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Misc General Banter Thread

jackendrickwx said:
GiggleI still watch nc state football
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Laughing Out Loud Lol GIF by Teletubbies
 
SD said:
No joke, its odd behavior, it has to be some kind of adopted online persona some of these guys can't be real
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Some watch the roller coaster of the individual deterministics and live and die by them! I think they all want cold/snow but play their cards on the odds and that’s fair but not reasonable! Sun has to shine on a dogs butt once in a while!
 
SD said:
No joke, its odd behavior, it has to be some kind of adopted online persona some of these guys can't be real
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Oh yeah some of the stuff I read up near NYC last night was crazy too. Grown adults were so mad it wasn't performing like _ model said

And they actually got a decent snow after all that mess is the crazy part

But it's funny the same people they blame for the wrong forecast or say I wish I could have a job that is wrong 90 percent of the time also believe they control it the next week... I see it here a lot haha
 
SD said:
Well when I complained I didn't want a warm Christmas i was met with a summation of deal with it every winter torches. All I have to say is I'm sorry but every winter has cold.
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True. The weather will be what it be, but I don't get cheering for cold & boring weather to happen. It's the worst of both worlds.

At least with 70s/80s (even 60s) and boring weather, it's warm enough to do outdoor activities without having to layer up with under clothes and jackets/coats.

That's JMHO though. I know everybody has their own preferences.
 
I’m definitely taking the boat out tomorrow.

I would think we would see spring start coming north soon, I mean it has been exceptionally warm, with very few days forecast to be below the freezing mark.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
GFS gets be below freezing twice (30-31 degrees) thru 340hr

Down bad

Pattern in jeopardy 💀
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Nah Jimmy, imho. :) Besides the 12/29-31 cold/temporary +PNA, which I’m so looking forward to, the models have been consistent on a longer term +PNA in the means but not til starting toward the end of the 8-14. Thus, that NWS 8-14 map, which covers Jan 4-10, covers a period that’s still too soon to show up as showing significantly colder potential for the period averaged out.

The pretty +PNA I’ve been showing on the Euro Weeklies isn’t til 1/12-18. That period is still 16-22 days away. The cold could start 1-3 days earlier but even if so that would mean the start isn’t til 13-15 days away.

Patience is recommended, folks. Otherwise you’d be liable to drive yourselves crazy.
 
Does this look like a warm mid-Jan pattern?

Ext EPS mean H5 1/17:
IMG_6560.png

Ext EPS mean 850s 1/14:
IMG_6562.png

Ext EPS mean SLP with anomalies 1/14 shows Arctic high already dropping into the US:
IMG_6566.png

Ext GEFS 850s 1/14:
IMG_6564.png

Ext GEFS mean SLP w/anoms 1/14 shows Arctic high already dropping down into the US:
IMG_6565.png

And keep in mind that these models have been significantly too warm with quite a -PNA bias in the means the last 90 days!
 
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GaWx said:
Does this look like a warm mid-Jan pattern?

Ext EPS mean H5 1/17:
View attachment 180164

Ext EPS mean 850s 1/14:
View attachment 180165

Ext EPS mean SLP with anomalies 1/14 shows Arctic high already dropping into the US:
View attachment 180168

Ext GEFS 850s 1/14:
View attachment 180166

Ext GEFS mean SLP w/anoms 1/14 shows Arctic high already dropping down into the US:
View attachment 180167
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No but it’s hard to take anything seriously when it’s over 2 weeks away.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
No but it’s hard to take anything seriously when it’s over 2 weeks away.
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Good point about not taking “seriously” due to inherent model limited skill level out that far. However, limited skill is much more skill than no skill. The EW in recent years have done decently when they’ve had a potent and consistent cold signal several weeks out, especially when it is showing it being caused by a notable pattern change.

I’d much rather the longer term guidance show a cold/+PNA pattern than the opposite. Mid-Jan is the first period this winter for which the extended ensembles have consistently shown anything resembling this cold/+PNA pattern in the weekly means out past 2 weeks.

Despite the limited skill, the ext models are clearly seeing something for then. When I keep in mind they these models have had a significant warm bias in the E US and a notable -PNA bias and that every -ENSO -PNA Dec since 1983-4 has transitioned to a +PNA in Jan, I feel pretty darn good!
 
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