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Hurricane Debby

Holden beach is already damaged at the point on the east end View attachment 149506View attachment 149507

A Childs folly..
funny that (they) just spent several Million(s) on beach renourishment & sand dune rebuilding)
smiley


NOTICE the sediment (Layer), the top was just "laid" ,, renourished this past spring..

We ARE a society that believes that if we throw enough money at a problem that we can fix it.... climate, housing, education, medical, et al...
Sand Castels on shifting sands..
 
New tornado warning from Doppler indicated circ nearing Vernonburg moving NW toward southside of SAV. Rains torrential! Likely have already had >6”!
I've been monitoring the radars from KCHS and your suspicions are correct, in the last few hours, Savannah has radar estimates of 6" just in the last couple hours. Bands keep filling in from the dry slot merging into the PRE.
 
Wilmington is not being shy about this risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Well into the thick of Debby at this point. Constant rain this
period, expected to be extremely heavy most of the time, as deep
Atlantic moisture gets pulled in from Debby spinning just offshore
of South Carolina. This deep moisture, combined with the slow
motion, will yield a widespread flooding rain threat. Flash flooding
is projected to be extreme in some cases, with rainfall amounts of
16-20 inches possible near the coast (8-16 inches possible inland).
If a particular rain band sets up just right, rainfall amounts could
easily exceed these numbers.

Several areas are likely to see road scours, washouts, and/or
complete failures. Flooding into structures in the low-lying areas
are a given. Flood waters are likely to cut some areas off from the
mainland. Over the last day or two, we`ve been using words like
"devastating," "catastrophic," and "life-threatening". These
words still apply. This is an issue everywhere, but especially
for the northeast SC coast. DO NOT drive across flooded areas.
Past events of this caliber have led to flash flood-related
fatalities, mostly because of people driving through flooded
roads. Please don`t do this.

We`ve gotten a lot of calls asking for comparisons of Debby vs.
other storms of the past. It`s not really appropriate to play the
comparison game, because Debby will be historic in its own right.
There is no way for us to know if you and your home will
specifically be part of that negative history. But what we CAN say
is that many lives and homes alike will be upended by this storm.
These kind of widespread impacts we haven`t seen in at least 5
years. PLEASE prepare now. Have fresh water, non-perishable foods,
batteries, meds, and more at the ready. Charge all of your devices.
See ready.gov/hurricanes for more information on what to include. Go
to weather.gov/media/ilm/LatestBriefing.pdf for our latest forecast,
which goes into better detail than what these forecast discussions
give
If the euro and ICON are right this makes sense, if the GFS and 18Z models are right not so much. Wish i could see 48 hours in the future and know where it will be then.
 
Just eye balling it here Deb looks like she’s gonna be off the coast of Georgia in about 4 or 5 hours

The eastern remnant eyewall structure is only 20 miles or so from being over ocean and the center 40 or so...well at least the eastern side of the old center...

Has been on the very eastern edge of the cone all day. The NHC has the center moving offshore tomorrow near Savannah...
 
If the euro and ICON are right this makes sense, if the GFS and 18Z models are right not so much. Wish i could see 48 hours in the future and know where it will be then.
If they’re giving the GFS the same weight as other field offices in the region and the WPC are, they are completely dismissing it.
 
Pretty massive QPF through 48 hours on 18z HRRR. Lot of rain still to go after this.

hrrr-nc-total_precip_inch-3053600.png

It also indicates a large swath of 1-2"hr bands ongoing.

hrrr-nc-precip_1hr_inch-3053600.png

Major flooding is imminent across eastern GA / eastern SC / and much of central and eastern NC.
 
The eastern remnant eyewall structure is only 20 miles or so from being over ocean and the center 40 or so...well at least the eastern side of the old center...

Has been on the very eastern edge of the cone all day. The NHC has the center moving offshore tomorrow near Savannah...
It's a little more than that on the Valdosta radar, but the structure on the Eastern side is holding up extremely well. That Eastern side dumped 15" of rain in a very short time earlier today just after landfall..
FB_IMG_1722897003455.jpg
 
It's a little more than that on the Valdosta radar, but the structure on the Eastern side is holding up extremely well. That Eastern side dumped 15" of rain in a very short time earlier today just after landfall..
View attachment 149517
My question is as that very solid eastern core should be over water soon if it helps tug the center with it and gets it offshore faster
 
I was looking at the model runs and the ICON has Debby as a 964mb hurricane off of Myrtle Beach before making landfall again. That would be a Cat 3 hurricane if that were to verify. Let's hope its out in left field with its estimate of storm strength.
 
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