Lets use this thread to discuss overall patterns, whether or not we can trust the weeklies, old patterns that worked/ didn't work.
I think he may need that as well.Where's Web? I need a postmortem.
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I've seen some similar analyses done already, but figured I'd throw mine out here so we can all share in the depressing reality that is NC snowfall trends.
First, I present to you annual snowfall from 1944-1984:
View attachment 146706
'44-'84 mean: 7.44"
'44-'84 median: 5.4"
Next, 1984-2024 annual snowfall:
View attachment 146707
'84-2024 mean: 4.96"
'84-2024 median: 1.7"
Now the whole picture:
View attachment 146708
To me the thing that probably sticks out the most is the '84-2024 median of only 1.7". Once you remove the outlier years of 2000 and a couple of others, it becomes readily apparent that our winters have been really paltry for a long time now. We certainly used to get a lot more sleet/freezing rain events that don't even happen now either, but the end result of no snow has been there for a lot longer than I fully realized.
I've actually reached out to my pals at the NC Climate Office to see if they would consider pulling all hourly data where RDU measured precipitation with the temperature at or below freezing. I believe you would see a dramatic decrease in that as we roll forward in time as well. It's not just snow that has dried up - where are all the sleet and freezing rain / glaze events at? All those nuisance winter weather advisories for a glaze of ice in the morning? It's all gone.
I'm honestly starting to wonder if my kids or at least their kids will be telling stories of how it used to snow at all in Raleigh if we continue down this road. I still don't buy that this is all solely the result of climate change, because it's not like we are suddenly getting a lot of sleet events with a narrow 1-2 C warm layer or partial thicknesses are 1310 m and we are just a degree or two away from frozen precipitation. We aren't even in the ball game anymore. Who knows what the next 40 years of this graph will look like - will we snap back upwards or continue to trend to almost nothing? The 1930s and 40s probably were pretty similar in regards to snowfall to what we're experiencing now over the past 20 years, so who knows.
I've seen some similar analyses done already, but figured I'd throw mine out here so we can all share in the depressing reality that is NC snowfall trends.
First, I present to you annual snowfall from 1944-1984:
View attachment 146706
'44-'84 mean: 7.44"
'44-'84 median: 5.4"
Next, 1984-2024 annual snowfall:
View attachment 146707
'84-2024 mean: 4.96"
'84-2024 median: 1.7"
Now the whole picture:
View attachment 146708
To me the thing that probably sticks out the most is the '84-2024 median of only 1.7". Once you remove the outlier years of 2000 and a couple of others, it becomes readily apparent that our winters have been really paltry for a long time now. We certainly used to get a lot more sleet/freezing rain events that don't even happen now either, but the end result of no snow has been there for a lot longer than I fully realized.
I've actually reached out to my pals at the NC Climate Office to see if they would consider pulling all hourly data where RDU measured precipitation with the temperature at or below freezing. I believe you would see a dramatic decrease in that as we roll forward in time as well. It's not just snow that has dried up - where are all the sleet and freezing rain / glaze events at? All those nuisance winter weather advisories for a glaze of ice in the morning? It's all gone.
I'm honestly starting to wonder if my kids or at least their kids will be telling stories of how it used to snow at all in Raleigh if we continue down this road. I still don't buy that this is all solely the result of climate change, because it's not like we are suddenly getting a lot of sleet events with a narrow 1-2 C warm layer or partial thicknesses are 1310 m and we are just a degree or two away from frozen precipitation. We aren't even in the ball game anymore. Who knows what the next 40 years of this graph will look like - will we snap back upwards or continue to trend to almost nothing? The 1930s and 40s probably were pretty similar in regards to snowfall to what we're experiencing now over the past 20 years, so who knows.
I've seen some similar analyses done already, but figured I'd throw mine out here so we can all share in the depressing reality that is NC snowfall trends.
First, I present to you annual snowfall from 1944-1984:
View attachment 146706
'44-'84 mean: 7.44"
'44-'84 median: 5.4"
Next, 1984-2024 annual snowfall:
View attachment 146707
'84-2024 mean: 4.96"
'84-2024 median: 1.7"
Now the whole picture:
View attachment 146708
To me the thing that probably sticks out the most is the '84-2024 median of only 1.7". Once you remove the outlier years of 2000 and a couple of others, it becomes readily apparent that our winters have been really paltry for a long time now. We certainly used to get a lot more sleet/freezing rain events that don't even happen now either, but the end result of no snow has been there for a lot longer than I fully realized.
I've actually reached out to my pals at the NC Climate Office to see if they would consider pulling all hourly data where RDU measured precipitation with the temperature at or below freezing. I believe you would see a dramatic decrease in that as we roll forward in time as well. It's not just snow that has dried up - where are all the sleet and freezing rain / glaze events at? All those nuisance winter weather advisories for a glaze of ice in the morning? It's all gone.
I'm honestly starting to wonder if my kids or at least their kids will be telling stories of how it used to snow at all in Raleigh if we continue down this road. I still don't buy that this is all solely the result of climate change, because it's not like we are suddenly getting a lot of sleet events with a narrow 1-2 C warm layer or partial thicknesses are 1310 m and we are just a degree or two away from frozen precipitation. We aren't even in the ball game anymore. Who knows what the next 40 years of this graph will look like - will we snap back upwards or continue to trend to almost nothing? The 1930s and 40s probably were pretty similar in regards to snowfall to what we're experiencing now over the past 20 years, so who knows.
Wow, that is honestly startling to me. I think you are definitely onto something here. I believe you said you've already tried to correlate this with AMO and maybe PDO also? Those are my first (obvious) thoughts but just at a quick glance it appears if there is a correlation, it is with some sort of lag.View attachment 146711View attachment 146712
That +height anom in the pacific coupled with a generally +nao is a menace. I can't put my finger on it unless it has to do with less high latitude blocking on average, the strat pv gradually becoming less apt to break down early, that residual warm SAT tongue that seems to be never ending from Japan to the aleutians now
I actually was just speaking to the NC climate office this morning and they found (unsurprisingly) similar trends statewide. I don't want to share their research without permission, but I can tell you they plotted rolling average annual snowfall for Asheville from 1995-2024 and it went from ~15" to ~10", Greensboro from ~11" to ~7.5", Wilmington from ~2.5" to <1", Charlotte from ~7.75" to ~3.75". However, they also agreed with me that this is more than just climate change. @SD is onto something with the large scale pattern shift. Folks don't want to acknowledge it, but the NAO has historically been a monumental driver of winter weather in the eastern US, especially NC. The absence of that combined with the N PAC ridge is a death knell to winter weather chances.Does the fact the Triangle has now become more of a heat island have anything to do with these declining averages? I mean these measurements were taken at RDU. How about the rural areas just outside the metro? If they are reflective (more or less) equally or maybe even the mountain/foothills in this avg. decline then the dreaded cc acronym might be part of the issue
Great analysis. The recent 40yr period is just awful considering the previous 40 for sure and really kills the overall for 80yrs.I've seen some similar analyses done already, but figured I'd throw mine out here so we can all share in the depressing reality that is NC snowfall trends.
First, I present to you annual snowfall from 1944-1984:
View attachment 146706
'44-'84 mean: 7.44"
'44-'84 median: 5.4"
Next, 1984-2024 annual snowfall:
View attachment 146707
'84-2024 mean: 4.96"
'84-2024 median: 1.7"
Now the whole picture:
View attachment 146708
To me the thing that probably sticks out the most is the '84-2024 median of only 1.7". Once you remove the outlier years of 2000 and a couple of others, it becomes readily apparent that our winters have been really paltry for a long time now. We certainly used to get a lot more sleet/freezing rain events that don't even happen now either, but the end result of no snow has been there for a lot longer than I fully realized.
I've actually reached out to my pals at the NC Climate Office to see if they would consider pulling all hourly data where RDU measured precipitation with the temperature at or below freezing. I believe you would see a dramatic decrease in that as we roll forward in time as well. It's not just snow that has dried up - where are all the sleet and freezing rain / glaze events at? All those nuisance winter weather advisories for a glaze of ice in the morning? It's all gone.
I'm honestly starting to wonder if my kids or at least their kids will be telling stories of how it used to snow at all in Raleigh if we continue down this road. I still don't buy that this is all solely the result of climate change, because it's not like we are suddenly getting a lot of sleet events with a narrow 1-2 C warm layer or partial thicknesses are 1310 m and we are just a degree or two away from frozen precipitation. We aren't even in the ball game anymore. Who knows what the next 40 years of this graph will look like - will we snap back upwards or continue to trend to almost nothing? The 1930s and 40s probably were pretty similar in regards to snowfall to what we're experiencing now over the past 20 years, so who knows.
Good question and just for clarification I didn't throw out any data haha. What I was trying to say is that the median value removes the outliers by focusing on the center of the dataset, so naturally it ignores the extremes on both ends. So it actually is already doing what you ask - ignoring the upper and lower extremes. It's really a sobering fact to consider when you think about the shift in the median from 5.4" to 1.7" at RDU, and just goes to prove that my parents weren't kidding when they said it snowed more when they were young around here.Great analysis. The recent 40yr period is just awful considering the previous 40 for sure and really kills the overall for 80yrs.
Quick question--If you are going to throw out the two anomalous heavy snowfall years then shouldn't you also throw out the 2 least snowfall years as well. Isn't that the proper way to deal with outliers in averaging
I used to think the super nino in the late 90s was what flipped every thing but it seems like it started before that.I actually was just speaking to the NC climate office this morning and they found (unsurprisingly) similar trends statewide. I don't want to share their research without permission, but I can tell you they plotted rolling average annual snowfall for Asheville from 1995-2024 and it went from ~15" to ~10", Greensboro from ~11" to ~7.5", Wilmington from ~2.5" to <1", Charlotte from ~7.75" to ~3.75". However, they also agreed with me that this is more than just climate change. @SD is onto something with the large scale pattern shift. Folks don't want to acknowledge it, but the NAO has historically been a monumental driver of winter weather in the eastern US, especially NC. The absence of that combined with the N PAC ridge is a death knell to winter weather chances.
Again, and the SCO agrees with me here, if we were seeing a lot of cold rain events in the 30s or suddenly we were seeing multiple sleet or freezing rain events instead of snow events with a small, consistent warm nose, then perhaps you look at warming temps. But this is a large scale, seasonal winter patten shift.
It's possible when we look back in 40 more years we flip back - Greenland has already shown a significant increased tendency for blocking the past few winters, maybe we turn it on with the TPV getting further east in winters to come. I don't think anyone truthfully has any idea. If they did, I'm pretty sure everyone's forecasts wouldn't have ended up in the same place as mine this February (dumpster fire).
I have suggested that while generally warmer temps probably aren't helping us in the snow department, the impact that climate change is having is, in fact, on the larger scale - that it is influencing something that creates a large scale environment that is unfavorable to supporting a -NAO and troughing in the east. But I don't know if that holds water or not.I actually was just speaking to the NC climate office this morning and they found (unsurprisingly) similar trends statewide. I don't want to share their research without permission, but I can tell you they plotted rolling average annual snowfall for Asheville from 1995-2024 and it went from ~15" to ~10", Greensboro from ~11" to ~7.5", Wilmington from ~2.5" to <1", Charlotte from ~7.75" to ~3.75". However, they also agreed with me that this is more than just climate change. @SD is onto something with the large scale pattern shift. Folks don't want to acknowledge it, but the NAO has historically been a monumental driver of winter weather in the eastern US, especially NC. The absence of that combined with the N PAC ridge is a death knell to winter weather chances.
Again, and the SCO agrees with me here, if we were seeing a lot of cold rain events in the 30s or suddenly we were seeing multiple sleet or freezing rain events instead of snow events with a small, consistent warm nose, then perhaps you look at warming temps. But this is a large scale, seasonal winter patten shift.
It's possible when we look back in 40 more years we flip back - Greenland has already shown a significant increased tendency for blocking the past few winters, maybe we turn it on with the TPV getting further east in winters to come. I don't think anyone truthfully has any idea. If they did, I'm pretty sure everyone's forecasts wouldn't have ended up in the same place as mine this February (dumpster fire).
I don't think I do. If work ever cuts me a break I may try to dig into this more. The SCO has asked me to help them with some winter weather material they are working on for updated web pages, so I may use some "professional development" time to perform some research haha.I used to think the super nino in the late 90s was what flipped every thing but it seems like it started before that.
Do you know if any sites that have SST anomaly maps from the 50s-80s? I'd be curious to know what that -pdo looked like.
I mean we have legitimate concerns about where our snow is going I think it checks out lolI don't think I do. If work ever cuts me a break I may try to dig into this more. The SCO has asked me to help them with some winter weather material they are working on for updated web pages, so I may use some "professional development" time to perform some research haha.
I'm not a climate change extremist by any stretch, but I am on the front lines of screaming that no one, if they are being honest, fully knows the impacts on any of the scales (micro, meso, synoptic, global) it will have. Perhaps there has been a coupling that has resulted in this shift, perhaps it helps explains some of the changes observed in NWP evolution of events, or perhaps it's none of those.I have suggested that while generally warmer temps probably aren't helping us in the snow department, the impact that climate change is having is, in fact, on the larger scale - that it is influencing something that creates a large scale environment that is unfavorable to supporting a -NAO and troughing in the east. But I don't know if that holds water or not.
Whatever is going on is blitzing us with -PNAs and seems to make it impossible to end up with temps below normal during the winter season, which obviously makes winter weather more difficult.
I have suggested that while generally warmer temps probably aren't helping us in the snow department, the impact that climate change is having is, in fact, on the larger scale - that it is influencing something that creates a large scale environment that is unfavorable to supporting a -NAO and troughing in the east. But I don't know if that holds water or not.
Whatever is going on is blitzing us with -PNAs and seems to make it impossible to end up with temps below normal during the winter season, which obviously makes winter weather more difficult.
I know I've said this many times before and speaking of getting clowned, I usually do for saying it or questioning it. Anyway, could it simply be cyclical? I mean the amazing data sets that the SCO and you guys/gals are studying are really from the last what 100 years or so, most much less time than that. Is there truly a way to know if what we are experiencing now did or did not occur hundreds even thousands of years ago?I'm not a climate change extremist by any stretch, but I am on the front lines of screaming that no one, if they are being honest, fully knows the impacts on any of the scales (micro, meso, synoptic, global) it will have. Perhaps there has been a coupling that has resulted in this shift, perhaps it helps explains some of the changes observed in NWP evolution of events, or perhaps it's none of those.
I'll draw lots of clown emojis for this one (and probably deservedly so), but there was a time from when I was in grad school up until about 2021 where I had supreme confidence in my own personal winter pattern recognition forecasting. I could only recall maybe 2-3 events in 10+ years I felt I had really, totally whiffed on correctly picking out for our area (i.e. as legitimate or not legitimate) in the D7-D10 range, and since then, I think I've whiffed on probably six or seven out of eight setups (Jan. 22 being the exception) that I felt with confidence would produce and we've been blanked. My long range confidence in identifying favorable patterns that could produce snow in NC has never been lower. To channel @Brick Tamland, it does feel something has changed and the medium range trends in guidance that used to be stone cold locks don't matter anymore. It's not that the actual patterns that end up verifying are a surprise when they don't produce, it's how they are modeled in the medium range and then evolve or don't evolve are what seems to have changed. Maybe I've become senile in my late 30s, maybe I've lost my fast ball, or maybe something has changed. I don't think I'm the only one who has experienced this though.
I think it could be to some extent, certainly. Obviously a warming background state plus increased urbanization doesn't help matters, but we've seen warm periods before any of that occurred that were followed up by colder, snowier ones, so I feel at some point (despite my negative musings earlier) we will likely transition to a more favorable background state at some point in the future and it's probably only then that we'll know the impacts of the things I just mentioned. Frankly, I don't think it would matter what century we were living in with the background state the way it is now as @SD showed.I know I've said this many times before and speaking of getting clowned, I usually do for saying it or questioning it. Anyway, could it simply be cyclical? I mean the amazing data sets that the SCO and you guys/gals are studying are really from the last what 100 years or so, most much less time than that. Is there truly a way to know if what we are experiencing now did or did not occur hundreds even thousands of years ago?
Only one above normal season for ten years in the 50s.Looking back the 1950s featured a similar pattern to what we have seen over the last few winters. The caveat was the 50s having a west based -nao while the last few were +nao.
Is this cyclical? Idk. But it's good to see history at least this pacific pattern isn't unheard of on a decadal time scale
View attachment 146740
View attachment 146741
Yep so it's not like we haven't been mediocre at best locally on a decadal scale.Only one above normal season for ten years in the 50s.
Absolutely, the 90s were the exact same way. One thing I've noticed is that when we break these spells, they've been broken by a huge winter.Yep so it's not like we haven't been mediocre at best locally on a decadal scale.
2000-2020 ?It seems to me something happened around 1988-89 winter. That winter was ok,but after that its been all down hill. I think we should start looking at changes that happened in the
1980's. That started our downward trend from 1989-1990 winter to present.
Jan 00 to Feb 04 has to be the pinnacle of stretches for anyone born after 1980 around here.2000-2020 ?
Man I feel like that would've been 14-19 for me.Jan 00 to Feb 04 has to be the pinnacle of stretches for anyone born after 1980 around here.
This is great stuff. And we have seen a shift towards Greenland blocking trying to return, we just need the cold vortex to move east again and the N PAC to realign. Who knows, we could have a decade of great winters staring us right in the face and don't even know it.Looking back the 1950s featured a similar pattern to what we have seen over the last few winters. The caveat was the 50s having a west based -nao while the last few were +nao.
Is this cyclical? Idk. But it's good to see history at least this pacific pattern isn't unheard of on a decadal time scale
View attachment 146740
View attachment 146741
Just for fun this was the 60s
View attachment 146742
I'd take that 500mb look for 10 years
Born in 86 and for me, this stretch of winters is the reason I am a meteorologist today.Jan 00 to Feb 04 has to be the pinnacle of stretches for anyone born after 1980 around here.
Like clockwork. The biggest shame is the fruit has had good chilling hours this year so it could ruin a much needed good crop.Not going to lie I'm concerned about the pattern going forward. Warm is the rule through at least the next 20 days but the strat pv is taking a massive hit and it may be undergoing it's final warming. If that happens this WC trough eastern ridge pattern may try to morph into a -nao and increase cold potential in the SE the last 10 days of March indy April. Given that we are likely to see at least some level of green up through mid march this probably isn't going to be great.
You can already see the gefs and geps starting to mess around in the NATL
View attachment 146746
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I saw that you went 1944-1984 and then the last 40 years in your research. I’m just curious what the period from 1904-1944 looked like. I know there’s probably not as much available data, but I would be interested to see how some of the milder periods during that 40 year span effected averages… especially the 1930sI actually was just speaking to the NC climate office this morning and they found (unsurprisingly) similar trends statewide. I don't want to share their research without permission, but I can tell you they plotted rolling average annual snowfall for Asheville from 1995-2024 and it went from ~15" to ~10", Greensboro from ~11" to ~7.5", Wilmington from ~2.5" to <1", Charlotte from ~7.75" to ~3.75". However, they also agreed with me that this is more than just climate change. @SD is onto something with the large scale pattern shift. Folks don't want to acknowledge it, but the NAO has historically been a monumental driver of winter weather in the eastern US, especially NC. The absence of that combined with the N PAC ridge is a death knell to winter weather chances.
Again, and the SCO agrees with me here, if we were seeing a lot of cold rain events in the 30s or suddenly we were seeing multiple sleet or freezing rain events instead of snow events with a small, consistent warm nose, then perhaps you look at warming temps. But this is a large scale, seasonal winter patten shift.
It's possible when we look back in 40 more years we flip back - Greenland has already shown a significant increased tendency for blocking the past few winters, maybe we turn it on with the TPV getting further east in winters to come. I don't think anyone truthfully has any idea. If they did, I'm pretty sure everyone's forecasts wouldn't have ended up in the same place as mine this February (dumpster fire).
I had it saved on my computer already bc priorities but here you go. I changed the M's to .01 to make the autosum easier before someone asks.I saw that you went 1944-1984 and then the last 40 years in your research. I’m just curious what the period from 1904-1944 looked like. I know there’s probably not as much available data, but I would be interested to see how some of the milder periods during that 40 year span effected averages… especially the 1930s