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Tropical Hurricane Katia

Storm5

Storm5

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As webber pointed out there are growing signs for some tropical development in the western gulf along an old front early next week
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Lol, Euro has it coasting the gulf coast, then just dancing around.
 
Sometimes models can be a little bullish on spin ups along old frontal boundaries or tend to develop them to quickly...hopefully that is the case here.
 
metwannabe said:
Sometimes models can be a little bullish on spin ups along old frontal boundaries or tend to develop them to quickly...hopefully that is the case here.
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Hopefully it can skip the flood devastated parts of TX and LA , and bring more , much needed raine to the Western Carolinas!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Hopefully it can skip the flood devastated parts of TX and LA , and bring more , much needed raine to the Western Carolinas!
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I see it's been so long since you've seen the droplets from the sky that you reverted back to ye 'ol English spelling.... Lol
 
I'm figuring if anything forms it'll be probably just be a weak rainmaker and exacerbate the flooding probably
 
0z Euro has a trough and the storm is fairly weak moving NE well east of Texas and even past Louisiana towards probably the FL Panhandle at 216
 
It will be interesting as always how things pan out.

Euro has the cold front sweeping up the tropical feature

While the GFS puts the low mandering around the TX coast, which hopefully isn't right. Or, the tropical feature could get us by surprise like Harvey. Never the less, always have to keep an eye out.
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The EPS from last night, looks to still be holding on to that idea of a gulf system. Not good!
 
Arcc said:
Luckily if the GFS is right, it would be going into the shreader before landfall due to the big trough diving down.
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Yeah I don't think it will be a significant landfalling cane but rain could certainly be problematic
 
2pm TWO:


An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Brent said:
2pm TWO:


An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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In other words, "Yeah. We see it. We don't know either. Shrug."

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I look at this potential system as quite possibly helping to protect the SE US from a hit from Irma. So, bring it on!
 
GaWx said:
I look at this potential system as quite possibly helping to protect the SE US from a hit from Irma. So, bring it on!
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Unless of course we get a big storm out of it and it ends up doing a Gulf coast tour, further flooding the coast of Texas and Louisiana, as well as damaging somewhere along it, then we don't want such a storm, but rather none to a depression with a slower trough. If anything, I would think this storm could clear the way for Irma by the way the Euro looks. It's too far out still of course, but I don't want to see Texas flood again anytime soon.
 
Yeah, in that case, it wouldn't be good. Good point. I'd want it to be weak and without giving much rain to TX/LA. Maybe give you, JHS, Mac, and SD some rain?
 
2am TWO

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity and a few
squalls. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains
associated with this disturbance are likely over portions of eastern
Mexico during the remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Katia looking very convective this morning. Crazy that we can have 3 named storms at the same time. We are very close to 2005, but are falling behind by a storm or two.
 
This is just insane. The pressure is 994 already. I am going to make the bold statement I feel we will have her a major or strong 2 before landfall. It has days over that very conductive environment. Not sure about shear, but it looks like little with all that convection.
 
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