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Tropical Major Hurricane Isaias

malak05 said:
A few towers starting to fire up in the SW quadrant we will see where they go
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Watching the IR loop on tropical its pretty evident that its finally getting the effects of the dry air and shear....looks much worse now than just 45 mins ago....lots of warming tops and limited new storm development....also radar looks less scary its weakening just a matter of how much before landfall.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Pressure still falling too. It seems like it's not even weakening despite the IR appearance.
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Could end up where the flight level winds are much higher than what they see at the surface, without the strong storms they wont mix down as well. Had that happen here a few times, Isabel had a pressure here of 955 and we only gusted to 50 with 100 knts a few thousand ft up because the SW eyewall had no storms to get them down. The IR loop certainly doesnt scream strengthening storm....
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Yea it’s trying to do something.




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Not suprising. This happened in Michael, Helene, ect while under SW shear during these long drawn out intensifcation cycles. Wouldn't suprise me to see a little more strength squeezed out before that SW quad finally becomes affected.
 
3-6" looks like a really good bet around my neck of the woods. 6"+ on the southern and eastern slopes. That's been ticking up today. Wind is also becoming more of an issue vs previously thought.
 
Arcc said:
Not suprising. This happened in Michael, Helene, ect while under SW shear during these long drawn out intensifcation cycles. Wouldn't suprise me to see a little more strength squeezed out before that SW quad finally becomes affected.
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Seems to be the norm now for them to not weaken as expected or how they have in the past.
 
Carolina Fever said:
Seems to be the norm now for them to not weaken as expected or how they have in the past.
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I definitely think it will weaken, just not until that convection stops firing and rotating upstream. Its just currently in the best place to maintain or slightly increase in intensity. Eventually the shear will increase to counter act that.
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Definitely looks like it did in fact complete a ERC or at least a Merger under 40kts of shear! I don’t see this weakening much before landfall
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Hopefully that’s not the case as that would be absolutely awful for those impacted.
 
Arcc said:
I definitely think it will weaken, just not until that convection stops firing and rotating upstream. Its just currently in the best place to maintain or slightly increase in intensity. Eventually the shear will increase to counter act that.
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When though?
 
135 knots FL. Wow!

And you can see the western eyewall disruption Levi mentioned clearly. Although satellite imagery shows intense convection refiring, so that may just be a blip.
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