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Tropical Flo's baby near Bermuda: could come back to SE early next wk

GaWx

GaWx

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A portion of the remnants of Flo (call it Flo’s baby) continue to show up on all models moving SE toward Bermuda today before making a clockwise turn back to westerly this weekend as it becomes positioned below a 200 mb high that moves offshore in the W Atlantic tomorrow and sticks around near Bermuda into early next week. This disturbance then approaches the SE US coast Mon before either recurving just offshore or coming into the coast by Tue. This general scenario has been showing up on model consensus for many days now only as a weak system. Still, no model at this time brings it in as more than a trough that ups shower activity. So, conditions aren’t expected to be favorable tropically. However, shear doesn’t appear to be strong as there are no westerlies nearby due to this strong 200 mb Bermuda high to Flo’s baby’s north keeping the westerlies away for the next 4-5 days and instead providing easterlies. Also, SSTs off the SE coast are still very warm (midsummer warmth of 29-30C). So, this will probably get some attention at the BBs over the weekend whether or not warranted.
 
2 PM TWO: it made the TWO but it isn't being referred to as Flo remnants

A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds is located
about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward
at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry
air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire
some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south
and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
 
GaWx said:
2 PM TWO: it made the TWO but it isn't being referred to as Flo remnants

A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds is located
about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward
at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry
air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire
some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south
and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Click to expand...
And (although the models don't seem too impressed and hopefully none will effect land) after a lull the Atlantic says "hey I'm still here"

Anyway Flo's baby has my interest that's for sure...

two_atl_5d0.png
 
metwannabe said:
And (although the models don't seem too impressed and hopefully none will effect land) after a lull the Atlantic says "hey I'm still here"

Anyway Flo's baby has my interest that's for sure...

two_atl_5d0.png
Click to expand...
Just when I thought it would calm down, we get 4 areas to watch again. The medium risk one I can see happening, but the off Africa one and the main one we are talking about here seem to be unlikely of forming into a new storm from the way I see it.
 
Flo's remnants sure don't look non-tropical as NHC says it is. Not sure why they are holding back. If this was anywhere else or not the remains of Flo they would of classified it by now. Just look at it, it's over warm water with a very large well develop circulation and excellent outflow to the east. I would bet if a plane flew in we would have Flo back as a tropical storm. The only limiting factor right now is the w to nw shear.
 
The two most likely scenarios imo based on looking at model trends, assuming it becomes a TC, is for either a NC landfall or a recurve a little E of the SE US. I give only a small chance of FL or GA landfall and only a moderate chance for SC as of now. One of the reasons for this prediction is that models are often too far left in the SE US due to maintaining too strong a high to the north. Also, NC and NE SC stick out so much more and are much more vulnerable than lower SC south in this potential situation of a recurving TC as it nears the SE.

Edit: Also, with 98L already likely too weak on models, a quicker recurve might occur. However, if the unusual situation of models underplaying the ridge's persistence were to allow it to go further west than expected, then very warm 29-30C SSTs to the south of Flo's path would be crossed and would put further south at risk.
 
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Idk how much longer 98L can hang on based on that sheer, per Philippe in the link below. He said it too though, in a follow-up tweet... If that convection can keep going? Oh boy some folks are gonna be upset next week, and rightfully so!



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Nice flareup of convection this morning. If it holds through the afternoon then that would be concerning. In a low shear environment and what appears to be a weak LLC still present this could ramp up quickly IF convection can sustain.
 
snowlover91 said:
Nice flareup of convection this morning. If it holds through the afternoon then that would be concerning. In a low shear environment and what appears to be a weak LLC still present this could ramp up quickly IF convection can sustain.
Click to expand...
It certainly looks good for an invest but it also appears thunderstorms are starting to decrease... let's see if they fire back up
 
metwannabe said:
It certainly looks good for an invest but it also appears thunderstorms are starting to decrease... let's see if they fire back up
Click to expand...

Yeah we are heading for d-min now so we will have to see if the convection can hold or not. It certainly was surprising to see such a big flareup this morning and with an anticyclone overhead it wouldn't take much to get this going again. The good news is shear should increase some tomorrow and especially Wednesday as the cold front approaches so it doesn't have long to try to organize and will likely just brush the OBX.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah we are heading for d-min now so we will have to see if the convection can hold or not. It certainly was surprising to see such a big flareup this morning and with an anticyclone overhead it wouldn't take much to get this going again. The good news is shear should increase some tomorrow and especially Wednesday as the cold front approaches so it doesn't have long to try to organize and will likely just brush the OBX.
Click to expand...
There is still a good amount of convection right now and even if this doesn't develop there a many people along ENC that do not want or need to see any of that moisture make it inland.... as you mentioned with the cold front approaching it should only brush the OBX but dang it, going to be close

goes16_ir_nwatl_201809241635.jpg
 
Yep it's maintaining convection pretty well considering we are heading into d-min. If this rain makes it inland it will not help with recovery efforts and areas that are still without power. GEFS is taking the center just inland.
98L_gefs_latest.png
 
EPS is interesting as well. A close OBX brush or hit with some members intensifying this into a TS and then looping this back around again. Florence just won't go away..
EPS.JPG
 
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