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Misc General Banter Thread

Weathernext2 is on stormvista??
jackendrickwx said:
Watching the 12z roll in now on stormvista. @bouncycorn has greater capabilities than me for this. I am not a model whiz.

Something I will note about whatever it shows at 12z (or any z) is that it is a pretty coarse, 64 member ensemble. It is good, but I am not going to be trusting its 2m temps verbatim. I don't trust its snow maps either necessarily, i just don't know if it can resolve a borderline dynamic cooling scenario like this. Maybe it can, we'll see
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bouncycorn said:
This is a very interesting discussion to be had!

Probabilistic forecasting is important for meteorologists who are proving context to meteorologists, like NWS briefing TV Mets.. but probabilities are very confusing to the general public. Most, especially the uneducated, just want to know WHAT will happen (deterministic) while the atmosphere is inherently a chaotic, probabilistic system.

How do you communicate literally probabilistic elements to a public that requires deterministic forecasts? It is a tough challenge. Many just go with the probabilities to cover their rear ends, but it may not be the best way to communicate with most of the general public.
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Good question. In some ways, until we have the technology to provide a highly accurate forecast, the public has a responsibility, at least I believe they do, to understand that the forecast is uncertain and will change, as has always been the case..

I honestly don't think we are getting smarter as a society, which is a conversation in and of itself for another time. So until we have the technology to say with near certainty that it is going to snow 2.5" in Raleigh on Sunday before turning to rain, the best way is just to use your knowledge, use your experience, and use the tools available to make the best forecast possible. If it's wrong, we all still go on living.

Catering to the lowest common denominator and incorporating CYA into the equation just lowers everything across the board. Forecasting a chaotic, unobservable 3 dimensional global body is hard. There's no way around that. The public's erroneous expectations and the pressures of corporate media won't change that, IMO.
 
jackendrickwx said:
i was just as surprised as you haha
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It's on the regular hobbyist account?

I am surprised because it was only released to a handful of people under a very strict research/non-commercial license. So I am wondering if they have some kind of commercial deal with Google.
 
bouncycorn said:
It's on the regular hobbyist account?

I am surprised because it was only released to a handful of people under a very strict research/non-commercial license. So I am wondering if they have some kind of commercial deal with Google.
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It is. Not every field is available at my tier though
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Nah, no chance but you can if you want idc. I’ve met the guy, sorry if no one else knew their childhood hero had skeletons. What’s he gonna read this and file some slander lawsuit over a faceless dude on a weather forum? Who cares toughen up it’s 2026. I mean newsflash people say “mean stuff” on the internet


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Stop being stupid
 
Although it would be peak GFS to stick to its guns until earlier today, only to fold at the last minute...naturally, right as all other guidance comes back to the NW solution. I still think I am out though.
 
I can already feel my excitement as I’m watching those models slowly but surely move back NW the next 2 days.
 
1768504363244.png

Always nice to see that familiar snow hole over me. I can look North, East, and South (literally everywhere but due West of me and see that others may have to worry about nasty road conditions and wintry mess. Glad I live in the upstate where everyone else has a chance but I never have to worry about any of that. I've always been able to chase to the mountains; but now I can also chase to the coast, to my friend in Pensacola, or even CAE if I want to see snow. And of course TN and northern MS/AL. GSP is a perfect place for snow birds from anywhere; even coastal and panhandle residents looking to escape the cold and snow.
 
Rain Cold said:
6 pages overnight discussing the 0z GFS with is in the process of flatlining today. We need some real snow really bad.

Temps are just a killer.
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Yes, this has been literally happening all week! One Ukie Ens run, but other than that, it's been just waiting for the GFS to fold.

Rain Cold said:
This is our storm. Remember Rain Cold said so.

View attachment 183773
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Let's go! High to our north this time, as it should be!

GaStorm said:
I'm curios as to why models think there won't be as much overrunning. Wasn't the airmass drier last year?
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Seriously, overrunning rarely happens anymore, and when they do with cold artic fronts, it's usually flurries, or quick minor dustings. Miller A/B or go home.
 
I’m just being pessimistic, expecting nothing but if we get something it will be great. This has gone from glory to hope!
 
I need Bouncycorn to keep talking like he is if it means models will jump 150-200 miles NW an hour or two after he says they are locked in.

We have quiet to war of opinions going on in here and I love it.
 
Alright guys, mentally prepare yourselves for the 18z NAM because it has a history with over-amping the storm initially, usually within the first two runs of it showing the event and then a drastic decrease. If the decrease happens, well I guess it's not the end of the world since we have 3 days, but if it keeps the storm in a similar state? We might be in for a decent happy hour, who knows? Looks like the NAM was one of the better models earlier on to forecast the heavy wet snows of Dec 8, 2017 from a day in advance, but that's probably one of the best performances that was closer to what actually happened during a storm. The rest of the times it seems to overdo storms, but we shall see.
 
HailCore said:
Alright guys, mentally prepare yourselves for the 18z NAM because it has a history with over-amping the storm initially, usually within the first two runs of it showing the event and then a drastic decrease. If the decrease happens, well I guess it's not the end of the world since we have 3 days, but if it keeps the storm in a similar state? We might be in for a decent happy hour, who knows? Looks like the NAM was one of the better models earlier on to forecast the heavy wet snows of Dec 8, 2017 from a day in advance, but that's probably one of the best performances that was closer to what actually happened during a storm. The rest of the times it seems to overdo storms, but we shall see.
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The NAMs best performance was in February of 2015 when it slaughtered the other models and the dreams of many of us never to be recovered.
 
verify for once you archaic piece of garbage

Buffalo Bills GIF
 
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