let’s go brother!
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rburrel2
Member
12km NAM has almost 1/2 inch of liquid here. 3km has 0.0 liquid here. 
RDUHeatIsland
Member
Honestly looks like NAM actually backed off a little on the warm nose
It did ever so slightly, good now we've stopped the bleeding northward of waa hopefully
my understanding is that it has an effect when the convection is aligned generally perpendicular to the flow. honestly on reflection this isn't a "perfect" example but notice the convection is parallel to the coast. you want convection to be generally aligned with the typical SW flow coming off the gulf, which typically helps. What you risk in this case is storms remaining stationary over the gulf, forming a MCS, a cold pool, their own mesolow even... i don't think it's a death knell it just saps resources like a sucker stem on a tomato plant. and in this model depiction it may be why the foothills/upstate are so dry
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Like someone said yesterday.... dont sleep on sleet. You get 3-4" Snow and put an inch of sleet on it and coating of ICE its gonna hang around. My little 1.5 Inch SN/IP from Jan event legit hung tough for 5-6 days in shade
blueheronNC
Member
QPF absolutely cooking on the NAM. Raleigh at 0.8” already through 10pm tomorrow
you sure?
I know @griteater did a nice write up in here about soundings, thermals, snow/sleet/zr with temps through the column. IIRC even though this sounding shows sleet, seems most dendrites would make it to the surface and would still be mostly snow. Am I wrong about that? or just wishful thinking? Lol
It’s crazy how this almost always works.
RAH might be rethinking the WWAs after that run. Even with mixing, that is nearing QPF bomb territory so it’s a very high impact event. Of course, it’s the NAM so maybe we disregard.
there’s still a lot of moisture in the low to mid levels as DGZs lower on the nam after then “main show”. Might be light shallow snow showers through Thurs night
ForsythSnow
Moderator
We got pretty close to wet snow sounding here all through the NAM. 36 degrees at the surface with heavy snow through 900 makes no sense to stay at that.
iGRXY
Member
0.5-0.7" QPF just to our west in Georgia now on that NAM run. MBY is at 0.25". I really think we can squeeze out an additional 0.1-0.25" of QPF. The 500mb jet and WAA FGEN supports the idea of more QPF across the Western Carolinas.
Fairly subtle on the EPS but you see the atlantic ridge flexing and the 50/50 retreating a little. For Raleigh it's a balance of more precip and then probably more sleet. I would rather have more precip and deal with whatever and have more folks score.
interestedclimatist
Member
I like the NAM it’s more accurate than the HRRR
RDUHeatIsland
Member
Yeah, it's close to keeping Durham all snow. Had sleet on the VA border 6z. 3km looks amazing too
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There is a ton of warm advection in that sounding, that hodograph is lol.
Just a lot going on a way that would support more QPF 
Cary_Snow95
Member
And still going here lol
Different type of storm but 12/17 showed me what wins with a column like that.
moyock nc better pray this nam warm nose doesn't come into fruition
Worry more about warm nose than precip if you’re central/eastern nc.
Yeah I disregarded the snownado potential Lol
12z NAM even brings a light / moderate event to DC. I swear, if they get more snow than RDU…
I figure that depiction is overdone, but it gives hope for more QPF. Certainly worries me about mixing more, though, but we gotta risk getting burnt to get the good stuff.
I figure that depiction is overdone, but it gives hope for more QPF. Certainly worries me about mixing more, though, but we gotta risk getting burnt to get the good stuff.
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4" of sleet would be awesome...would be an ice skating rink outside and great sledding for the kids.
Yeah 3k NAM a lot snowier then the NAM, hopefully it's higher resolution is better and more accurate.
Trend of last five runs of the NAM. It’s clear something is going on.
Theoretically, yes. In this system, there are bigger dynamics at play also though including strong upper level divergence due to being in the right entrance region of a ~200 kt jet streak favorably positioned over the Mid-Atlantic, especially in northeastern NC / southeastern VA.
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I mean SREF has done the same thing so I am not that surprised
Oconeexman
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Here we go
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AIFS also had another increase and has all of the triangle at least at a quarter inch with more as you go east.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Matt East on American. He is not wrong in all honesty jmo..... this data shouldn't be available without a License or Business license where like News channels would pay for it, and NWS would have it on lock n key. Hes 100% Correct bc had you just been watching tv for info you'd never consider this a bust bc you wouldn't know. Myself included do this for fun and some of yall in here I could totally see doing it as more than a hobby, but unless you're fulltime employed by a news station or NWS it doesn't need to be available. Or atleast to the extent it is, it makes their job more difficult bc bozos post stuff like Sat runs and then come after them perosnally ect. Sorry if wrong room....but figured everyone could benefit from his post and this room has most traffic currently
Very interesting radar image lol. Lots of shallow snow as the northern stream ULL moves nearby 
iGRXY
Member
Like come on now, there should be more QPF with that much FGEN WAA.