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Misc General Banter Thread

Mitch West said:
Yep.. People will argue "well at least it snowed, it never snows down there" or "you got more than you average a Winter" But in reality, the set up was top tier for us. Just like last years set up was when we only got 0.9 & people South of us scored. CAE don't get many opportunities like this so this one will always leave a sour taste in my mouth.

Glad to hear someone from that area agree.
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no i agree

raleigh at least was primed with disappointment. there were signs they'd be between two sources of lift.

no indication cae would be in the same boat. i think about that dan campbell quote so much...
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you don't get everything to line up like this often so to have the mesoscale stuff not work out sucks

i rode out the storm in wilmington, which got a respectable 5.8 but tough to reason with that when all counties neighboring us got a foot, some an isolated 15-18. same sort of feeling
 
You’re really putting yourself in a bad spot to be disappointed with a 3 inch storm in Columbia.

Verifying on the lower end of guidance isn’t awful when it’s still your biggest snow in over a decade. We know busts happen all the time and you can’t take anything for granted. I’d savor those 3 inches and be happy.

Throw in that the fact Columbia even got snow from a tpv extension is crazy. Especially considering where it dropped down from.everyone should feel blessed this event even happened. We most likely won’t live to see a similar setup materialize.
 
These type setups literally always trend north with the cut off and the fact that this one didn’t is a miracle. Or a clue that the machine models are legit.

But either way, it’s insane how far south it came. And crazy to complain about being on the southern edge of it(while still getting a 10 year snow). You could have just as easily got rugged pull for nothing.

Also, throw in that, materially, what’s the difference between a 20 degree 3 inch powder snow and a 5 inch powder snow? Both are beautiful and impactful, and good enough for snow cream, sledding, snow angels, etc… and both would have mostly melted the next day. Those couple extra inches are really difference between elation or despair for you?
 
rburrel2 said:
You’re really putting yourself in a bad spot to be disappointed with a 3 inch storm in Columbia.

Verifying on the lower end of guidance isn’t awful when it’s still your biggest snow in over a decade. We know busts happen all the time and you can’t take anything for granted. I’d savor those 3 inches and be happy.

Throw in that the fact Columbia even got snow from a tpv extension is crazy. Especially considering where it dropped down from.everyone should feel blessed this event even happened. We most likely won’t live to see a similar setup materialize.
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I don’t agree at all. The reason I don’t agree is listed above pretty clearly. Reckon we will just have to agree to disagree. This ain’t about climo. It’s about this storm & model data leading up to it.
 
rburrel2 said:
These type setups literally always trend north with the cut off and the fact that this one didn’t is a miracle. Or a clue that the machine models are legit.

But either way, it’s insane how far south it came. And crazy to complain about being on the southern edge of it(while still getting a 10 year snow). You could have just as easily got rugged pull for nothing.

Also, throw in that, materially, what’s the difference between a 20 degree 3 inch powder snow and a 5 inch powder snow? Both are beautiful and impactful, and good enough for snow cream, sledding, snow angels, etc… and both would have mostly melted the next day. Those couple extra inches are really difference between elation or despair for you?
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Yeah, there were GFS runs last week threatening to shut me out on this being the solution. It luckily somehow was the outlier, but I was still nervous due to this being an ULL.
 
Mitch West said:
I don’t agree at all. The reason I don’t agree is listed above pretty clearly. Reckon we will just have to agree to disagree. This ain’t about climo. It’s about this storm & model data leading up to it.
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Yea I gotta go with Mitch here Burrel. That’s like being a 8 seed in March and the 16 beats the 1 then you. “Oh well you didn’t play to play next weekend anyway you won a game” Nah, Ceiling is situational dependent jmo. He’s not wrong even NWS went 5-8” down there. That’s why I sort of like how Brad Baby Steps up each event. He was at still at 4-7” Sat AM lol NWS threw out that 8-12” Range up here on like Thursday and by god had I got 6/7” I would’ve been annoyed. Once we saw some of those runs last week being consistent over and over why wouldn’t he have expected it? Data and pros all pointed to a Decade worthy event.


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I’m only saying this stuff bc I care, lol. I’m not trying to be mean.
It’s been a lot better for me since I’ve learned to manage my expectations going in to a storm better. There’s nothing fun about being disappointed with a storm and anything you can do to mitigate that is for the best. Take your most conservative modeled output estimates and cut them in half, plan for the worst case scenario, set your pre-storm minimum expectations such that they are minimum… this is all good stuff to avoid being let down.

Or don’t, shoot for the stars, expect to get hammered and assume the best outcome…and then be disappointed with a 3 inch 20 degree powder snow in Columbia, to each his own.
 
rburrel2 said:
I’m only saying this stuff bc I care, lol. I’m not trying to be mean.
It’s been a lot better for me since I’ve learned to manage my expectations going in to a storm better. There’s nothing fun about being disappointed with a storm and anything you can do to mitigate that is for the best. Take your most conservative modeled output estimates and cut them in half, plan for the worst case scenario, set your pre-storm minimum expectations such that they are minimum… this is all good stuff to avoid being let down.

Or don’t, shoot for the stars, expect to get hammered and assume the best outcome…and then be disappointed with a 3 inch 20 degree powder snow in Columbia, to each his own.
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My expectations have been lowered. That I can agree with.
 
Stevo24 said:
I’m a little sad this year with you guys is wrapping up. Most of us know unless we get lucky this winter is probably a wrap. We finally scored a good one this year and it’s been fun checking in here about every 20 mins since December lol. Hopefully we can score once more but if not it’s been fun.
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Huh? We are basically halfway through winter right now with a month-and-a-half of potential wintry weather ahead. I usually give it through the first couple weeks of March. We can even score in late March, but that’s certainly rare.
 
The way I see it is that if you are somewhere like CAE versus RDU, you have much less reason to complain about seasonal patterns. Getting blanked in a season is normal and it shouldn’t bother someone in CAE like it would someone in RDU. However, on a storm by storm basis, it can still be gutting and in some cases worse because it could literally be a decade before CAE has another shot at 6”. RDU will surely have shots at 6” in the next decade, on the other hand.

I spent a few winters in the Florida panhandle, so I can relate to this on both sides. When I was down there, I simply did not expect anything wintry. In 2018, we miraculously got out under a Winter Storm Warning and got our first accumulating snowfall in Tallahassee in 23 years, all of 0.1” at the airport southwest of town, along with some freezing rain. It was a little gutting since it was thought we may get more than a dusting, and realistically I never expected to see snow fall there again. Of course, they ended up getting 2”+ of sleet with the January 2025 Gulf Coast Blizzard, so so much for that, although even there it might’ve been disappointing given there was the potential for 6”+ of snow if they weren’t just on the wrong side of the snow / sleet boundary. But I’d moved back go NC in 2019, anyways.
 
On an unrelated note, as a wintry weather lover I think I’d rather live somewhere where snow is more or less impossible (peninsular Florida, etc.) than somewhere like CAE. In peninsular Florida, you just basically don’t pay attention to snow and know you have no shot at it, but in somewhere like CAE (and I suppose this applies to a lot of the Deep South, as well), you are far enough north where you have a shot but it’s so rare for those shots to convert into anything good. I think that would drive me mad. But we have plenty of Deep South winter lovers here, so perhaps I would adjust. I know even experiencing that dusting of snow in Tallahassee was more thrilling on some level than a lot of much larger snowfalls up this way, given the novelty and rarity of it. I would’ve given up a lot to experience the Gulf Coast Blizzard in Pensacola or New Orleans, for example.
 
superjames1992 said:
The way I see it is that if you are somewhere like CAE versus RDU, you have much less reason to complain about seasonal patterns. Getting blanked in a season is normal and it shouldn’t bother someone in CAE like it would someone in RDU. However, on a storm by storm basis, it can still be gutting and in some cases worse because it could literally be a decade before CAE has another shot at 6”. RDU will surely have shots at 6” in the next decade, on the other hand.

I spent a few winters in the Florida panhandle, so I can relate to this on both sides. When I was down there, I simply did not expect anything wintry. In 2018, we miraculously got out under a Winter Storm Warning and got our first accumulating snowfall in Tallahassee in 23 years, all of 0.1” at the airport southwest of town, along with some freezing rain. It was a little gutting since it was thought we may get more than a dusting, and realistically I never expected to see snow fall there again. Of course, they ended up getting 2”+ of sleet with the January 2025 Gulf Coast Blizzard, so so much for that, although even there it might’ve been disappointing given there was the potential for 6”+ of snow if they weren’t just on the wrong side of the snow / sleet boundary. But I’d moved back go NC in 2019, anyways.
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Yeh at the end of the day, I just gotta move. I got an 11 & 8 year old girls so I don’t want to rip them out of everything they know. We got a great church also. I love Columbia, but I want to move somewhere that has a little more of a variety weather wise. The goal is somewhere in Haywood county in NC. It’ll happen one day.. maybe sooner than later.
 
superjames1992 said:
Huh? We are basically halfway through winter right now with a month-and-a-half of potential wintry weather ahead. I usually give it through the first couple weeks of March. We can even score in late March, but that’s certainly rare.
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I've never agreed with the idea that winter ends in early February. We have had a stretch of warm Februaries since 2017, but historically February is much snowier than December in the Carolinas. Maybe it's a bit more accurate for the Deep South where late February/early March events are less common, but even the Deep South has scored in March before (like in 1993 and 2009). Late February/early March has seen some big dogs historically in NC. 1960, 1980 and 2004 are just a few examples.

It does appear we are headed for a warmer pattern next week (especially west of the Apps), though there is wedge potential east of the Apps. I doubt it will be cold enough for anything frozen, though. I'd wait another 5 weeks or so before declaring winter "over".
 
Mitch West said:
Yeh at the end of the day, I just gotta move. I got an 11 & 8 year old girls so I don’t want to rip them out of everything they know. We got a great church also. I love Columbia, but I want to move somewhere that has a little more of a variety weather wise. The goal is somewhere in Haywood county in NC. It’ll happen one day.. maybe sooner than later.
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Yeah, I mean also though at the end of the day weather isn’t the most important thing in our lives. If I based my life around weather, I’d probably live in New England or something but we gotta make do with where our lives take us.
 
CyclonicFury said:
I've never agreed with the idea that winter ends in early February. We have had a stretch of warm Februaries since 2017, but historically February is much snowier than December in the Carolinas. Maybe it's a bit more accurate for the Deep South where late February/early March events are less common, but even the Deep South has scored in March before (like in 1993 and 2009). Late February/early March has seen some big dogs historically in NC. 1960, 1980 and 2004 are just a few examples.

It does appear we are headed for a warmer pattern next week (especially west of the Apps), though there is wedge potential east of the Apps. I doubt it will be cold enough for anything frozen, though. I'd wait another 5 weeks or so before declaring winter "over".
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And even in these warm Februaries as of late, two of our biggest recent storms were in the last 10 days of February (though to be fair, these were NC-centric storms). I never understood people punting winter in February. It drives me mad every year, LOL!

As @GaWx’s data has shown, the most favored two week period for a major snowstorm at RDU is the last week of February through the first week of March. I imagine the same holds the for other NC metros, although perhaps not south of there. But like you said, there are exceptions for the Deep South, like March 1983 (and perhaps more insane, RDU saw 1-2” of snow fall and accumulate on April 19, 1983 as well)!

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Good write up about the April 1983 snowfall: https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2016/04/from-snow-cones-to-snow-showers-april-1983s-snow-and-freeze/
 
Since this is banter----We need rain!!! This little crap event tomorrow will probably drop less than a quarter inch. Not enough to fight the drought. Maybe if we can get into a warmer pattern more precip will come. Or better, if were going into an el nino then the pattern should change to wetter.
 
superjames1992 said:
And even in these warm Februaries as of late, two of our biggest recent storms were in the last 10 days of February (though to be fair, these were NC-centric storms). I never understood people punting winter in February. It drives me mad every year, LOL!

As @GaWx’s data has shown, the most favored two week period for a major snowstorm at RDU is the last week of February through the first week of March. I imagine the same holds the for other NC metros, although perhaps not south of there. But like you said, there are exceptions for the Deep South, like March 1983 (and perhaps more insane, RDU saw 1-2” of snow fall and accumulate on April 19, 1983 as well)!

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I usually put the kibosh on winter around the 19th or 20th of March.
 
Unpopular opinion about Tomm…. My snow piles are melting. I’d absolutely LOVE 1” of Snow and a nice sleet and ICE coating on it. Harden it up. Gotta have some sleet and ICE to make it stay around


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FallsLake said:
Since this is banter----We need rain!!! This little crap event tomorrow will probably drop less than a quarter inch. Not enough to fight the drought. Maybe if we can get into a warmer pattern more precip will come. Or better, if were going into an el nino then the pattern should change to wetter.
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Give me all of the above normal precip after April. Seriously wouldn't have any issues with someone saying May through December are all AN with precip
 
ColaSnow said:
I usually put the kibosh on winter around the 19th or 20th of March.
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I agree. Can certainly do earlier if you get to the first week of March and the long range is an extended torch, but you really need to get some days into March before that happens. Like I mentioned, late March / early April can snow, too, but it is sufficiently rare that I feel comfortable “punting” it unless some obvious threat is showing up. Since I’ve been following weather closely, March 2018 is the only time I’ve seen non-trivial snowfall amounts after March 20th or so (I got lucky with that one as I was living in Florida then, but came up to visit my parents coincidentally that weekend). GSO also got a coating of snow in early April 2019, though.

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superjames1992 said:
On an unrelated note, as a wintry weather lover I think I’d rather live somewhere where snow is more or less impossible (peninsular Florida, etc.) than somewhere like CAE. In peninsular Florida, you just basically don’t pay attention to snow and know you have no shot at it, but in somewhere like CAE (and I suppose this applies to a lot of the Deep South, as well), you are far enough north where you have a shot but it’s so rare for those shots to convert into anything good. I think that would drive me mad. But we have plenty of Deep South winter lovers here, so perhaps I would adjust. I know even experiencing that dusting of snow in Tallahassee was more thrilling on some level than a lot of much larger snowfalls up this way, given the novelty and rarity of it. I would’ve given up a lot to experience the Gulf Coast Blizzard in Pensacola or New Orleans, for example.
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I’m far enough south where getting measurable snow/sleet is highly unlikely in any one winter. Only 15% (~1 in 7) of the last 150 winters have had 0.1”+ snow/sleet. (I’m excluding measurable ZR). That’s easily low enough to not expect any in any one winter and to not be disappointed if it ends up like 85% of winters and like, for example, the 13 straight winters 1996-7 through 2008-9. So, my expectation is for none. But if there is any like the 0.75” I just got, the thrill down here for me and other snow lovers is beyond description as the extra thrill is largely created by that rarity.
 
NoSnowATL said:
He was………
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Confused Wait What GIF
 
Well the last of the snow will be gone in an hour or two thanks to 60 degree temps. Although I was very happy with the half foot+ i got, it sure is sad to see it go. I sure hope we get another shot... a board wide hit hopefully. Its frustrating how you can have board wide hits show up on the ensembles but they never actually come to fruition

BTW this is day 10 of having sleet and/or snow on he ground. That's a hell of an accomplishment around these parts.
 
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Makeitsnow said:
Well the last of the snow will be gone in an hour or two thanks to 60 degree temps. Although I was very happy with the half foot+ i got, it sure is sad to see it go. I sure hope we get another shot... a board wide hit hopefully. Its frustrating how you can have board wide hits show up on the ensembles but they never actually come to fruition

BTW this is day 10 of having sleet and/or snow on he ground. That's a hell of an accomplishment around these parts.
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It's amazing how fast this year's event disappeared compared to last year's. I'll happily take seeing powder snow twice in two years as I genuinely thought I never would again in the south, especially not deep in it, but it doesn't have staying power.

I genuinely do think my next request has now switched to a Jan 2011 like event and I still keep my power (which I did then in spite of a good bit of freezing rain after I started as snow).
 
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