managed to take a system through central Mississippi but it's weak as hell also like the gfs

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UKMET almost hits New Orleans!!! and goes into MS as a low end hurricane probably, big west shift

0000UTC 08.10.2017 72 29.5N 89.8W 982 57
1200UTC 08.10.2017 84 31.9N 88.3W 992 23
 
Brent said:
UKMET almost hits New Orleans!!! and goes into MS as a low end hurricane probably, big west shift

0000UTC 08.10.2017 72 29.5N 89.8W 982 57
1200UTC 08.10.2017 84 31.9N 88.3W 992 23
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Ukie seems very jumpy lately

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So as fate would have it, I flew to Texas for a business trip to start the week. As I flew over Houston on Monday, I noticed some of the canals still are pretty full of water from Harvey.

I got an alert on my phone Wednesday afternoon as I was heading to the airport to head home, from a TV station from Atlanta, highlighting the potential for tropical impacts here early next week.

Haven't dove into the model data yet -- I've been home for just a couple of hours and been preoccupied with playoff baseball and laundry -- but history says for those of us in North Georgia, a robust tropical system that landfalls in the Florida panhandle/Alabama coast and moves northward spells bad weather up here.

Irma really was an outlier, a system that moves from SE Ga/NE Fla to the northwest. More often, my area gets hammered by systems that come ashore from Biloxi-Pensacola and race northward through Mississippi/Alabama, putting us north and east of the center of circulation.

Even without diving into the potential metrics of this system, those in North Georgia have to watch this. A Cat 1 that landfalls at, say, Mobile Bay and works NNE, would put a good bit of N Georgia into the area where there could be rain and wind impacts.

I really hope this does not develop into a powerful system. Let's watch it and pay attention, and plan accordingly.

--30--
 
Euro is about 30 mb weaker too, probably not even a hurricane or just barely coming ashore south of New Orleans

Screenshot_2017-10-05-01-23-06.png
 
Appears going to be fighting some drier air and light shear once into the GOM and pretty good deal of land interaction which could keep this a minimal hurricane which is just fine with me... Side not the area the path is right now is an area known for some pretty good storms in the past really ramping up intensity wise so that is a possible fly in the ointment here.... Stay tuned


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Well let's just get a rainmaker on this one and call it a day. Can we do that? Lol land and speed is going to be a big factor as well. It def could go that far west. Sounds like a messy and weak storm is very much on the table
 
deltadog03 said:
Well let's just get a rainmaker on this one and call it a day. Can we do that? Lol land and speed is going to be a big factor as well. It def could go that far west. Sounds like a messy and weak storm is very much on the table
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Yeah I don't see this getting to anything above a cat 1 IF that

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GaWx said:
As I assume you've noticed, the key is that the gfs is developing a surface low from the system now near the FL Straits and the Euro isn't. This leads to a weaker system hitting LA instead of a stronger storm further east. Who is right? Some people think a low is forming. Others don't. But if it does form, it may ultimately save the NE GOM coast from a big hit kind of like when Jose saved the SE US from Maria,
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Bump from yesterday
 
GaWx said:
As I assume you've noticed, the key is that the gfs is developing a surface low from the system now near the FL Straits and the Euro isn't. This leads to a weaker system hitting LA instead of a stronger storm further east. Who is right? Some people think a low is forming. Others don't. But if it does form, it may ultimately save the NE GOM coast from a big hit kind of like when Jose saved the SE US from Maria,
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Further to this post from yesterday evening, note that there is more of an entity near the Keys than what the older Euro runs have been showing. In contrast, the newest Euro has something and Nate not coincidentally goes much further west and is weaker.
 
^New advisory has 5 mb lower SLP (999 vs 1004) and it has moved much more n than w (.from 13.3N, 83,3W to 13.9N, 83.4W). Is movement more NNW now?
 
1. We'll need to see if it shifts back to a more NW movement, which some models hint at. In the meantime, it is at 13.9N, 83.4W as of 8 AM. That is technically only right at the coast per this map:

http://go.grolier.com/map?id=mgam027&pid=go

From this point, will he turn more inland or will he just skirt the coast? The furthest east Nic. and Hond go is only 83.3W. If he moves NNW from here, he would just skirt the coast.

2. The 6Z GFS had it only down to 1002 mb as of 8AM while the Euro had 1003 and the CMC 1004. Is it of much significance that the main models are too weak by 3-5 mb?
 
GaWx said:
1. We'll need to see if it shifts back to a more NW movement, which some models hint at. In the meantime, it is at 13.9N, 83.4W as of 8 AM. That is technically only right at the coast per this map:

http://go.grolier.com/map?id=mgam027&pid=go

From this point, will he turn more inland or will he just skirt the coast? The furthest east Nic. and Hond go is only 83.3W. If he moves NNW from here, he would just skirt the coast.

2. The 6Z GFS had it only down to 1002 mb as of 8AM while the Euro had 1003 and the CMC 1004. Is it of much significance that the main models are too weak by 3-5 mb?
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That's interesting . Previous Euro runs kept nate well offshore . Clearly with it's its current position those runs were outliers. But if it stays just offshore it makes you wonder about development and fututre track. Will be interesting to see if the NW bend takes shape today as the models are showing

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