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Tropical Hurricane Beryl

ForsythSnow

ForsythSnow

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Whatever happened to the other ones, we are now at 95. Looks organized on satellite and at 30/30. Some models develop this into a a tropical storm at least so we may get our B name.
 
This already looks like a TD or minimal TS to me per visible loops.
 
Shower activity has changed little in organization near a small
area of low pressure and tropical wave located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, recent
satellite-derived wind data and visible satellite images suggest
that the system may not have a closed surface wind circulation.
Some development of this system is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Click to expand...
 
May well be wrong, and if so, not the 1st or last time, but the 2 orange areas are facing some unfriendly skies down the road; what's perked interest, although a month early, is west Africa ... we'll see ...

hiatlsat_None_anim-9 (dragged).jpg

Loop is too big to post, but it's got a real nice swirl coming west ...
 
Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for development when the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
2 areas off the SE coast and both have 60% chance of development over the next 5 days
 
pcbjr said:
Dadgumit ... :eek:

Beautiful little thing on radar ...

View attachment 5419

I think we have Beryl ...

Good lesson ... do not rely on me to call storms ... o_O
Click to expand...

Yep, just named with 40 mph winds conservatively. I think they're higher. It actually could become a hurricane before it weakens. What a surprise!
 
Will this be still another Beryl that isn't retired? Beryl goes back to 1982 and this is the 7th one.
 
Well okay then

Already 45 kt on best track 11am peak was 35 kt
 
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It appears this is/will be the strongest Beryl of the 7 so far since 60 knots is the strongest of the prior 6.

Edited
 
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I saw cat 1 hurricane as the forecast at 5 pm update.
 
not the best models but the ICON, CMC, and NAVGEM have Beryl around in the Bahamas :weenie:
 
Forecast has it to 85 MPH by Friday night! Beryl continues to impress!
 
This storm blew up fast. There seems to be the chance by some models it survives longer than originally expected. I don't trust it too much, but the HMON shows Beryl peaking as a major hurricane. It could very well get that strong since there is an eye developing.

It's also so small. The hurricane wind radius is only 10 miles wide and the TS force winds are only 35. Too bad it's too far to fly in for another 2 days minimum.
 
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Definitely RI per microwave estimates. Looks to be weakening per this but strengthening again per latest satellite imagery as there is new deep convection to the west of the center.
last24hrs.gif
 
The storm degenerated but Beryl is not dead yet
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants
of Beryl is producing locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the northern Leeward
Islands. The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
for the next day or so, passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico today, and over Hispaniola tonight. Unfavorable upper-level
winds and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during
the next day or two, but environmental conditions could become
somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone later this
week when the system is forecast to turn northward over the Bahamas
and the western Atlantic. Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percen
Click to expand...
 
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